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Thread: Kentucky Derby

  1. #11
    Sophomore Mel Cooley XU'81's Avatar
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    We're at the end of a mixed up Derby Trail. For three months, a group of promising and interesting enough horses have taken turns making one stride forward, then taking one or two strides back. There are any number of horses who could be Alphas in this race who have not distinguished themselves, have not shown consistent improvement, have thrown a really bad prep race or trained like amateurs, and end up leaving a “half-full, half-empty” impression.

    Last year I took out a $70 trifecta ticket (50 cent tri-bets) and cashed a princely $74 winner on the last backup bet in the box . . . when the three favorites finished win, place, show. Four Dollars: The Hard Way.

    In 2017 that ain't gonna happen. There's no horse like Nyquist, last year's winner, hiding in plain sight. There's no American Pharoah, the obvious class. There's no charismatic and talented fan favorite like California Chrome. There’s no I’ll Have Another that we can bet because PaulXU did.

    The 2017 Kentucky Derby will be tricky fun to handicap and bet, great fun to watch, a gas to cash a winner. And, as I always contend, nothing beats being The Guy at the Derby Party with the Solid Opinion.

    And away we go.
    Warmly,
    "Mel"

  2. #12
    Sophomore Mel Cooley XU'81's Avatar
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    Reformat
    Last edited by Mel Cooley XU'81; 05-03-2017 at 01:06 PM.
    Warmly,
    "Mel"

  3. #13
    Sophomore Mel Cooley XU'81's Avatar
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    Ugh. Gonna try to get it on one screen.
    Warmly,
    "Mel"

