XU v. UC: Great Defense = Win

[markchal]

Given that we're on the road, we're prone to scoring droughts, and Uc feels due for one, this is the least optimistic I've been in awhile for a Crosstown win.

[xuwin]

Beating UC will require our best effort.
Our offensive statistics are not that dissimilar:
UC: PPG: 77. FG %. 47.6. FT% 66.8. 3PT % 33.9. RB: 39
XU: PPG: 76. FG % 45.0 . FT % 69.3 . 3PT % 32.6 . RB:39
The key is mitigating home court advantage.
UC averages : 77.3 points per game. 86. 5 points at home. 62.9 points away.
XU averages: 76.1 points per game. 79.3 at home. 71.6 away.
If we hold UC close to their away average and we score our away average, we win.
If we score our away average and UC scores their home average, we lose by 15.
Even if we score 10 points above our away average and they score their home average , we lose by 5.
We have to play our best defense to win.
Pick our 5 players that best match up defensively with theirs and accept any offensive limitations in that line up.
If we can hold UC to 70 points we can win.
If they get over 80: "wait till next year".

Those offensive numbers show just how weak their home schedule has been to date. I think UC is a very good team but it's hard to tell just how good considering their schedule strength. They are definitely deeper than we are. They can handle foul problem much easier than us.

[nuts4xu]

At the end of the game, if we have scored more points than UC, we will definitely win this game.

[xuwin]

At the end of the game, if we have scored more points than UC, we will definitely win this game.

This game will make Xavier great again.

[xufan2434]

Given that we're on the road, we're prone to scoring droughts, and Uc feels due for one, this is the least optimistic I've been in awhile for a Crosstown win.

Would definitely agree with this. We'll see. Even though they won yesterday, I still feel uneasy about the way they're playing. Which isn't great heading into this one. I just keep telling myself that Mack owns Mick and it gives me some re-assurance haha

[drudy23]

JP - please be less careless.
Ed - don't try to be the hero with careless drives and offensive fouls
Tre - no disappearing act
Everyone Else (including fans) - Escalate The Hate

This will be a tough one to pull out. They have to win eventually right? While UC is improved on the offensive end, they haven't seen great defenses. Getting them frustrated on the offensive end will pay dividends.

[Juice]

Those offensive numbers show just how weak their home schedule has been to date. I think UC is a very good team but it's hard to tell just how good considering their schedule strength. They are definitely deeper than we are. They can handle foul problem much easier than us.

Kenpom.com tells you exactly how good a team's numbers are against their schedule they play. I don't know why everyone acts like the answers aren't out there.

[XAVI3R23]

Trevon has had 5 TOTAL points in the two games he has played against uc. If he doesn't get to at least 15 IMO X has a very slim chance, the help just isn't consistently there as it was in years past. X needs someone else to score besides Macura and Sumner as well and I think that guy might be Bernard. Absolutely can not go on a drought from deep like we have some tendencies to do on the road this year. Very nervous about this game but X has all the talent and more to beat this UC team. Time to put Mylesgate behind us and start winning some important games!!

[GOX]

Not all members are Kenyon subscribers and many like me don't understand all of his metrics.
But, as best as I can tell, UC 's opponents have , on average the 58th best offense and the 217th best ( worst ) defense.
XU's opponents have the 22nd best offense and the 28th best ( worse) defense.
So based on Strength of Scheduel alone the competition XU has faced is vastly superior to UC's competition on both ends of the court.
Extrapolate from there.

[kyxu]

So based on Strength of Scheduel alone the competition XU has faced is vastly superior to UC's competition on both ends of the court.
Extrapolate from there.

Understatement of the year. Having said that, our competition while playing in the A-10 was vastly inferior to UC's Big East slate, but that didn't stop us from beating them on a regular basis.