Are We Still Alive for a Bye?

[GoMuskies]

So best upside is 4th and worst downside is 8th. Not bad considering the kind of year it's been.

[MD Muskie]

I really hope that they miss out on the 8th seed because I heading up early in the morning on Thursday but still won't get into NYC until noon. and then i would have to somehow get over to Brooklyn from Time Square. Best case I would see the second half. I am really hoping for any game after the noon tip off.

PS has anyone figured out the odds of what each seed would be? Out of the 5 seeds we can still get, what is the most likely?

[chico]

If GW beats UD, is it possible for them to be left at home? It appears that way.

[GoMuskies]

If GW beats UD, is it possible for them to be left at home? It appears that way.

Yes. Charlotte has to beat St. Joes at home, and the Bonnies and Spiders have to beat Fordham and Duquesne (cannot remember who is playing who). Certainly a possibility.

[XU '11]

I really hope that they miss out on the 8th seed because I heading up early in the morning on Thursday but still won't get into NYC until noon. and then i would have to somehow get over to Brooklyn from Time Square. Best case I would see the second half. I am really hoping for any game after the noon tip off.

PS has anyone figured out the odds of what each seed would be? Out of the 5 seeds we can still get, what is the most likely?

I think...

#4 with a XAV win & TEM loss (25%) {18%}
#5 with a XAV win & TEM win (25%) {12%}
#6 with a XAV loss, MAS loss, & SJU loss (12.5%) {7.9%}
#7 with a XAV loss and a loss by MAS OR SJU (25%) {31.2%}
#8 with a XAV loss, MAS win & SJU win (12.5%) {30.1%}

Numbers in braces use game odds provided by sagarin...

[GoMuskies]

Those would be the odds if each game was a coinflip. Unfortunately, Xavier is probably looking at about a 25% win probability.

VCU is probably something like 70% to beat Temple, UMass is maybe 85% to beat URI, and SJU is probably 50/50 at Charlotte.

With that, I'll say

#4: 17.5%
#5: 7.5%
#6: 6%
#7: 37%
#8: 32%