They are the country of love and that leads to more cases.....Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
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They are the country of love and that leads to more cases.....Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Not sure how, but it's definitely trump's fault.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Thank you for further illustrating msm and your tds. Maybe listen to what he actually said/says and understand, rather than letting places like the washington post jump to conclusions that fit their narrative.Quote:
Originally Posted by X-man
Btw, he's not my hero and I'm not voting for him nor biden for that matter.
One thing I would love to see with the daily news reports of new cases is the percent who tested positive.
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You can get that data from this source - you'll have to do a little math to get that percentage:Quote:
Originally Posted by bjf123
https://covidtracking.com/data/national
I just did a graph showing percent of new cases to total tests. That rate has been trending in the 5-8% range since early May - most of that time within the 5-6% range. It was 5.4% yesterday.
So, yes, "cases" are rising because testing is rising.
Also, and more importantly, deaths have remained flat since mid-May - while "cases" rise. See charts 4 and 6:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...y=OWID_WRL+USA
You know that if a person takes a test, and is positive but asymptomatic, that's a good thing...not a bad thing.
A person like that can be advised that are carrying the virus and hopefully not spread it to his family/friends/others.
If we had contact tracing in place, we could see where he might have got it and help others.
Why anyone would think testing is not beneficial is well beyond me.
I don't THINK (definitely not 100% sure on that) anyone is arguing against testing. Merely pointing out that perhaps we don't actually have more cases now than we had previously. Instead, we're just discovering more of the cases now that there is more testing than we did previously.
Stop with the logic. No place for it here...Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
I'm primarily interested in 2 numbers: Hospitalizations and deaths. Hospitalizations are trending upward along with cases, which suggests to me that the issue is more than just increased testing - although increased testing is clearly a major factor in increased confirmed cases.
Deaths have thus far stayed relatively flat, which is a good thing. To me that suggests either (1) better treatment (2) younger average age of new COVID cases, or (3) most likely a combination of both.
It's certainly not as bad as the overall case numbers suggest, but I do think it's probably heading in the wrong direction to some degree. That's of course being exacerbated by the fact that most people hate Trump, and the fact that his administration can't manage a message to save their lives.
"Meanwhile, despite having the highest rate of tests per capita, the U.S. faces the largest outbreak in the world and new cases continue to trend upwards in many states." - Johns Hopkins 10/27/2020Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Yes, more tests and more "confirmed" cases. They go hand in hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
Note, we have the highest rate of tests per capita, but presently we're far from having the largest outbreak in the world per capita. France is eating our escargot on that front.
I guess you're still having reading comprehension issues. If you weren't, you might have noticed that the Washington Post article I linked contains what Trump said. Brush up on those skills and get back to me, OK?Quote:
Originally Posted by Xville
In a massive way. France has been reporting 350 cases per 100K for the past few weeks while the US has been around 20, I think.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Some of it is probably due to their population density being nearly 3x that us the United States, but it's far from a complete explanation. Even if you triple the US COVID new cases France is well above that. They have a major problem.
You're right, it does, and then it takes that information and says things like " trump suggests by these statements...(enter tds narrative here)." which is complete nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by X-man
Check out Belgium and Czech rates per capita... As weather cools and people gather indoors the transmission rates soar. Hopefully the next wave of vaccine data is good. There were reports from the UK that population immunity is waning compared to a few months ago which doesn’t bode well for the “herd immunity” from illness method.Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Meanwhile trust in a vaccine being safe is diminishing as well.
Quick note on testing: most health care systems are not testing asymptomatic patients. We hear about asymptomatic positives from sports teams and schools but the asymptomatic general population is not being mass tested. It’s a small percentage of positive tests from what I’ve seen and read. I’m the community there is noticeable increase in respiratory illness in general, and COVID numbers will continue to go up too. Then go down. Then go up. Repeat...
Don't look now, but Sweden seems to be weathering the second wave better than anyone else in Europe.
