Page 1 of 29 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 282
  1. #1

    Stock Market Predictions

    Both the Dow and S&P closed at 5 year highs today. Last time the market was this high was December 2007. The S&P is about 80 points from it's pre-crash peak.

    Two questions:

    -Long or short on the US equity markets and why either way?
    -What will the S&P be on March 1, 2013? It closed at 1480 today.

    Sequester cuts, debt ceiling, affect of both on retail sales, consumer confidence. Deal or no deal on these issues. On March 1 the US Treasury will be unable to pay all of its bills. What happens then? What do the rating agencies do?

    I have followed the issue very carefully since before the November 2012 elections. I am short on the US equity markets. I think that at some point just before March 1 or shortly afterwards, the S&P will be down 25%-30% from today's value.

    What say you?
    Pray the Rosary daily

  2. #2
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Wichita, KS
    Posts
    25,310
    Not sure, but I'm definitely nervouos about it. We just had bonus season, and I am reluctant to put much of that money into the equity markets right now, particularly when I just had a decent sized chunk go in via my 401(k) deductions. However, I have a trip to Vegas planned in March (conference tournament week; the "pro" way to do March in Vegas as opposed to hanging with the rank amateurs that visit the folllowing week), and I plan to invest a nice chunk of cash in craps, pai gow, blackjack and strippers. Projected IRR is very high.

  3. #3
    Supporting Member chico's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    3,364
    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    (conference tournament week; the "pro" way to do March in Vegas as opposed to hanging with the rank amateurs that visit the folllowing week).
    As someone who goes the following week, I resent that remark. Of course, you're right - in a lot of ways it's like New Year's Eve for the sports bettor, but it's easier to win at poker. But 20 years ago when I first started going it was much, much different. I blame Bill Simmons. And George Bush.

  4. #4
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    9,680
    I'm on the sidelines for the next few months. The end of TAG has corporates looking to put all that cash somewhere. I'd be concerned about all that cash if I were short on equities.
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  5. #5
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    9,680
    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  6. #6
    Supporting Member DC Muskie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Beltway
    Posts
    11,237
    In my world, companies and people are sitting on a ton of money and not spending it...either on hires, programs or especially philanthropic work.

    This could be the new normal. It's frustrating, but I can see why, especially when reading the above.
    Award Winning Poster Since 2015

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Kahns Krazy View Post
    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    Interesting:
    45% in the 1450 to 1500 range, which is where it's been for a while.
    38% to 1550
    11% below1400
    7% over 1600

    So 83% in a 100 point range 1450 to 1550

    I interpret this as a 100 point trading range, which is around 6% either way. Also, it says that the expert thinks there is a 50% higher chance that the bottom can fall out to below 1400 versus going up over 1600.

    This seems to make sense given the info I have been following. The group I follow feels like the sequester cut possibility is lessening because no one has the stomach for another fight. I will be listening to a conference call tomorrow to get more details. That said, I think that your numbers are pretty much on point at the moment.
    Pray the Rosary daily

  8. #8
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    9,680
    It was a survey of around 400 corporates and investment professionals.

    I actually think it's amazing that only 50% more people believe that giving up recent gains is likely versus those who believe that there's a chance that the current gains are simply the warm up to crushing all-time highs.

    I kind of think the 7% are idiots, and I love an optimist.

    Also, those numbers add to 101%. I always think it's dumb when numbers may not sum due to rounding. Round one of them down if they don't sum. You're rounding already. Big whoop.
    Last edited by Kahns Krazy; 02-08-2013 at 08:29 AM.
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  9. #9
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Wichita, KS
    Posts
    25,310
    S&P sits at 1543 a little less than a month out from that survey. The 1600+ people are looking less like idiots now.

    Dow obviously hit its record high today. According to the WSJ, when the Dow hits a high, on average it runs another 28% before the bull market ends. That would be okay.

  10. #10
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    9,680
    I don't think you're seeing a bull market. I think you're seeing the short term impact of economic policies. There is a ton of cash sitting around, and it's being forced into the markets. Dropping federally insured bank accounts for businesses from unlimited back to the FDIC limit is forcing tons of that corporate cash into prime money market funds that are ultimately investing in the markets. If interest rates ever turn back around, that money will flow out quickly.

    I've never felt the need to be diversified more than I do now. I'm not sure which leg of this thing is going to break, but I think something will in the next 12-24 months.

    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •