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  1. #5841
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    Quote Originally Posted by boozehound View Post
    I think people's individual day-to-day experiences can make it seem like this is good for Trump if, particularly you live suburban or rural Ohio / Kentucky / Indiana etc. and rarely interact with minorities. I used to live on the West Side of Cincinnati - I know that mentality well.

    Many of our major cities are burning and we are still dealing with a Pandemic and likely recession. It's difficult to see any of these factors helping an incumbent President get reelected. When you sprinkle in the fact that Trump is incapable of saying the right things, it seems like an easy avenue to attack him on. Trump and his base spent the first 3 years touting the strength of the economy as evidence of his greatness. He is continuing to whip is base into a frenzy, but I'm not sure how much more engagement he can get from them.

    The people that really swung the last election for him (an election in which he lost the Popular vote by 3MM votes).

    Minority turnout was low: Black voter turnout dropped precipitously for the first time in 20 years. Turnout declined for 66.6% to 59.9%. This was a big help in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    Women didn't vote as expected: Specifically suburban white women. The Clinton campaign thought that they would easily engage and carry

    Blue Collar workers (generally union influenced): Specifically in Michigan and Wisconsin. Voted Red for the first time in a while.

    Trump's Base: They turned out to vote, and should be expected to in 2020.

    Minority voter turnout could be Trump's worst enemy in 2020.

    I live in New Jersey but many of the people I interact and work with live in and around Philadelphia. Typically either in the city or in the affluent suburbs. None of them think this reflects well on Trump. Honestly I don't see how you could, whether you agree with the protesters or now.
    I'm not convinced at all that minority voter turnout will suddenly be improved when the choices are one psychotic old white male vs an alzheimers ridden old white male.

    Trump is going to win easily.

  2. #5842
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    I'm not sure what Joe Biden has done to impress anyone during this election cycle other than continue to be a breathing human being who is not Donald Trump. It's amazing that it may turn out to be enough.

  3. #5843
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    I'm not sure what Joe Biden has done to impress anyone during this election cycle other than continue to be a breathing human being who is not Donald Trump. It's amazing that it may turn out to be enough.
    I recall that election sign I saw in Indian Hill a few weeks ago. It read: 2020 Any functioning adult.
    Xavier always goes to the NCAA tournament...Projecting anything less than that this season feels like folly--Eamonn Brennan, ESPN (Summer Shootaround, 2012)

  4. #5844
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    I'm not sure what Joe Biden has done to impress anyone during this election cycle other than continue to be a breathing human being who is not Donald Trump. It's amazing that it may turn out to be enough.
    Honestly that is all I care about at this point. Although he just spoke and I thought did a great job with what he said and spoke well.

    And to be clear I think Trump is still the favorite unfortunately. I just cant imagine anyone (who isnt fully in his camp already) seeing this past week and thinking it was a good week for Trump.
    "I知 willing to sacrifice everything for this team. I知 going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. I知 going to play harder than I致e ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

  5. #5845
    Supporting Member X-man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    Trump remains the betting favorite to win the November election as of this morning.
    Not according to this source: https://www.casino.org/news/polls-od...tial-election/
    Xavier always goes to the NCAA tournament...Projecting anything less than that this season feels like folly--Eamonn Brennan, ESPN (Summer Shootaround, 2012)

  6. #5846
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z View Post
    I just cant imagine anyone (who isnt fully in his camp already) seeing this past week and thinking it was a good week for Trump.
    On the other hand, what undecided voter is watching what is going on this week and thinking "Let's vote for the side participating in and/or condoning the burning of cities"?

  7. #5847
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-man View Post
    Well, I just logged onto my online betting account, and Trump is the betting line favorite. Even that article made no sense as it had both at +100 with no vig. Mine is Trump -130, Field +100.

  8. #5848
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xville View Post
    I'm not convinced at all that minority voter turnout will suddenly be improved when the choices are one psychotic old white male vs an alzheimers ridden old white male.

    Trump is going to win easily.
    They are rioting in the streets at a level that I don't really recall seeing in my lifetime. Maybe Rodney King? It was certainly worse in LA, but not sure it was worse nationally. I don't think this is just about George Floyd. It's about the overall situation and minorities feeling like they aren't being heard, and I think Trump is a big part of that. All he had to do was somewhat convincingly act like he cares and listen to the black community, but he can't resist. The minority vote may not be enough for Biden, but I think that they will support him. I also think we are going to see a lot of Barack Obama on the campaign trail as well as very likely a minority running mate.

    Quote Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z View Post
    Honestly that is all I care about at this point. Although he just spoke and I thought did a great job with what he said and spoke well.

    And to be clear I think Trump is still the favorite unfortunately. I just cant imagine anyone (who isnt fully in his camp already) seeing this past week and thinking it was a good week for Trump.
    This is my position, 100%. This dude got on a call with a bunch of governors and called them weak for not using military weaponry and tactics to 'dominate' their own citizens. Then he (allegedly) hid in a bunker underneath the White House before emerging to Tear Gas protesters on his way to a photo op. The shit show is just beginning.
    Eat Donuts!

  9. #5849
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    On the other hand, what undecided voter is watching what is going on this week and thinking "Let's vote for the side participating in and/or condoning the burning of cities"?
    I don't think it's as much about that, as it is not voting for a President who seems poorly equipped to handle most difficult situations. This is just another in a long line of examples. I also think that the continuing authoritarian rhetoric should be troubling more people than it is.

    We absolutely shouldn't be condoning the violence and property destruction. If we use that as a reason to de-legitimize the entire protest I think we are missing the point and will only see more of this.
    Last edited by boozehound; 06-02-2020 at 10:27 AM.
    Eat Donuts!

  10. #5850
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    On the other hand, what undecided voter is watching what is going on this week and thinking "Let's vote for the side participating in and/or condoning the burning of cities"?
    Anyone who truly thinks that is likely in Trumps camp already. I think most reasonable people understand Biden doesnt want burning and looting. He said as much today again. The ones burning and looting are extremists on both sides mostly.
    Last edited by D-West & PO-Z; 06-02-2020 at 10:22 AM.
    "I知 willing to sacrifice everything for this team. I知 going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. I知 going to play harder than I致e ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

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