Funny you should say that, because “not looking” has actually been an important part of my coping plan!Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Still worse than their comparable counties of Norway, Finland, and Denmark from what I’m seeing, no? Better than Switzerland currently which is a change though.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Could be. I was actually just comparing first wave to second, and Sweden was the only one I saw whose second wave was not as bad as its first. Everyone else was worse. Usually much worse. However, turns out of the three you mentioned Norway's second wave also isn't as bad yet. I missed them the first time flipping through the map.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
Which part of these direct quotes from Trump, “People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots” or "But Fauci is a disaster” or “'He wants to listen to Dr. Fauci,' Trump said of Biden at the rally", don't you understand?Quote:
Originally Posted by Xville
If you watched trump in this instance, instead of just believing whatever the MSM states what he meant to fit their narrative, you would know that everything he is referring to is the fear porn that keeps increasing every time Fauci speaks. That's what he means by a disaster and tired of hearing him speak. People are tired of living in fear, and are frankly burnt out on hearing about covid. That is completely different than the way your beloved msm interprets it, which is that trump is the antichrist and hates science, Fauci, rainbows and kicks puppies.Quote:
Originally Posted by X-man
This is some pretty interesting logic - so basically we have a Pandemic going on, but if we just get tired if it we should opt out of acknowledging it as a reality in which we have to live? Somehow wholesale rejection of reality is an appropriate counter measure to a media that is sensationalizing the virus?Quote:
Originally Posted by Xville
This is exactly the kind of 'take the easy way out' bullshit that I would expect from Donald Trump. He sells simple answers for simple people. "I know you are tired of hearing about the virus. Don't worry, it will go away. Don't listen to almost every qualified infectious disease specialist either. They are idiots. Listen to me - the guy who is telling you what you want to hear."
There is ample footing of Donald Trump saying almost unbelievably stupid shit about the virus (and all manner of things, really). Nobody has to rely on the media's interpretation of it.
Gray area, bitches. Death overcount.
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1321216661819592705?s=20
Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Is this how we made WWII and Vietnam go away? It must have been exhausting. Change the channel or close our eyes? FIXED!!!
Geezus. Dont think he is saying that either, but alrighty.Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Not saying that some (small) portion of deaths aren't being over counted, but relying on a twitter feed from a consistently and aggressively right wing pundit, whose source appears to be another twitter feed from someone called 'woke zombie' seems at least a little questionable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
My assumption without having all the facts would be that someone could be counted as a death this week while having tested positive for the virus 6 months ago if they were either (1) on a ventilator for the past 6 months and recently removed, or (2) potentially died of clear complications from COVID, which is also a thing that can happen. Those are also 14 deaths out of 14K in New Jersey alone.
Honest question: Why is the same standard used to critique the 'mainstream media' not applied to alternative right wing sources? It seems like it's always 'Can you believe how biased the msm is? Anyways, check out this link to Glenn Beck's twitter feed! He makes some really good points!"
I think that's pretty much exactly what he is saying. We are 4 years into this shit show with countless hours of footage of Trump saying (repeatedly) almost unbelievably stupid things. Then doubling down on those stupid things. Not even stupid things for a President. Just stupid things for a person. Every time it happens a bunch of people sift through mountains of subtext to explain what he 'really meant', or 'He's just trolling the msm', or other explanation. It seems like there is more evidence to support that he is just an incredibly flawed human being who is unbelievably out of his league as the President of the United States of America. It's unfortunately being even more exposed because there is a global crisis right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xville
C'mon, you can't be serious. The source was data pulled from the NJ Covid website. Data actually showing that 4 of these deaths had a case date 4 to 6 months ago. Your assumption is preposterous.Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Overtesting + False positives + financial incentive = Cases overcount = Death overcount.
So what % do you believe there to be an overcount? Do you believe every COVID death has been captured? What about false negatives, which far outweigh false positives en vivo? Bottom line is it sounds like you believe this is overblown, is that a fair assumption? You didn’t reply to my previous critique on the article you posted on masking so it’s tough to know where you stand BUT you have posted recently in this thread that cases and deaths are overcounted, masks are ineffective, and testing is useless and perhaps counterproductive since we don’t know each tests’ amplification cycle rate. I guess I’m not sure what argument you ar making, if any, or just playing devils advocate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Been in contact with a friend in Switzerland. She said that the country was ready to go into their second lockdown. The next day I looked up Europe and saw that shit is really starting to hit the Covid fan.
I have many people from different backgrounds come into my office. A lot of times I'll say, 'so, how are you dealing with all of this Covid crap. I had one lady tell me that her mom passed away in her sleep. She was in her 90's. The death certificate said cause of death was Covid. She was angry while telling me this and said that she had to fight to get that removed. Another gentleman told me that his son had died in a motorcycle accident and it was reported as a Covid death. He too fought to have the death certificate changed. I believed them both. The woman was very angry and the man went on for five minutes about how horrible it is to lose a child. These were both in the Cincinnati area
Updating...with today's data, Sweden's second wave (by cases) has exceeded its first wave peak. And Norway has tied its first wave peak. So all of Europe is seeing more cases in the second wave than in the first (which, I am sure, has something to do with more widespread testing now as well).Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
As to your prior post, sorry, Lloyd. I didn't I didn't see anything to respond to. So my response is "OK". I have nothing else to add.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
False negatives are not a bigger problem than false positives - not even close. Let me know if you need me to present the math again.