  4. #14
    Sophomore Mel Cooley XU'81's Avatar
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    1 Lookin At Lee 20-1 Late runner who would fit well in trifectas and superfectas, but for his post position. If I'm counting properly he has passed 31 horses in his last five races. 1 ¼ mile distance gives him plenty of room to pass more on Saturday. The #1 PP is a big problem, of ocurse, even for a late closer. The starting gate is placed at the top of the stretch. The horse in #1 is pointed at the inside rail and has to content with 19 other horses pressing left for position. Lookin at Lee is not meant to race for the lead. He either gets pushed way back or banged around all the way down the first 1/8 mile. Everybody needs racing luck to win the Derby. This ain't it. No horse has hit the board (W/P/S) from PP1 in the past 20 years. Fourth on superfectas . . . . maybe?
    2 Thunder Snow 20-1 Irish-bred winner of the United Arab Emirates Derby in March. Has won three in a row against top flight European competition, one of which was a “Group 1” big deal race he won by five lengths. Won his last race at a distance of 1 3/16 miles. Other horses in this race have never gone longer than 1 1/8. So he has answered the Distance Question. European charts note that he “tracked leaders” in wins – so he doesn't need the lead to win. No missteps in his resume. Glass 1/8th empty? No UAE Derby winner has ever won the KYD. 26% of starters from PP2 have hit the board (W/P/S) in the past 20 years, but no winners. Offers significant value. My longshot.
    3 Fast and Accurate 50-1 Fast and Accurate represents Turfway and the entire Tri-State in the KYD having won the Spiral Stakes at 25-1 in late March. It was his third win in a row. But his speed rating in his final prep was slower than any for a KYD starter. A polytrack and turf horse, his one race on dirt was a 5th place, 11 lengths-back finish in a maiden race last year. His connections have put up $200k to run him in the Derby as a late nominee. “Mel” wishes Fast and Accurate and jockey Channing Hill a safe trip.
    4 Untrapped 30-1 Untrapped has run in four Derby Prep races this year on both the Louisiana and Arkansas loops. Sad to say he has next to nothing but the points to show for it: a 6th, a 3rd, and two seconds – working backwards. He has finished behind a number of horses who will run on Saturday and number who won't. No improvement in speed ratings either. Another Steve Asmussen trainee – and he's among the very, very best. Good luck to the connections.
    5 Always Dreaming 5-1 Always Dreaming will be the post time favorite in the 2017 KYD. He won the Florida Derby by five lengths and is Todd Pletcher's top Derby hopeful. He sports a spotless 3-for-3 record in '17 and has done so while beating progressively better competition and improving his speed figures to solid levels. He has won all three '17 races by open lengths. Won the Florida Derby stylishly. Those looking for faults are pointing to his rambunctious training demeanor since arriving at CD, though his best of 35 workout times on Friday 4/28 shows he can get down to business when asked and that he likes the CD track. He will find himself at the front of the KYD pack through the first half mile. Can he calm down this week and / or avoid being swallowed in a pace riot? Those are your questions.
    6 State of Honor 30-1 Two seconds, a third and 13 lengths back in three KYD preps this spring. Finished behind four horses who will run on Saturday in his prep starts. How is he better than 19 other horses on Saturday?
    7 Girvin 15-1 Girvin won both of his Derby prep races in Louisiana by making the lead at the top of the stretch and lengthening his lead to the wire. This is ideal Derby prep form. Won the Louisiana Derby as favorite, which has been rarity among this group this spring. Acceptable, if not impressive, speed in his wins at Fairgrounds – will look for more at CD. The issue now is that he was treated last week for a quarter crack on his hoof. By all accounts it is healed up and he had a good work. But dealing with even the aftereffects of one during Derby Week is bad luck. Mike Smith is set to ride and is an A+ List Derby jock.
    8 Hence 15-1 Hence is looking like the Wise Guy Horse of KYD '17. He storms into Louisville on the heels of a 4 length win in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico. In that race he showed enormous improvement in his speed rating after a forgettable effort in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in Arkansas and taking four tries to break his maiden. In other words, Hence has run one ( 1 ) race in which he looked like a legit Derby contender. So what gives? Trainer Steve Asmussen gives. And his 103 speed rating in the Sunland is the fastest last race figure among those going postward on Saturday. Is Hence preparing to bounce like a dead cat on Derby Day or is he getting good at the right time? We're about to find out.
    9 Irap 20-1 Irap gets to the Derby by winning the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland as a maiden in April at 31-1. That race was Irap's eight start, with a fourth place, 8 ½ lengths-back finish a month earlier. He had failed to win twice as a favorite at Sunland and Santa Anita, respectively. In the Bluegrass he went to the front and was never seriously challenged by a handful of Derby contenders looking to make statements with strong races. None responded. The word this week is that he looks great and is training great. Not for me. (Pssst: PaulXU: Same owner and trainer as . . . I'll Have Another!)
    10 Gunnevera 15-1 Gunnevera comes to the KYD from the Florida prep circuit with a win, a place, and a show finish last out in the Florida Derby. I'm putting a light line through his FLD since he didn't need either the points or to wear himself dueling Always Dreaming. Gunnevera was taken to the rear in the FLD and passed a lot of horses in the race, but his final speed rating did not advance from previous efforts. Kept closer to the pace at CD he could make a difference in the outcome. While he runs from off the pace, Gunnevera is typically well positioned (first or second) at the stretch to finish the job. He has run in nothing but Graded Stakes (six in all) since last summer and has passed one horse after another in getting three wins, a place, and a show in those six. Great post position draw. Must be accounted for. P.S.: Venezuelan trainer Antonio Sano has been kidnapped twice . . . kidnapped twice . . . in the political violence that engulfs his country. A fabulously successful trainer in his homeland, Sano had to rebuild his life and career in South Florida. I have some Venezuelan friends. It would be great to see Sano notch this win for his country and countrymen and women.
    Warmly,
    "Mel"

