When will College Sports start up again

Heard of one college that is switching back to Quarters. They have told their students that the first quarter will be online. Second quarter will be determined at a later date. This obviously means that they will not be having fall sports though.

It all depends on how this limited “reopening” of the economy goes. If we don’t see a big jump in positive cases and deaths when people start back doing things like going to the gym, shopping, traveling, eating a restaurants, then we will likely have college football start back up in late September/ early October and play a more limited schedule. BUT, if all H**L breaks loose, then I can see them cancelling in-person school and sporting events until a vaccine is created and widely distributed...make that 1-2 years.

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Originally Posted by XUGRAD80

It all depends on how this limited “reopening” of the economy goes. If we don’t see a big jump in positive cases and deaths when people start back doing things like going to the gym, shopping, traveling, eating a restaurants, then we will likely have college football start back up in late September/ early October and play a more limited schedule. BUT, if all H**L breaks loose, then I can see them cancelling in-person school and sporting events until a vaccine is created and widely distributed...make that 1-2 years.

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Wait until they require testing every other day! There's your spike in positive cases and it will never end... Until there's a vaccine!
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayy, we got tests!!!

Not until we achieve 1 of the following:
- Medically proven vaccine
- Medically proven treatment
- Herd immunity with medically proven zero reinfection rate

We’re not particularly close to any of these

Here is my completely random and outlandish prediction....

By the fall, we’ll start seeing statistics that will show that 18-22 year olds have the same probability of dying from Covid as they do dying from the team bus crashing on the way to the game. Games will play in empty gyms with remote announcers. NCAA will allow staffs with older assistants to watch from home and communicate remotely during the games. This will cause initial controversy but will then become the norm as teams scramble to find older retired coaches to watch from home, break down tape and relay recommendations in real time. Xavier will then hire Pete Gillen as an assistant coach.

This is just my own speculation, but I don't think college sports will be played at all this Fall. I don't know if they'll try and move football, volleyball, soccer, etc to the Spring. It's feasible because other than football (and I guess even sort of football) they all have non-championship seasons in the spring. I don't know if they'll just say 'Forget it. We'll start back up next year.' But, I do not think there will be any college sports this fall.

HOPEFULLY winter sports will be able to start up. But I wouldn't even bank on that just yet.

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Originally Posted by xubrew

This is just my own speculation, but I don't think college sports will be played at all this Fall. I don't know if they'll try and move football, volleyball, soccer, etc to the Spring. It's feasible because other than football (and I guess even sort of football) they all have non-championship seasons in the spring. I don't know if they'll just say 'Forget it. We'll start back up next year.' But, I do not think there will be any college sports this fall.

HOPEFULLY winter sports will be able to start up. But I wouldn't even bank on that just yet.

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That would be a disaster. They will find a way to play it. It might be limited fans spread out, but they will play. No reason not to. The kids are of no risk. And its not like the athletes are hanging out with the at risk population. Where my son plays they expect to be back in June and the college president announced that classes will resume in the fall on campus. Of course things can change. Iowa announced yesterday that practices will resume June 1st. Too much push will come if they try to cancel it. The amount of money lost would be devastating. At some point you can't keep holding the country hostage. I mean if we are waiting for a vaccine then you would have to cancel two years worth of sports.

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Originally Posted by xavierj

That would be a disaster. They will find a way to play it. It might be limited fans spread out, but they will play. No reason not to. The kids are of no risk. And its not like the athletes are hanging out with the at risk population. Where my son plays they expect to be back in June and the college president announced that classes will resume in the fall on campus. Of course things can change. Iowa announced yesterday that practices will resume June 1st. Too much push will come if they try to cancel it. The amount of money lost would be devastating. At some point you can't keep holding the country hostage. I mean if we are waiting for a vaccine then you would have to cancel two years worth of sports.

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Two years? They have already approved Remdesivir for treatment (for emergency use only at this point). Supposedly it reduces recovery time by 31% according to early testing.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...use-remdesivir

And AstraZeneca is so confident the Oxford University vaccine will be successful (it’s not new, it’s an adaptation of an existing vaccine as I understand it) that they are beginning production even before trials are completed.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-ce...9-vaccine.html

Don’t get me wrong, I’m NOT saying we have this thing beaten, but the rapid progress is pretty damn impressive to me. Credible hope for both a treatment and a vaccine much faster than original estimates. I’m not trying to play a doctor on the internet, but I find this encouraging. What can be done when the pressure is on is on! Fingers crossed.