As to the death overcount, the best way to estimate CV19 deaths, is to start with total 2020 excess deaths, all causes. Then subtract estimated year-over-year increase due to aging population. Then subtract deaths caused by lockdowns (suicide, OD, lack of proper medical care, etc.). These numbers could be debated for hours, as they are estimates of estimates, but I am confident it's well under 200k.
You summarize my points well, but I don't believe masks are ineffective. They are minimally effective. There's too much practical evidence to believe they are more than that. Wear them when in public, indoors, and around people for more than a few minutes. I do.
My argument? I guess I feel an obligation to illuminate that the metrics being used to drive policy (#cases, #deaths, test accuracy, positivity rate) are not absolutes. Not by a long-shot, and need to be understood in the proper context. Taking these at face value is causing very bad policy decisions, that will ultimately hurt society much more than they help.
The virus cannot be stopped - not by shutdowns, not by masks, or perhaps even by a vaccine. We need to accept that. But the good news is it is not nearly as bad as it's been made out to be, and it can be managed. Practice common sense hygiene, self isolate with symptoms, protect the vulnerable (as a society), and otherwise live our lives - 100%. This will meet the original goal of preventing hospitals from exceeding capacity, while minimizing overall deaths and minimizing collateral social damage. In short, it's for the greatest common good. That has been my argument since May.
So who's planning to follow the "California Rules" on family gatherings this holiday season? As my wife has two siblings, I'm eager to find out which of the kids' families is left out. Also, I hope we either have a warm holiday season or they're stocked up on propane and outdoor heaters since holiday gatherings need to be outside.
The no shouting or singing rule won't really resonate with my German/Italian family.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
We will probably skip the holiday gatherings this year. We weren't going to go back for Thanksgiving anyways. Not going home for Christmas means that we don't have to drive 10hrs each way with 3 kids and a dog packed into a minivan with a ton of presents. It doesn't seem worth the risk to stay at my parent's house for a week plus with a bunch of kids and people coming and going. It might be kind of nice, actually. If a little boring.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Having said that - We are having a Halloween party on Saturday at our house with about 6 families from our neighborhood. We have generally been going the same places and socializing outdoors all Summer and fall. We feel like it's a reasonably safe 'pod', even if it's a little on the larger side. It's hard to randomly exclude people, although our neighbors who are Doctors have opted out of socializing for the most part as they view themselves as high risk.
We will gather outside and I have had my patio expanded and purchased propane heaters etc. to extend the outdoor entertaining season. Once we can't entertain outdoors we will probably shut it down for the winter. South Jersey winters aren't usually too cold so I'm hoping we get lucky this year.
New song from Van Morrison - damn, I love him even more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUOWS7arfw4
More songs and info here: https://www.rockcellarmagazine.com/v...t-song-listen/
We don't do anything for Thanksgiving as we're far from family, but we'll be jammed in at the in-laws' for a week with cousins all around us. My parents probably won't let us inside the house, but I guess we'll stop by for a short visit on the patio on the way through town.Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Somehow we became The Hub for Thanksgiving. Maybe a couple dozen people on average. It’s one of two meals a year my wife insists on handling (the other being a repeat for Christmas), so I get the day off in the kitchen.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
I thought this year would obviously be different. Then I learn my sister and her husband plan to come down from Wisconsin to be with their two daughters here. My 93 year old mother needs to be included, of course. We win Thanksgiving with our son and his wife since they do a HUGE thing for Christmas with her HUGE family (she’s one if six daughters, most older with families) in Florida. My son has been talking to the son of a couple who has been with us on Thanksgiving for years. This family has two sons, one will be married and the other is engaged. My wife’s assistant is the daughter of some of our closest friends from Florida, and she doesn’t know anyone but our clan in Atlanta. She just moved here to work for my wife. We have some other friends (my tennis buddy in Florida) who have moved up here and are wondering what to do. They are pretty damn active, always out and about and have three kids college age and up. There are a few others who are “almost alone” who we always include.
This SEEMS to possibly be spiraling upward and I need to get proactive about drawing lines and setting expectations. It’s just hard to know where to draw the line.
I'll be hitting Huntington Beach to see #1 son as usual with a stopover in Vegas. Hope the weather is decent and I don't catch on fire along the way.
Really? What a hypocrite....Mr. Superspreader!Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
My brother, also an X grad is having Tgiving on his screened in porch with propane heaters. Indy is usually pretty cold in Nov, so I hope the heaters work.