Both the Dow and S&P closed at 5 year highs today. Last time the market was this high was December 2007. The S&P is about 80 points from it's pre-crash peak.
Two questions:
-Long or short on the US equity markets and why either way?
-What will the S&P be on March 1, 2013? It closed at 1480 today.
Sequester cuts, debt ceiling, affect of both on retail sales, consumer confidence. Deal or no deal on these issues. On March 1 the US Treasury will be unable to pay all of its bills. What happens then? What do the rating agencies do?
I have followed the issue very carefully since before the November 2012 elections. I am short on the US equity markets. I think that at some point just before March 1 or shortly afterwards, the S&P will be down 25%-30% from today's value.
What say you?
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Thread: Stock Market Predictions
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01-18-2013, 07:37 PM #1
Stock Market Predictions
Pray the Rosary daily
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01-18-2013, 07:54 PM #2
Not sure, but I'm definitely nervouos about it. We just had bonus season, and I am reluctant to put much of that money into the equity markets right now, particularly when I just had a decent sized chunk go in via my 401(k) deductions. However, I have a trip to Vegas planned in March (conference tournament week; the "pro" way to do March in Vegas as opposed to hanging with the rank amateurs that visit the folllowing week), and I plan to invest a nice chunk of cash in craps, pai gow, blackjack and strippers. Projected IRR is very high.
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01-18-2013, 08:14 PM #3
As someone who goes the following week, I resent that remark. Of course, you're right - in a lot of ways it's like New Year's Eve for the sports bettor, but it's easier to win at poker. But 20 years ago when I first started going it was much, much different. I blame Bill Simmons. And George Bush.
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01-19-2013, 07:54 AM #4
I'm on the sidelines for the next few months. The end of TAG has corporates looking to put all that cash somewhere. I'd be concerned about all that cash if I were short on equities.
"Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
-Matt McCormick
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02-07-2013, 02:48 PM #5
I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:
A - 1600 or Higher 7%
B - 1550 38%
C - 1450 26%
D - 1400 or lower 11%
E - 1500 (more of same) 19%"Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
-Matt McCormick
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02-07-2013, 03:43 PM #6
In my world, companies and people are sitting on a ton of money and not spending it...either on hires, programs or especially philanthropic work.
This could be the new normal. It's frustrating, but I can see why, especially when reading the above.Award Winning Poster Since 2015
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02-07-2013, 06:19 PM #7
Interesting:
45% in the 1450 to 1500 range, which is where it's been for a while.
38% to 1550
11% below1400
7% over 1600
So 83% in a 100 point range 1450 to 1550
I interpret this as a 100 point trading range, which is around 6% either way. Also, it says that the expert thinks there is a 50% higher chance that the bottom can fall out to below 1400 versus going up over 1600.
This seems to make sense given the info I have been following. The group I follow feels like the sequester cut possibility is lessening because no one has the stomach for another fight. I will be listening to a conference call tomorrow to get more details. That said, I think that your numbers are pretty much on point at the moment.Pray the Rosary daily
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05-08-2013, 09:36 AM #8
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08-23-2015, 11:10 PM #9
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08-24-2015, 09:39 AM #10
Stock Market Predictions
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