2011 NHL Playoffs

[XULucho27]

Here we go. The match-ups are finally set. Here they are with my pick in bold and the amount of games it will take to win next to the match-up.

East:
(1) Crapitals - (8) NY Rangers *6
(2) Flyers - (7) Sabres *6
(3) Bruins - (6) Canadiens *6
(4) Penguins - (5) Lightning *7

I'm very worried about the Pens. They have the D, penalty killing, and occasionally the goaltending to make a deep run, but the power play is atrocious and you need PP scoring to advance in the playoffs. They also have a tough draw as Tampa Bay loves to score in bunches. If Sid was full strength (or even playing) then I wouldn't be worried, but no Sid and no Geno means the D and goaltending will really have to be top notch if they're to advance.
I like Philly or Washington out of the East. I don't think any of the East teams can really match the depth and physicality of the Flyers, or the offensive power and balance of the Capitals. The Rangers may be a tough out for Washington but in the end I think they get it done and Washington (to PMI's delight) finally comes out of the East.

West:

(1) Canucks - (8) Blackhawks *6
(2) Sharks - (7) Kings *7
(3) Red Wings - (6) Coyotes *5
(4) Ducks - (5) Predators *7

In the West the sexy pick is the Canucks, and with good reason. They're 1st in Goals per Game (3.1), 1st in Goals Against (2.2), 1st in Power Play percentage (24.4%) and 3rd in the Penalty Kill percentage (85.6%). They won the President's Cup and they've been pretty much in the driver's seat for the last 2 months. They are playing some excellent hockey.
On the other hand, you just can't count out Detroit... ever. Zetterberg is a bit hurt right now, but if he heals and him, Datsyuk, and Holmstrom play like they usually do, then everybody better watch out. However, I still like Vancouver out of the West, they are deep and they are talented and they do everything right (but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see the Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals.... again).

So I know I left some wiggle room but the Stanley Cup Finals, IMO, will end up being some combination of:

Flyers v. Red Wings
Flyers v. Canucks
Capitals v. Red Wings
Capitals v. Canucks

I really don't see any teams emerging from the East other than Philly or Washington and while the West maybe be prone to a few more surprises I think the two best teams are far and away the Canucks and Wings. Either way, I have NHL Network and Versus ready for this month. I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR! GO PENS!

[PMI]

I'm with you mostly, although I think Boston can definitely be a wild card in the East. Tim Thomas has been his old self again this year and they lead the East in scoring margin by a pretty good amount. I think they're a tough series for anyone. Philly is doing the opposite of what they did last year, stumbling into the playoffs. They definitely have the depth to get it done, but I worry about the goaltending, just like I do with the Caps. Once we get some of our defensemen back we will be as deep as anyone else in the league, but my confidence in Neurverth (likely Game 1 starter) and Varlamov, who I'm convinced isn't 100%, is not as high. I do believe this is the year the Caps finally get out of the East though. Semin and Green have had horrible postseasons the past two years and I just can't see them both being so quiet again. I wish Carolina could've snuck into the 8 spot so we could've avoided King Henrik, but I still think we will find ways to advance. As for the Pens/Bolts, that is a real head scratcher. Tampa has sucked for a month or more now, with Roloson being very soft in net. I think they're a year away from really contending, but the Pens' offense is no doubt a big question mark without their stars. Could a guy like Jordan Staal step up and be a big time scorer? I doubt it, but we'll see. I do bet the Pens wish they would've drafted Nick Backstrom or Jonathon Toews instead of Staal right now...

The West will be wild. I also think Detroit has a good chance but they face a stone wall in round one so they will need to get off on the right foot. The Canucks will fail to get it done in my opinion. Winning and scoring have been so easy for them all season, kind of like a smaller scale version of what the Caps were last year on offense, albeit with a slightly better defense than last year's Caps. Playing the defending champs in round one, even if they are a new look from last year, will not be easy. I love the Anaheim/Nashville matchup, and think whoever escapes that bloodbath could make a big run. I'm leaning toward Nashville a little. Anaheim may have the best first line in the league, but I believe the Preds have the kind of goalie that could carry his team a long way. The Sharks will choke per usual.

All in all, can't wait! I'll be in the Verizon Center Wednesday ready to go! I'll post my series predictions here shortly.

[XULucho27]

I agree that Philly is stumbling into the Playoffs, but they still scare the hell out of me. They're second in the East in Goals Per Game and sit at a respectable 7th in Goals Against per Game at 2.63. They remind me of the Habs last year in that when they can't score they can bang and survive the other team's aggressive forecheck and then attack when the other team screw's up or overcommits to the offensive zone. However, they are different from the Habs in that they can score... a lot. They led the East in Goals this year. You know I HATE Philly, but I think they have the pieces in place to get out of the East again.

As for Vancouver I'm surprised you think they'll flame out. I mean they have been, as you said, dominant on offense, a la Caps last year. But they're Defense is MUCH better than what you guys had. They lead not only the West but the entire NHL in Goals Against per game and scoring margin. But we've both seen Luongo just not even show up for playoff series. Vancouver will depend on which Luongo shows up.

[SixFig]

I am very much a casual fan of hockey (only watch the big games/playoffs), so I appreciate the analysis here . Keep it coming.

I think it will be a great playoffs, and hopefully help hockey regain more fans, even if they are just casual ones like me.