Without a working vaccine, I don’t think there will be any fans for pro sports this year. I’ll also be very surprised if there are fall or winter college sports played at all. If there aren’t students on campus, can you really have sports teams on campus? While unlikely, should a student athlete get sick and die at a school where they only let the athletes back on campus, open the checkbook, because you’re paying a big assed settlement.

So far, everyone is taking the overly cautious route. Whether it’s actually necessary is a completely different issue.


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Georgia announced they will have students back on campus this summer and expect to start school as planned in the fall with students on campus. Unless there is a spike in hospitalizations and deaths in the next month, schools will be back and sports will be played in the fall. Whether or not their are fans is another story.

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Originally Posted by JEHARDI

Georgia announced they will have students back on campus this summer and expect to start school as planned in the fall with students on campus. Unless there is a spike in hospitalizations and deaths in the next month, schools will be back and sports will be played in the fall. Whether or not their are fans is another story.

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I REALLY hope you're right. But....

All ten FBS conference commissioners have basically said that they won't play any fall sports unless all the students are back. They've said that publicly both collectively and as individuals. Bob Bolwsby said the Big 12 wouldn't play unless all students were back. Hell, all ten of them told the Vice President of the United States that.

Playing in empty stadiums is far less likely in college than it is in the pros. A lot of presidents don't want to do it. Gene Smith at Ohio State has indicated that he doesn't want to do it, and I believe that he is far from alone on that. The thing is that playing in empty stadiums doesn't really do anything to protect the players. Unless fans rush the field, the players don't really come into contact with them.

But, I think the biggest thing is this. Schools aren't going to want to spend money on football if they aren't even sure if there is going to be football. If they are able to determine that football will go on uninterrupted, then great! Game on! But if they aren't sure, and they run the risk of losing revenue from not playing, then they aren't going to want to devote any revenue or resources to it and run the risk of it being cancelled anyway. All campuses are going to be stretched very thin as it is, and they may look for ways to suspend athletics in the fall and try and save money by furloughing coaches and staff. Simply put, if presented with the question of whether or not to spend tens of millions of dollars on something that may not even happen, or coming up with a way to not have to do that, then they may look to go the route of Option B. I know coaches have contracts, but apparently if football is suspended then a lot of schools will be able to get around having to pay them.

On the ESPN ticker this weekend, it reported that NFL sources are saying the 2020 NFL season will start as planned in September with the Super Bowl on 2/7/21 in Tampa. Didn't say anything about fans in the stands, but that they are planning to play in Fall 2020 in September. That is some form of hope to me.

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Originally Posted by xubrew

I REALLY hope you're right. But....

All ten FBS conference commissioners have basically said that they won't play any fall sports unless all the students are back. They've said that publicly both collectively and as individuals. Bob Bolwsby said the Big 12 wouldn't play unless all students were back. Hell, all ten of them told the Vice President of the United States that.

Playing in empty stadiums is far less likely in college than it is in the pros. A lot of presidents don't want to do it. Gene Smith at Ohio State has indicated that he doesn't want to do it, and I believe that he is far from alone on that. The thing is that playing in empty stadiums doesn't really do anything to protect the players. Unless fans rush the field, the players don't really come into contact with them.

But, I think the biggest thing is this. Schools aren't going to want to spend money on football if they aren't even sure if there is going to be football. If they are able to determine that football will go on uninterrupted, then great! Game on! But if they aren't sure, and they run the risk of losing revenue from not playing, then they aren't going to want to devote any revenue or resources to it and run the risk of it being cancelled anyway. All campuses are going to be stretched very thin as it is, and they may look for ways to suspend athletics in the fall and try and save money by furloughing coaches and staff. Simply put, if presented with the question of whether or not to spend tens of millions of dollars on something that may not even happen, or coming up with a way to not have to do that, then they may look to go the route of Option B. I know coaches have contracts, but apparently if football is suspended then a lot of schools will be able to get around having to pay them.

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Significant TV $ at stake. They will play without fans if they have to. The money will drive a fall return.

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Originally Posted by JEHARDI

Significant TV $ at stake. They will play without fans if they have to. The money will drive a fall return.

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There was significant TV money at stake for the NCAA Tournament, and there are more schools that rely on that than what rely on football money. Plus, if they say they're to play and then end up not being able to because some of the states won't allow it, then they're out both the TV money and the money for operations.

