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Thread: Kentucky Derby
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05-03-2017, 09:49 PM #21
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05-04-2017, 10:25 AM #22
So where to put mud money? The forecast is not very conducive to a fast track.
Do speed numbers diminish as an indicator on a slow course?It's a still great day to be a Muskie, but a sad day to be a supporting member of this board.
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05-04-2017, 10:59 AM #23
Let's all go in on a winner together. Who's in?
I took a relatively mysterious 1A Bob Baffert trained horse named Arrogate when I was at the Travers last August. He turned out to be pretty decent.Last edited by SemajParlor; 05-04-2017 at 11:02 AM.
Run the table.
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05-04-2017, 11:07 AM #24
If we're going to all go in together, let's make that winner Sonneteer, then, since it will likely pay the most of any horse on the board.
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05-05-2017, 08:01 AM #25
EMP. Mud Money: A muddy track slows down some horses and works to the advantage of others. There's no overall effect on dirt. Look at Exaggerator last year. He won prep races on off/muddy tracks, then won the Preakness on same. Was bested by others on dirt.
This year the most recent major preps have been run on fast tracks. There are no recent, reliable clues in those races. A quick look at the Past Performances reveals that a number of KYD handled wet tracks at some point but only once and not in a stakes setting for the most part.
If you had to say one, look at Gormley. Got his best speed rating on a sloppy track in the 7 furlongs (sprint distance) Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita back in January.
Go. Sonneteer: A late closer who could blow up Trifectas and Supers. Win seems aggressive. Have a ball!
SemajParlor: Nice on Arrogate. You are unlikely to find 11-1 ever again.
Good racing luck!Warmly,
"Mel"
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05-05-2017, 08:21 AM #26
The white Randy Moss, was on the PMT podcast this morning, and likes Lookin At Lee in exotics. He doesn't like Thundersnow.
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05-05-2017, 10:11 AM #27
This is such an open field.
Last edited by SemajParlor; 05-05-2017 at 10:17 AM.
Run the table.
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05-05-2017, 10:12 AM #28
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05-05-2017, 10:54 AM #29
A guy who helped me with my handicapping -- and I need all the help I can get -- once told me, "I never try to talk a guy out of betting a longshot."
So I don't disagree, Semaj. And I do like his improvement. And I like what Keith Desormeaux does with young horses. He had Exagerrator last year.
I'd invest by including Sonneteer in exotics -- exactas, too, as you point out -- before I'd invest in win bets.
That's the great thing about this race -- you can cash big tickets in ways that go beyond just picking the winner: "Have a ball!"
Box him with Classic Empire!
Good racing luck!Warmly,
"Mel"
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05-05-2017, 02:10 PM #30
A little Oaks chatter :
I'm heavy on Paradise Woods, as she should win. So that means she probably won't.
I also sprinkled some action on Miss Sky Warrior. On fire.Run the table.
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