  5. #15
    Sophomore Mel Cooley XU'81's Avatar
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    11 Battle of Midway 30-1 Battle of Midway didn't race as a two year-old. The Curse of Apollo (last to win the KYD without racing as a two year-old in 1882) stipulates that this DQ's a horse from winning on the First Saturday in May. I don't think Battle of Midway will win the race, but he enters it with two wins, a place and a show in four starts. In addition he has earned higher speed ratings as he has stretched to longer distances. He ran out of gas in the Santa Anita Derby last out after getting involved in a hot pace duel. His hitting the board will depend upon resisting that temptation on Saturday. But does he have enough seasoning to keep his cool and stick to business running with 19 other G1 horses? If you like him, I won't try to talk you out of him.
    12 Sonneteer 50-1 Experienced 10-race veteran who is still looking for his first win. It has been a long time since a maiden won the Kentucky Derby: Brokers Tip in 1933. Won't win the race, but some like him to get up late for a piece. Has hit the board on 6 of 10 tries. Not my cup of tea. Too many other horses.
    13 J Boys Echo 20-1 Last year I made Brody's Cause, another Dale Roman / Albaugh Stable entry (at 25-1), a key horse in my Derby wagering. I'll pass this year on J Boys Echo from the same connections. Another horse who was showing improvement coming into the inscrutable Bluegrass Stakes who laid an egg that day – finishing fourth behind three other horses that will run in the KYD. I'm a Dale Romans fan, but no, thanks. Underneath in exotics if you must.
    14 Classic Empire 4-1 Classic Empire is last year's 2 year-old champion and son of Pioneer of the Nile, the stallion who brought you American Pharoah. Capped his undefeated 2 year-old campaign with a speedy win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November. Two of those 2 year-old wins came at Churhhill Downs -- has the horse for course angle. Started his unanimous favorite Derby prep season in the Holy Bull where he lathered out in the post parade, then finished third giving up almost five lengths in the stretch. Then he got sick and couldn't train. Then he got headstrong and wouldn't train. Then trainer Mark Casse moved the animal to a minor training center to allow him to get his mind right. Apparently it worked, as he then came running late to win the Arkansas Derby by a half-length with a modest speed fig. In 2017, that makes you the Derby morning line favorite. Will be running on just three weeks rest which shouldn't be a problem for a top-shelf 3 year-old except for his spectacularly up-and-down prep season. You won't win money on Derby Day without fully accounting for him – one way or another.
    15 McCraken 5-1 McCraken has three wins in three starts at CD making him a great horse-for-course play in the Derby. He won his first start of the spring in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, but tweaked his ankle before the TB Derby in March and had to skip the race. He made the next available in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, but finished third as the betting favorite. With that race in him, he has been training well at CD with clockers especially impressed by the strong finishes he is putting on his works. McCraken's running style puts him back from the pace – a plus in the KYD – but he moves when asked, passes horses throughout the race and is well-positioned at the stretch call. This is ideal classic distance racing form. You don't win the Derby by passing lots of horses in the stretch. Winners start passing horses on the far turn, make the pace at the top of the stretch and roll from there. A number of horses will run the best races of their careers on Saturday and finish off the board. If McCraken runs his best race on Saturday – he wins.
    16 Tapwrit 20-1 Tapwrit is another KYD entrant whose Bluegrass Stakes performance (5th by 11 lengths) has clouded his form and disrupted a promising Derby Trail progression. There was plenty to like until the Bluegrass: three wins and improving speed figures including a win in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby and a well-run second to McCraken in the G3 Sam Davis. Put a line through his Bluegrass and you can see him running any kind of race in the KYD. Worth a shot.
    17 Irish War Cry 6-1 Irish War Cry is a pace-pressing son of Curlin with two stylish Derby Trail wins – the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and the Wood Memorial in NYC last out in April. In between those two was a dreadful 7th – 21 lengths back – in the Fountain of Youth. Half full? He's straightened out and is headed to the Derby as the horse he was meant to be. Half empty? Derby-winning horses never, ever, lose a prep race by 21 lengths. He is fast and holds or lengthens leads he achieves. To get 1 ¼ miles he'll need to resist the temptation to battle directly on the pace in the first half mile. He wired the field in the Holy Bull, but did not need the lead to win the Wood. His breeding – Curlin was a champion racehorse and is today a leading stallion – is textbook for a classic contender. Draw a line through the FOY fiasco and he's a perfect 4 for 4. I like him. A lot.
    18 Gormley 15-1 Gormley has two wins in three '17 Santa Anita starts: A speedy first outing win in the Sham was followed by a disappointing 4th – 9 ¾ back – in the San Felipe. Reclaimed winning form in the Santa Anita Derby with a late, hang-tough performance. Some thought that race came back slow, so his stock failed to rally. Has won 4 of 6 lifetime. Off the board in the other two. Same name as Mother Cooley XU'81's childhood dentist. Can't recommend or steer you away.
    19 Practical Joke 20-1 Practical Joke is, to my eyes, the biggest enigma in this field. He performed great as a 2 year-old and has run . . . quite well . . . in his two second-place Derby prep races this spring. Is there a breakthrough coming? Highly regarded trainer Chad Brown's job since Practical Joke's second-place canter down the stretch behind Irap in the Bluegrass is figuring out how to keep the animal from hanging. Passing horses in the stretch wasn't a problem during his 2 year-old campaign: PJ won two Grade I races as a 2 year-old in the stretch. Starting from PP19 will give jockey Joel Rosario a perfect view of the field and pick of racing position. Horses are herd animals. Some like to run with the pack, some like to lead it. Nevertheless: offers value for exactas, tris, and supers.
    20 Patch 30-1 Pollard's Vision was the one eyed colt who finished 17th in the 2004 KYD. He was named for Red Pollard, Seabiscuit's jockey who, you will recall, lost vision in one eye as a child. Patch is another one eyed colt (I'm not making any of this up) who will run in the KYD on Saturday. Patch is a lightly raced horse with legitimate speed. He has a win and two places including a second in the Louisiana Derby. That's it. He is a horse of impeccable breeding but sold at auction for only $50k. That's weird. Anybody know why? He's trained by Todd Pletcher. By all accounts he's a “try hard” colt but it feels like he's being rushed in this position. But, hey: you earn the points to go to Louisville, you put the horse on the van. I bet he'll do better than Pollard's Vision and, if he doesn't suffer a nervous breakdown from the experience, could be a dandy three year-old later in the year.
    Warmly,
    "Mel"

