Covid-19

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

I think that would be good news, right? If you flatten the curve, the peak is much later (as well as being much more manageable).

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Yeah from a purely medical standpoint that would be good from what I understand.

Boris Johnson is in the ICU.

In a bit of good news, new cases are WAY down from 4/3 to 4/4. As a matter of fact, you have to go all the way back to 3/29 to find a day with a smaller number of new cases. Let's hope this becomes a trend!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

This whole thing has me pretty distressed.

The shelter in place orders will only keep it from spreading. The problem is that I'm not sure there is an end game plan. Even if the numbers go way down, the vast majority of people won't have immunity. It could come back just as quickly as it did throughout March and April. And as it has been pointed out, people aren't going to just stay at home forever. If faced with being out of work, not having an income, having to give up important parts of their lives like Easter, and seeing their friends/families, and what not, eventually they're going to just say they don't care if they get sick. They'd rather have their lives back and take their chances. Being sick for two weeks with a 98% chance of survival is going to sound preferable to being shut in for two years, which is conceivably how long it could take until there is an available vaccine. I think people have to at least feel that we are working toward the end, and I'm not sure that we are. Metaphorically speaking, we might be content to be stuck in the car for now, but eventually we are going to have to find a way to kill Cujo and get away even if it means taking a huge risk.

I'm starting to hear rumblings of college football and all other fall sports being postponed until the Spring. That alone may send much of the Southeastern part of the country over the edge.

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Originally Posted by xubrew

This whole thing has me pretty distressed.

The shelter in place orders will only keep it from spreading. The problem is that I'm not sure there is an end game plan. Even if the numbers go way down, the vast majority of people won't have immunity. It could come back just as quickly as it did throughout March and April. And as it has been pointed out, people aren't going to just stay at home forever. If faced with being out of work, not having an income, having to give up important parts of their lives like Easter, and seeing their friends/families, and what not, eventually they're going to just say they don't care if they get sick. They'd rather have their lives back and take their chances. Being sick for two weeks with a 98% chance of survival is going to sound preferable to being shut in for two years, which is conceivably how long it could take until there is an available vaccine. I think people have to at least feel that we are working toward the end, and I'm not sure that we are. Metaphorically speaking, we might be content to be stuck in the car for now, but eventually we are going to have to find a way to kill Cujo and get away even if it means taking a huge risk.

I'm starting to hear rumblings of college football and all other fall sports being postponed until the Spring. That alone may send much of the Southeastern part of the country over the edge.

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I don't think spring football would fly. You can't play March thru June and then expect to come back and play in September. Talk about law suits, with the extra amount of injuries that would most likely occur with bodies being way torn down. That would be like playing football for 10 out of 12 months with practices proceeding the start of games. Maybe you just play conference games but then overall revenue will plummet and many non power schools may have to drop football altogether. The small guys are the ones that will really be hurt through all of this. They still have to find ways to fund the program and a lot of them count on playing buy games with big time programs to help fund their own programs. My son plays for Middle Tennessee State and their head coach has helped fund scholarships over the last 4 years by deferring $100K per year of his salary.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

In a bit of good news, new cases are WAY down from 4/3 to 4/4. As a matter of fact, you have to go all the way back to 3/29 to find a day with a smaller number of new cases. Let's hope this becomes a trend!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

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Thanks, I’ll take any good news or glimmer of hope I can get at this point!

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Originally Posted by xubrew

I'm starting to hear rumblings of college football and all other fall sports being postponed until the Spring. That alone may send much of the Southeastern part of the country over the edge.

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Oh...we can go over the edge for lot less than that.

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Originally Posted by xavierj

I don't think spring football would fly. You can't play March thru June and then expect to come back and play in September. Talk about law suits, with the extra amount of injuries that would most likely occur with bodies being way torn down. That would be like playing football for 10 out of 12 months with practices proceeding the start of games. Maybe you just play conference games but then overall revenue will plummet and many non power schools may have to drop football altogether. The small guys are the ones that will really be hurt through all of this. They still have to find ways to fund the program and a lot of them count on playing buy games with big time programs to help fund their own programs. My son plays for Middle Tennessee State and their head coach has helped fund scholarships over the last 4 years by deferring $100K per year of his salary.

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Oh it would be a mess!

And, cancelling it altogether would be a mess.

And, playing before the virus is totally under control would potentially be a mess.


Such wonderful times we now live in!

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

I think that would be good news, right? If you flatten the curve, the peak is much later (as well as being much more manageable).

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Not necessarily. Flattening the curve is done to keep the number of cases within the capacity of the medical system - it doesn't decrease the area under the curve (i.e., number of cases). In a perfect world this thing will run its course as quickly as possible, without ever exceeding the medical system capacity - so flatten the curve to stay just below the line. Based on the model, there should be some easing of the social distancing measures soon in geographies where there is no danger of exceeding that capacity. Key words are "based on the model"...

Even if it doesn't decrease the area under the curve, flattening the curve is still a good thing. It's more manageable because the medical system capacity is not exceeded. To do that, you push the peak further out in the future. So I don't understand your response at all.