Conference carousel to start spinning again?

[UCGRAD4X]

Yeah, This is not over by a long shot and may take a couple of years to settle out.

[xudash]

Yeah, This is not over by a long shot and may take a couple of years to settle out.

PART ONE

It will be rather fascinating to watch it play out from here.

It really feels like the train is going to make one or two more material stops and that will be it, with any "stop" being defined as "is your program worth about $100 million in media rights per year or not?" If that isn't the precise question, then the question would probably still be about "would your program, if added to one of two behemoth conferences, create enough critical value and content, and would it enable the right structure for those conferences to get to those types of media payouts while otherwise putting up a wall around what it means to be big in big time college football?"

Think about what has transpired up till now from when the P6 came together and the BCS ruled the day. Increased media rights opportunities eventually came through aggregation, and so the Big East with football was put on the sacrificial altar so that the ACC could expand. Poof. We end up with the P5, the AAC and everyone else. Along the way comes the playoff format to replace the BCS. The SEC, having already pulled in A&M and MIZZOU, finally see an opening to take TEXAS and OKLAHOMA. Now the B1G responds, and in a material way with respect to "who cares about geography" by pulling in USC and UCLA, causing a game, set match feel to all this. Seriously, the train - consolidation in football at the highest level – obviously is running out of viable stops.

There are presently approximately 125 FBS schools. It had been the P5 and the so-called Group of 5. It's going to become the P2, 2 diminished wannabes and everyone else who stick around, assuming there is something for which to stick around - assuming the so called FBS is still a thing.

[xudash]

PART TWO

The Big East's potential expansion candidate opportunities will reside in the 2 diminished wannabes category. Which programs might become candidates for the Big East? That isn't too hard to figure out on paper. Ask a few simple questions:

1. Are you a current so called P5 member?
2. Are you a private school?
3. Is your enrollment south of 20k students?
4. Is your basketball program important to you at all?

The AD of Wake Forest and the AD of Syracuse, to name just 2, would answer "yes" to those questions.

So, what? They may be quietly pondering the predicament now, but until things break with respect to the ACC and its existing media agreement, which throws off about $34 million per school, they know they have a stay of execution.

Now think about that for a moment, especially if you are Florida State, Clemson, UNC or ???. $34 million per year per school for another decade while your competition is raking in about $100 million on the same basis. That is just brutal - GOR or no GOR.
IF the legion of attorneys and certain school presidents and their athletic directors find a way to take a hammer to the existing ACC media arrangement sooner than later, then things will get interesting.

If you are Wake or Syracuse, for example, and your athletic department goes from $34 million per year in media rights payouts to, say $15 million per year, you probably have a tough decision to make:

- Stay in an all sports conference and pretend your relevant, assuming you find a way to do that with an approximate $20 million gap in your existing funding.

- Consider what UCONN did: move to the Big East, where the annual media payout may recompute to $10 million per year per program, and run your football program as an independent, monetizing its football content in whatever manner possible to maybe make $5 million or more from it, thereby ending up in a better basketball situation (i.e. let's say most likely Duke is a pivot point in all this, but you have to believe that Chapel Hill and UVA will be gone to the B1G as soon as things break away; ACC basketball will take a material hit in some manner).

- A $20 million gap is a freaking $20 million gap: maybe you drop down. You’re a private school - you don't have gobs of students to suck student fees from for a football program subsidy. Chances are pretty good that certain people on campus aren't going to want endowment related funds to cover the shortfall. That is why small and private isn't a good place to be for all this right now.

At the end of the day, there were no real P6 and P5; there were no 65 teams that played on an equal footing. Alabama and the SEC Commissioner value Vandy for what it brings in academic image to the SEC. Ohio State and Michigan don't truly see Rutgers and Indiana as peers in all this.

So, we move forward, morphing unabashedly into semi-pro football that has collegiate branding by virtue of tethers to these huge schools while the notion of student-athlete completely loses its veneer. Add in the N I L and consider the type of school that can best play in that space, regardless of what it becomes.

Things must still break the right way, but I see all this as potentially being very beneficial to the Big East and Xavier, particularly if the ACC ends up shattered for purposes of football. I agree that it will still take some time to settle out. But any expansion that comes along for the Big East down the road will most likely come from better brands and certainly not from the A10.

All this makes me chuckle when it comes to VD and that delusional fan bases' belief that they should be in the Big East. Then again, those poor bastards probably still believe that our endowment is under $200 million. Fat, drunk, stupid AND DELUSIONAL is no way to go through life.

At any rate, we sit back and watch it develop, knowing that the Big East is in a strong position and therefore well poised to be patient. And we believe that, Xavier with Sean at the helm, will be back, and beyond.

[paulxu]

I think Duke should join the Big East.

[xudash]

I think Duke should join the Big East.

I couldn’t agree more, Paul.

They’re right there in jeopardy with Wake, Syracuse, and BC.

https://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2...clemson-to-sec

[XUBison]

I think Duke should join the Big East.

This is a terrific post. Really, well done.

[paulxu]

Actually I'd hate to lose the round robin. But if you're going to trash it, make it mean something.

[bjf123]

Actually I'd hate to lose the round robin. But if you're going to trash it, make it mean something.

What he said!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[xudash]

I love the round robin. I love the way that the Big East is presently configured.

It may be that basketball is different enough from football to where the size of a conference really doesn’t matter.

What will drive expansion, if it occurs at all, is what happens with schools that become available and how attractive they are with respect to media rights increases.

Were Duke to become available in basketball as a result of what happens in football, and if the BE payout per school were to adjust the way I think it could with them included, then it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility that they could join us.

When it is all said and done, I either want to see us stick to the existing 11 teams, especially if the current Big East contract increases, or only expand if we expand up; if we do not expand by pulling in mid majors.

[sirthought]

How many football schools would the Big East need to add to make it so those schools wouldn't want to be completely independent, like UCONN?

Add Duke, Virginia, WVa, Wake, Pitt, Syracuse. Does seven football schools make it work or break it once again?