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  1. #11
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kahns Krazy View Post
    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    Aaaaaand, the 7% crowd wins with the S&P finishing around 1625 yesterday.

    Who is the idiot now?
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  2. #12
    Sophomore blueblob06's Avatar
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    Woohoo! I've put $$$ in burritos over the years, Chipotle to be specific, and it's been great. GOOG has been good too.

    Wish I had put all my eggs in the burrito basket. I'd be rich!

  3. #13
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    S&P over 1,680. Up over 13% year to date. Amazing.
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  4. #14
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    In the midst of the shut down, debt ceiling, sky is falling conversation, the S&P hit a new all time high of 1733 yesterday.

    Meanwhile, short term interest rates continue to hit new record lows. Corporations are continuing to sit on cash despite getting absolutely nothing for it. Stock buybacks have become the new dividend, which does absolutely nothing for improving the velocity of spending, which is what the economy really needs to complete the rebound.

    I still think there will be an adjustment in the next 6-18 months, but history shows that I have no idea what I'm talking about.
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  5. #15
    And add to that, the same dude I follow says one of the most under-reported stories is that the deficit is falling precipitously and may actually be a surplus by 2016. He suggests that the Treasury has been raking it in due to higher employment. I haven't fact checked him on this, but plan on doing so soon. One thing I know for sure at this point, Wall Street is now calling bullshit on DC when it comes to all of the shutdown talk. They just keep moving along their merry way, while the politicos are hoping for a huge market downdraft based on the shutdown threat.
    Pray the Rosary daily

  6. #16
    Junior XU-PA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kahns Krazy View Post
    but history shows that I have no idea what I'm talking about.
    If only your were every stock analyst/broker in the world.

  7. #17
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    S&P at 1,818, nearly 23% ahead of where it was when this thread started almost exactly a year ago.

    My thought is that this is unsustainable. Short term interest rates are starting to turn, ever so slightly. When those rates start to move, I would think a lot of money would be coming out of equities and back into the bond and cash investment environment. I wouldn't think anything would happen quickly, but a flat to slightly down year in the equity markets would not surprise me. Given what has happened historically, it wouldn't surprise me if it means a market correction in the first half of the year followed by steady progress back to current levels by the end of the year.

    I'm not selling anything right now, but I'm not buying either. Building what reserves I can to take advantage of a dip if one comes.
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  8. #18
    I'm with you KK. Though I believe that the reality of QE tapering is already baked into the market, the rise in artificially suppressed interest rates are not. I don't feel that rates will spike as QE is eased, but they will rise providing alternatives to equities. The other wild card for me is employment and inventories. As the jobless rate continues to decrease and spending increases will there be enough inventory to meet the demand? With inventories at current historic lows this aspect will be interesting. I have looked at some pretty sophisticated bond short funds that came out in 2008 and are trading at very low prices to all time highs. But the prospectus for these things is so convoluted that I steered clear. I have some dry powder for a dip and am glad I bought and held an S&P index fund in 2009 and again in 2011.
    Pray the Rosary daily

  9. #19
    Supporting Member X-man's Avatar
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    I teach economics and I am very leery about predicting market moveents. I do agree that the QE taper is likely to be a non-event. But even with the taper, there is so much cash available (over 90% of bank deposits at the Fed, for example, are excess deposits earning only 25 basis points) that when the uncertainty in the business environment begins to disappear (as the economy strengthens, the effects of the ACA become more predictable, and Congress starts to pass more long-term fiscal measures), I think that the market could stay the course rather than retreat in the face of rising interest rates. But I know nothing other than the fact that whenever I refinance my house, rates tend to drop within 3-4 weeks after the re-fi.
    Xavier always goes to the NCAA tournament...Projecting anything less than that this season feels like folly--Eamonn Brennan, ESPN (Summer Shootaround, 2012)

  10. #20
    I'm waiting for the crop report to come out. I have a good feeling about frozen, concentrated orange juice futures.

    Or maybe pork bellies, which are used to make bacon - as in a bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwich.

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