Covid-19

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Originally Posted by JTG

According to this quoted model the death rate is 93,000. That's a far cry from the millions some were quoting a few weeks ago.

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Correct. Those models were prior to the social distancing measures put in place, and this illustrates how effective social distancing can be. It's interesting to scroll through various States and look how the social distancing measures impact if they can or cannot stay within the capacity of their medical system (hospital/ICU beds).

Do keep in mind though that this is just the next four months, and does not consider future outbreaks discussed yesterday at the White House briefing.

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Originally Posted by JTG

According to this quoted model the death rate is 93,000. That's a far cry from the millions some were quoting a few weeks ago.

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Let's hope this new prediction is right. But the only "millions" of deaths predictions I have seen for the US were predicated on no mitigation activity, leading to a nationwide healthcare system completely overcome by the rapid peak. Thankfully, we have leaders who implemented strong mitigation measures in many states. I am thankful that DeWine is one of those leaders.

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Originally Posted by X-man

Let's hope this new prediction is right. But the only "millions" of deaths predictions I have seen for the US were predicated on no mitigation activity, leading to a nationwide healthcare system completely overcome by the rapid peak. Thankfully, we have leaders who implemented strong mitigation measures in many states. I am thankful that DeWine is one of those leaders.

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Yes exactly. Less deaths than originally predicted does not show an overreaction or failed prediction as much as it shows what we have implemented is working. Maybe some of both.

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Originally Posted by Xville

Anyone else think those death projections are complete nonsense and just a way to scare people into staying home? Btw I'm fine with that, but I still think those numbers are complete bs

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Based on what, exactly?

If you do the math its not that hard to see how 100K people can die in a country of 320MM people. If you use a 1% mortality rate (I realize that models differ significantly on the actual mortality of this virus) then you only need 10MM people to become infected to have 100K deaths, which is around 3% of the population.

The rate of spread we are seeing in NYC (and other pockets for that matter) should concern us. This is a big deal. There is no way Trump would have agreed to shut down the Country for as long as he has in the face of the economic impact we have seen unless he was very scared of what could happen (and how it would impact his reelection). Even the 'this whole thing is a liberal hoax' crowd has quieted down and changed their tune. They are doing that because the more data we see, the more concerning this is.

Trump has not shut down the country. He has issued no stay at home orders. That's been the governors and mayors to take credit for.

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Originally Posted by boozehound

Based on what, exactly?

If you do the math its not that hard to see how 100K people can die in a country of 320MM people. If you use a 1% mortality rate (I realize that models differ significantly on the actual mortality of this virus) then you only need 10MM people to become infected to have 100K deaths, which is around 3% of the population.

The rate of spread we are seeing in NYC (and other pockets for that matter) should concern us. This is a big deal. There is no way Trump would have agreed to shut down the Country for as long as he has in the face of the economic impact we have seen unless he was very scared of what could happen (and how it would impact his reelection). Even the 'this whole thing is a liberal hoax' crowd has quieted down and changed their tune. They are doing that because the more data we see, the more concerning this is.

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Because I absolutely do not believe 10 million people are going to be infected with this in the us. That surpasses every country's percentage by an astronomical amount that have had it in their country for far longer. Now I understand not everyone has been tested and it hasnt played out completely etc but let's take italy for example...60 million people, about 100k confirmed...let's just say it's really like 600k infected....correspondingly given same percentages that would be 3 million affected in the us. Even at 2 percent which I think is high that's 60,000 deaths.

I wonder what the response to this would have been if it was not an election year? Maybe It would have been the same.

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Originally Posted by xavierj

I wonder what the response to this would have been if it was not an electrician year? Maybe It would have been the same.

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I would be SHOCKED (get it?) if it were the same.

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Originally Posted by smileyy

Trump has not shut down the country. He has issued no stay at home orders. That's been the governors and mayors to take credit for.

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Because legally Trump can’t. I’d argue that most of the Governors have been acting unconstitutionally. Would you want a single man making those kind of decisions with no check on power whether you voted for him or not ?

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

I would be SHOCKED (get it?) if it were the same.

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now thats funny