[Tardy Turtle]

It is time. I am excited.

[MD Muskie]

Personally I am much happier that the Sabres did not get the eighth seed. That team is playing in a whole other gear right now and Miller is the goalie that scares me the most when it comes to playoffs right now. I think he is poised for an Olympic type run. If i am the Flyers, the sabres would be the last team i would want to play.

Had the Rangers not lost Callahan to that broken ankle, I would be more terrified of them, but with his injury i think they have lost of a lot balance right now. I also think that the Capitals are poised and ready to learn from their mistakes last year. Having Arnott on this team has made a huge difference to their play.

The Bruins-Canadiens should be a great classic Original Six series but I think the Bruins are too much for them right now. The Habs just don't have the scoring right now and I don't think they can make the run they made last year.

The Pens-Bolts Series is a toss up, if Crosby doesn't come back. If he does then I think the Pens win and the playoffs are completely different. However he is one more hit from being done for the season and I think players will be targeting him.

Now for the west:

The last team the Canucks wanted to see were the Blackhawks. They went from possible 4 or 5 game series to a good ole slobberknocker. I think this one could do deep, but the Nucks should prevail.

I think the Sharks lucked out getting the Kings. Had this been a healthy Kings team, we could be talking about a sleeper pick, but losing Kopitar really hurts. I think the kings are running on fumes now and the Sharks should win easily.

Its the Red Wings, their experience should be enough to beat the the Yotes. However I think Bryzgalov should make this a compelling series with his play in net for the Yotes. I would love to see Shane Doan win a Cup but its not going to happen with the soon to be moving team.

Now this last series should be fun. A very hot Ducks team against red hot Pekka Rinne. I think the Ducks prevail because the Predators just don't have the scoring to win a series. Its a shame that the Predators have not advanced past the first round, or that it won't happen this year, because they have a good fan base and I would love to see some more Carrie Underwood on tv.

[XULucho27]

I think the Sharks lucked out getting the Kings. Had this been a healthy Kings team, we could be talking about a sleeper pick, but losing Kopitar really hurts. I think the kings are running on fumes now and the Sharks should win easily.

I agree to a certain extent. But for some reason I just can't bring myself to pick the Sharks in any series. I know they have kind of gotten over that underachieving tag in the playoffs but I'm just always ready for them to sh*t the bed.

I completely forgot about Miller that does change my thoughts somewhat about the series since goaltending can take you so far in the playoffs (Habs last year). If he shows up then yes I could see the Sabers advance but I'll still stick to my guns and pick Philly (even though I HATE them).

[Muskie]

I'm hoping the Blackhawks can somehow pull this one back together. But it is not looking good after last night.

[PMI]

I agree that Philly is stumbling into the Playoffs, but they still scare the hell out of me. They're second in the East in Goals Per Game and sit at a respectable 7th in Goals Against per Game at 2.63. They remind me of the Habs last year in that when they can't score they can bang and survive the other team's aggressive forecheck and then attack when the other team screw's up or overcommits to the offensive zone. However, they are different from the Habs in that they can score... a lot. They led the East in Goals this year. You know I HATE Philly, but I think they have the pieces in place to get out of the East again.

As for Vancouver I'm surprised you think they'll flame out. I mean they have been, as you said, dominant on offense, a la Caps last year. But they're Defense is MUCH better than what you guys had. They lead not only the West but the entire NHL in Goals Against per game and scoring margin. But we've both seen Luongo just not even show up for playoff series. Vancouver will depend on which Luongo shows up.

No doubt Philly is stacked and has had a great year. Not only that, they've made mini-deep runs the last few years. But I do think that their goalie situation is potentially a shaky one, as it has been at times. I think even for the best teams it is tough to just turn that switch on after the month they've had. They will be physical and can play multiple styles, but if they run into a 100% Ryan Miller the first round may take a lot out of them. We shall see. I'll certainly be rooting against them.

As for Vancouver, Luongo is a big question mark for me. If Chicago can find a way to stay out of the box and keep their first two lines in check, they will be a very tough matchup for Vancouver. I also think Vancouver is carrying a TON of pressure, the likes of which they've never seen. That is obviously a big hockey town and they expect the Cup this year, and now their reward for winning the President's Trophy is a date with the defending champs, who are a much different team, but still have a lot of the key pieces from last year's team. I just think it's a tough spot for them and even if they do win, they may have to play Detroit second. That's a lot to deal with when the pressure to win is unprecedented, and they've lost to the Hawks in the second round each of the past two years. People talk about San Jose and Washington not living up to their potential in the postseason in recent years, and rightfully so, but I think the Canucks have to be next on that list over the past few seasons.

Also, I agree with MD that the Arnott addition is enormous for the Caps. We needed another veteran center, and he's a guy who's scored a Stanley Cup-winning goal and has had tons of playoff experience. I could see him coming up huge for us this year. The MAIN reason we lost early last year is because the power play couldn't produce against a physical Habs team. Arnott has already made a big difference on that unit and has helped taken the pressure off all our younger stars. I'm excited for him.

[whiteyxu]

I don't watch enough hockey to know what I am talking about, but I say the Kings have it made. God is clearly on their side after that freaky "Angels in the Outfield"-esque shot earlier this season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQEKUcSEbjw

(No, I am not being serious here, but it's just too weird not to mention it...)