You also have to look not so much at what you think makes sense, but rather at what the people who will ultimately end up making the decision are saying. That's the presidents and the commissioners. I can't find one example of either a president or a commissioner saying that they are considering playing without fans.

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Originally Posted by xubrew

There was significant TV money at stake for the NCAA Tournament, and there are more schools that rely on that than what rely on football money. Plus, if they say they're to play and then end up not being able to because some of the states won't allow it, then they're out both the TV money and the money for operations.

You also have to look not so much at what you think makes sense, but rather at what the people who will ultimately end up making the decision are saying. That's the presidents and the commissioners. I can't find one example of either a president or a commissioner saying that they are considering playing without fans.

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Football is the cash cow. I saw something that said that teams that play college football generate more football revenue Combined than all other sports the offer, including basketball. Alabama generates around $110 million from football, and $14 million from basketball. Football cancelling would have a huge impact on all college sports. Much greater than cancelling the basketball tourney.

If you believe that the SEC is going to cancel football this season, then I have some swampland in Florida to sell to you.

I'm surprised they have cancelled pro golf.
Have to believe the majority of the money made comes from TV ads, rather than gate receipts.
Thought they could have reduced purses, and played without spectators.

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Originally Posted by paulxu

I'm surprised they have cancelled pro golf.
Have to believe the majority of the money made comes from TV ads, rather than gate receipts.
Thought they could have reduced purses, and played without spectators.

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Good point from a logistics/staging point of view.

It probably was locked up for the potential for bad optics.

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Originally Posted by xudash

Good point from a logistics/staging point of view.

It probably was locked up for the potential for bad optics.

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That make sense. Also means they should be the first back.

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Originally Posted by xavierj

Football is the cash cow. I saw something that said that teams that play college football generate more football revenue Combined than all other sports the offer, including basketball. Alabama generates around $110 million from football, and $14 million from basketball. Football cancelling would have a huge impact on all college sports. Much greater than cancelling the basketball tourney.

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There are 353 div1 schools. 97 of those are like Xavier and don't even play football, and of the 256 that do, about 180-190 of them make more money off of basketball than they do off of football. Outside of the FBS, and even in some cases within the FBS, football is not the big moneymaker. They rely much more on the basketball tournament revenue than the football revenue.

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Originally Posted by xudash

If you believe that the SEC is going to cancel football this season, then I have some swampland in Florida to sell to you.

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Okay, just think about what you just said and see if you can figure out why it makes no sense. I've been laughing at it since I read it. Saying you have beachfront property in Nebraska is an obvious scam because it offers something that people would want, but that clearly does not exist. Saying you have swamp land in Florida is offering something that no one wants, but that in actuality exists in abundance and that really isn't that hard to acquire.

I have no doubt that the SEC wants to play and will make every effort to play. All ten FBS commissioners talk several times a week. They all want to try to go ahead with the season, which is good. But, it's also true that they've discussed postponing and even cancelling. None of them have ruled it out as a possibility. And, it ultimately may not even be up to them. If there is another spike after the states start to open up again and shelter in place orders are renewed, then it's out of their hands.

I think by July 1st, one way or another, we will have a much better idea of what things will look like. We can look at places like Sweden and see where they are. We can look at states that have opened back up and see where they are. We can see if there is an adequate amount of testing by then or not. But, I seriously doubt that university presidents will want to devout money and resources toward athletic operations unless they are certain that the games can actually be played. It's bad being out TV and attendance revenue. It's worse being out the operational revenue on top of that, especially when they're having to make cuts, furloughs, and layoffs right now across campus as it is. If no cuts are made to athletics, and the games don't happen, good luck on maintaining any support from the faculty and staff if you're a university president.

The NCAA is circulating a document titled the "Core Principles of Resocialization of Collegiate Sport" it documents what needs to happen to start sports back up. Fans are not part of the requirement and the requirements on whole are very achievable given where most states are now headed.

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Originally Posted by JEHARDI

Fans are not part of the requirement .

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Yikes

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Originally Posted by xubrew

There are 353 div1 schools. 97 of those are like Xavier and don't even play football, and of the 256 that do, about 180-190 of them make more money off of basketball than they do off of football. Outside of the FBS, and even in some cases within the FBS, football is not the big moneymaker. They rely much more on the basketball tournament revenue than the football revenue.