  6. #16
    Supporting Member paulxu's Avatar
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    Mel, thanks for all that! Of course I don't understand racing, but it's great reading.

    I'm always dreaming, so that looks good; and the Irish for a long shot.

    Meanwhile, I'm Waiting for Another, as I'll Have Another is standing at stud in Japan of all places.
    Don't think his offspring are quite ready for the Derby yet, but I'll be watching.
    ...he went up late, and I was already up there.

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Xville View Post
    Not as big of a deal as one might think according to the people in the know down here. Heck it might even be an advantage for him in that he won't be able to see all the traffic at the beginning of the race. The scary part would have been if he were slotted in the 1 or 2 post. It is bad enough for a horse with two good eyes. Just to quickly explain, if you look straight ahead from the one or two post out toward the track, a horse in those two posts, actually needs to turn a bit right while everyone else is turning inward or left..thats why those two post positions are so awful for the derby. With one eye, and not being able to really locate the rail, it could have been absolutely tragic to be honest.
    Interesting.
    Run the table.

  8. #18
    Supporting Member Emp's Avatar
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    I just love Racing Form Dialect. Thanks, Mel!!
    It's a still great day to be a Muskie, but a sad day to be a supporting member of this board.

  9. #19
    Supporting Member waggy's Avatar
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    How can ya not love "Release the McCracken". I'd bet money just on his name alone.

  10. #20
    Sophomore Mel Cooley XU'81's Avatar
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    Latest, and last, Derby Watch thoughts from Privman and Watchmaker. Knowledgable and helpful handicapping for each horse in 20 words or less. How do they do it?

    And, oh, yeah . . . Did you know Irish War Cry is a New Jersey-bred. Heh!

    Good racing luck!
    Warmly,
    "Mel"

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