Well, how much of a chance??
They were placed #6 overall when they released the protected seeds a few weeks ago. The thing about Dayton is that it's unusual for a team to be seeded that high with no wins against anyone in the top half of the bracket, and it would be almost unprecedented for them to give a #1 seed to a team like that. But...they might. I gave up trying to guess what they were going to do a long time ago.