Okay, just think about what you just said and see if you can figure out why it makes no sense. I've been laughing at it since I read it. Saying you have beachfront property in Nebraska is an obvious scam because it offers something that people would want, but that clearly does not exist. Saying you have swamp land in Florida is offering something that no one wants, but that in actuality exists in abundance and that really isn't that hard to acquire.

I have no doubt that the SEC wants to play and will make every effort to play. All ten FBS commissioners talk several times a week. They all want to try to go ahead with the season, which is good. But, it's also true that they've discussed postponing and even cancelling. None of them have ruled it out as a possibility. And, it ultimately may not even be up to them. If there is another spike after the states start to open up again and shelter in place orders are renewed, then it's out of their hands.

I think by July 1st, one way or another, we will have a much better idea of what things will look like. We can look at places like Sweden and see where they are. We can look at states that have opened back up and see where they are. We can see if there is an adequate amount of testing by then or not. But, I seriously doubt that university presidents will want to devout money and resources toward athletic operations unless they are certain that the games can actually be played. It's bad being out TV and attendance revenue. It's worse being out the operational revenue on top of that, especially when they're having to make cuts, furloughs, and layoffs right now across campus as it is. If no cuts are made to athletics, and the games don't happen, good luck on maintaining any support from the faculty and staff if you're a university president.

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You clearly are not a student of Florida history.

The Cal State system has announced they will be online for the fall semester. This includes about half of the Big West along with Fresno State, San Jose State, and San Diego State. I assume this means they won’t be playing sports in the fall.

It’s starting to be rumored on Twitter that USC has reached out to Alabama and told them that they aren’t going to play in the season opener.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ColinCowh...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mli...outputType=amp

Promising!!!!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...me/5231877002/

It looks like the Ivy is moving football to the spring. They were also the first ones to cancel their basketball conference tournaments.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamzag.../#4a08367b6037

Ivy League has canceled all sports until January 1

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Originally Posted by xubrew

Ivy League has canceled all sports until January 1

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Let’s see, they’re the smart ones, right?

I’m not seeing an NFL season this year. I hope I’m wrong. We wanted to head up the the NC mountains for a little trip, but passed due to mandatory mask policies. Today it comes out our Mayor is instituting a similar policy. How do you start training camp and pull off a season in this environment? Do the Bills go into quarantine after playing the Dolphins on the road? What happens when your OLine meeting room is devastated by infections? So many questions, so few answers.

Rumors are that the Big Ten is meeting tomorrow to discuss a 10 game conference only schedule. Not sure what the point of that is. I don’t think you’re any more or less likely to become infected playing OOC games.

I simply don't get the Ivy League decision. Plenty of contactless sports (track, tennis, golf, cross country) that can be played in the Fall safely. There is no way they play Spring football either. Not after the winter and cold/flu season.

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Originally Posted by Lamont Sanford

I simply don't get the Ivy League decision. Plenty of contactless sports (track, tennis, golf, cross country) that can be played in the Fall safely. There is no way they play Spring football either. Not after the winter and cold/flu season.

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I'm not sure of their athletic financials, and maybe this is off base because they dont have the television deals that high major d 1 schools do, but maybe since they were not going to be able to play football or basketball, they cancelled everything that was a non revenue generating sport as well.

I really dont know how college football is going to happen this year. I dont see it happening, and if that doesnt happen, I dont see how most schools are going to have any athletics this school year. For a lot of schools, that is 1 of 2 or maybe 3 that actually produce money, the other sports at best break even and most lose money overall.

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Originally Posted by Xville

I'm not sure of their athletic financials, and maybe this is off base because they dont have the television deals that high major d 1 schools do, but maybe since they were not going to be able to play football or basketball, they cancelled everything that was a non revenue generating sport as well.

I really dont know how college football is going to happen this year. I dont see it happening, and if that doesnt happen, I dont see how most schools are going to have any athletics this school year. For a lot of schools, that is 1 of 2 or maybe 3 that actually produce money, the other sports at best break even and most lose money overall.

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Basketball makes more money than football for the Ivy League schools. I think it's more or less a matter of them not wanting to tell some sports they can play and other sports that they cannot.

There is a good chance the Patriot League will make the same decision.

