Gonzaga is Your New #1

[LA Muskie]

I don't think I'm discrediting them. I'm simply not giving them any baseless credit.

They were being projected as a #1 seed without him, and I don't think they were ever outside the top five. I think Irving played in just one game, and I don't think it was officially announced he was back until after the selection show. Even with him they came up way short.

It's a redundant exercise for me. I've stated the reasons I feel Duke is overrated and why I think they have been overrated for quite some time. I realize that most people disagree. That's fine, but I'm not pulling this stuff out of my ass. It's really not a baseless vendetta against Duke per say. It's a vendetta against a team that I feel is overvaluled that happens to be Duke.

Brew,

You most definitely are not pulling stuff out of your ass. Frankly I must confess to being impressed with your knowledge beyond the teams' mere records, especially since it seems to go many seasons back. While I'm not going to ask you to confess to anything, I am going to guess you have placed a wager on college basketball games here and there. If not, you are wasting some serious advantage against the field.

That said, while I understand your contention that Duke is overrated, and while I may agree with it, I wonder whether it is really a "Duke effect." It seems to me that aside from the UCLA teams of Wooden, there are very few top rated teams that are truly worth all of their accolades. Kentucky was a consensus Top 5 pick preseason, and UCLA was nearly so. Neither is a Top 25 team today. Kentucky lost Noel, but frankly they weren't all that great even with him. UCLA doesn't even have a real excuse, unless you count players the coach kicked off the team mid-season (which appears to be a sport itself out here in Westwood these days). In Football, the consensus #1 (USC) didn't even finish in the Top 25 and got crushed in its bowl game.

You may say that's all true, but Duke gets even more of a pass than most. That may be true, but in their defense that is what success buys you. In the last 30 years they have 11 Final Fours (the most of any school -- better than 1 every 3 years), 4 national championships, 4 2nd place finishes, 12 ACC regular season titles, and 13 ACC tournament titles. You will note I quoted only conference (home/away neutral) and tournament (neutral) stats.

[GoMuskies]

I don't take 'brew for a gambler. I think he's more historian than prognosticator.

[xubrew]

If you're Louisville I think you'd rather play Kansas in Kansas City or Michigan in Auburn Hills than get a number one seed and have to go to Dayton. You have to think the worst match-ups go there. Even OSU would probably rather go out west than have to play there.

Kansas City and Auburn Hills are sites for the rounds of 64 and 32. Louisville will almost certainly be in Lexington or Dayton (probably Lexington) for that round.

Ohio State can't go to Indianapolis for the Sweet Sixteen if Indiana is there unless they're seeded 5th or lower, or if the Big Ten manages to get five teams seeded 4th or better (which is possible).

The reason I think the committee will put Louisville in Indianapolis has nothing to do with what I think the fair thing to do is. They are basically given a directive to keep teams as close to home as the bracket rules allow them. The NCAA pays the travel expenses and buses are cheaper, and for whatever reason most athletic directors (not all, but most) have said they'd rather play a tougher opponent close to home than an easier opponent far away. Last, and not least, they do case studies of what teams were sent outside of their geographic region in recent years, and last year Louisville was sent out west.

I don't disagree with your reasoning. I just don't think it's the reasoning the committee will use.

LA, I haven't bet on sports since 2005. I don't consider it a waste of time, though. Everyone has their interests and hobbies. I guess you can just say I'm around it a lot, but feel it's a bad idea to bet.

[xubrew]

Duke is a clear #1 seed. It's like I've been saying all along.

[GoMuskies]

Gonzaga decided to get their heads out of their asses in the second half, I see.

[xubrew]

I think Duke still gets a #1 seed. Whoever the 8v9 winner is will undoubtedly be a lot better than Maryland, though. Unless it's Memphis. In fact, that's who it will probably be.