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  1. #1

    Stock Market Predictions

    Both the Dow and S&P closed at 5 year highs today. Last time the market was this high was December 2007. The S&P is about 80 points from it's pre-crash peak.

    Two questions:

    -Long or short on the US equity markets and why either way?
    -What will the S&P be on March 1, 2013? It closed at 1480 today.

    Sequester cuts, debt ceiling, affect of both on retail sales, consumer confidence. Deal or no deal on these issues. On March 1 the US Treasury will be unable to pay all of its bills. What happens then? What do the rating agencies do?

    I have followed the issue very carefully since before the November 2012 elections. I am short on the US equity markets. I think that at some point just before March 1 or shortly afterwards, the S&P will be down 25%-30% from today's value.

    What say you?
    Pray the Rosary daily

  2. #2
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    Not sure, but I'm definitely nervouos about it. We just had bonus season, and I am reluctant to put much of that money into the equity markets right now, particularly when I just had a decent sized chunk go in via my 401(k) deductions. However, I have a trip to Vegas planned in March (conference tournament week; the "pro" way to do March in Vegas as opposed to hanging with the rank amateurs that visit the folllowing week), and I plan to invest a nice chunk of cash in craps, pai gow, blackjack and strippers. Projected IRR is very high.

  3. #3
    Supporting Member chico's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    (conference tournament week; the "pro" way to do March in Vegas as opposed to hanging with the rank amateurs that visit the folllowing week).
    As someone who goes the following week, I resent that remark. Of course, you're right - in a lot of ways it's like New Year's Eve for the sports bettor, but it's easier to win at poker. But 20 years ago when I first started going it was much, much different. I blame Bill Simmons. And George Bush.

  4. #4
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    I'm on the sidelines for the next few months. The end of TAG has corporates looking to put all that cash somewhere. I'd be concerned about all that cash if I were short on equities.
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  5. #5
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  6. #6
    Supporting Member DC Muskie's Avatar
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    In my world, companies and people are sitting on a ton of money and not spending it...either on hires, programs or especially philanthropic work.

    This could be the new normal. It's frustrating, but I can see why, especially when reading the above.
    Award Winning Poster Since 2015

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Kahns Krazy View Post
    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    Interesting:
    45% in the 1450 to 1500 range, which is where it's been for a while.
    38% to 1550
    11% below1400
    7% over 1600

    So 83% in a 100 point range 1450 to 1550

    I interpret this as a 100 point trading range, which is around 6% either way. Also, it says that the expert thinks there is a 50% higher chance that the bottom can fall out to below 1400 versus going up over 1600.

    This seems to make sense given the info I have been following. The group I follow feels like the sequester cut possibility is lessening because no one has the stomach for another fight. I will be listening to a conference call tomorrow to get more details. That said, I think that your numbers are pretty much on point at the moment.
    Pray the Rosary daily

  8. #8
    All-Conference Kahns Krazy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kahns Krazy View Post
    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    Aaaaaand, the 7% crowd wins with the S&P finishing around 1625 yesterday.

    Who is the idiot now?
    "Give a toast to my brother, hug your family, and do everything possible to live the life you dream of. God Bless."
    -Matt McCormick

  9. #9
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kahns Krazy View Post
    I just saw these results of a survey about the S&P 3 months from today:

    A - 1600 or Higher 7%
    B - 1550 38%
    C - 1450 26%
    D - 1400 or lower 11%
    E - 1500 (more of same) 19%
    This is from 2/7/13. Keep this in mind as people lose their minds on Monday. The S&P will open Monday at 1970.89 (and immediately go sharply lower).

  10. #10
    All-Conference XUFan09's Avatar
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    Stock Market Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    This is from 2/7/13. Keep this in mind as people lose their minds on Monday. The S&P will open Monday at 1970.89 (and immediately go sharply lower).
    I don't really follow the stock market, so I wanted to clarify for myself. Are you saying that the market has vastly over-performed in recent months, based off predictions, and is now correcting itself to something more reasonable/stable?

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