This is running pretty rampant through the schools that brought players back for voluntary workouts. It's more than what's been reported in the press. If it's this bad now, then one can reason that it will be even worse when they start to actually travel and play against other teams. Then again, one can reason that it won't be as bad. If everyone gets it now, then they may be recovered and immune from it later. Who knows?

I'm just guessing, but I think that if colleges reopen then by the end of September this will be at a level that it has not been at before. You can social distance in classrooms, and in residence halls, and in dining halls, but any social distancing rules that any college tries to put in place will be followed by the students in about the same way that the no alcohol rules are followed. Those first few weekends when they're crammed into crowded house parties, and yelling over loud music, and drinking/sharing plastic cups, and grinding on each other, and slobbering all over the place because...well...drunk people slobber a lot, this is going to explode. I think any college that wants to reopen has to anticipate that 1/3rd of their students will become infected. Now, if the trends are correct, then more than 90 percent of them will recover without having to go to the hospital, so one could argue that schools should still try and stay open, but this is going to spread in a big way. You can't have college sports without the college. Maybe shutting down college sports for at least the fall, but keeping the schools open, is the best way to go.

I keep flip-flopping.

My thoughts have gone from "It'll be over by the Spring" to "College football may not happen" to "Hey, it looks like it'll subside by the Fall and college football will happen!" to "No way college football happens" to "It looks like they're going to try and play and will probably succeed! We will have football" to "It once again looks like there won't be any football."

I don't think there will be college sports this fall. That's what I think....today. Tomorrow, I may think that they will happen again.

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Originally Posted by xubrew

I keep flip-flopping.

My thoughts have gone from "It'll be over by the Spring" to "College football may not happen" to "Hey, it looks like it'll subside by the Fall and college football will happen!" to "No way college football happens" to "It looks like they're going to try and play and will probably succeed! We will have football" to "It once again looks like there won't be any football."

I don't think there will be college sports this fall. That's what I think....today. Tomorrow, I may think that they will happen again.

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You should apply for a position at the CDC.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

You should apply for a position at the CDC.

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Hmmmm.....I wonder how much they pay their test subjects? I’m qualified to do that!!

College sports are so tough. Simple guess but I think I could see Big East go just to conference only schedule. Announce it now so it gives you another 4+months to see how fall goes before straight canceling the year.

Hope I am wrong but I don't see CBB happening either. I do see NFL happening, and NBA.

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Originally Posted by Xavier

College sports are so tough. Simple guess but I think I could see Big East go just to conference only schedule. Announce it now so it gives you another 4+months to see how fall goes before straight canceling the year.

Hope I am wrong but I don't see CBB happening either. I do see NFL happening, and NBA.

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Why? The season starts in November. It’s 5 months away. We haven’t even been in the pandemic officially for 5 months yet.

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Originally Posted by drudy23

Why? The season starts in November. It’s 5 months away. We haven’t even been in the pandemic officially for 5 months yet.

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Unfortunately, we do not seem to be trending in the right direction. Quite the opposite. I’m hoping for a vaccine in another 6 months or so, as well as some better treatment protocols. They HAVE learned a lot already, it seems.

I’m very concerned about any fall sports at this point, with or without fans. Just when the Bills stand the best chance of winning the AFCE this century. Figures..........

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Originally Posted by xu82

Unfortunately, we do not seem to be trending in the right direction. Quite the opposite. I’m hoping for a vaccine in another 6 months or so, as well as some better treatment protocols. They HAVE learned a lot already, it seems.

I’m very concerned about any fall sports at this point, with or without fans. Just when the Bills stand the best chance of winning the AFCE this century. Figures..........

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It depends on what trending in the right direction means. New York went through what Texas is going through now and it eventually leveled off so probably in the next month we should start trending down everywhere. Probably a good chance if we never shut down that we would be through this already. In addition we are seeing a lot of cases but that was to be expected since a lot more people are getting tested and on top of that the positive rate is higher but the death rate keeps dropping. A lot of positive tests are with people with zero symptoms. With that said I think college football screwed and basketball may be as well because people are flipping out about the higher positives showing up but since we seem to be protecting older more vulnerable people, we are not seeing mass deaths like before. Texas has 230,000 positive cases and 2,900 deaths. Arizona has over 100,000 cases and 2,000 deaths. Ohio has 60,000 cases and 3,000 deaths, most from two months ago because a lot of the deaths were from nursing homes or older people not being protected. So I think we are in much better shape now than we were as far as a health risk goes.