Conference carousel to start spinning again?

Quoted from the Gonzaga board:

Matt Norlander
@MattNorlander
Made some calls on Gonzaga/Big 12. The biggest reason this is now A Thing again: Brett Yormark—who is 100% driving this—is seeking the most loaded basketball league imaginable so he can take the Big 12 to market at the end of the decade and have separate media deals for football and basketball.

Yormark still has pushback and caution from some Big 12 presidents and ADs. (There are also some who are all-in on the move and support it.) Yormark is trying to get this done ASAP but the feeling amongst some is: Gonzaga probably isn't going anywhere, why not wait a few years?
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Huge financial questions—the stuff that matters most to people running athletic departments and universities—are still not answered re: adding the Four Corner schools that will officially join next year. The ESPN and Fox deals for the 16-team Big 12 are still being ironed out.

From what I've been told, Big 12 leaders had a laundry list of Qs for Yormark last week and tasked him to bring back those to Gonzaga. With that, I think there's still some terms/negotiating points that Gonzaga might not be thrilled with that could cause it to pause and evaluate.

Big 12 needs 75% yes vote to clear Gonzaga. That doesn't exist right now. If a vote happened before June 30, 2024, nine out of 12 would have to be yeas. (No votes for OU, UT.) Four Corner schools have a voice but don't have a vote until 7.1.24 — then it has to be 12 out of 16.

This has to be vetted again at AD level before it gets to the presidents. My read: It seems a long shot to get a vote in favor of GU in near-future. One source said it would be “a grievous error to push this through right now.” Another: "It makes no sense to do this right now."

Smoke, but no fire yet, perhaps.

One aspect of this is the same as the Big East's attitude towards expansion as it relates to existing bball-only schools: they have nowhere else to go right now, so leave them be.

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Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z

Current AP Rankings
USC #6
FSU #8
A&M #23

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Well, FSU turned out to actually be good. Maybe. Hard to tell when the ACC is so bad. USC and A&M continue being in the dumpster fire business.

Gotta think FSU is beside itself right now having been left out of the football playoff. Undefeated season, and they get snubbed in favor of TWO teams with a loss. All their gripes seem pretty valid right now.

The sting should only hurt for one year, though. They get the auto bid next year, and might just get it every year going forward in a weak ACC. Silver lining…

Where do you think they would hope to land? The SEC?

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Florida State is now in unprecedented territory. No school has ever challenged a grant of rights in court.

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https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...withdrawal-fee

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Originally Posted by paulxu

Where do you think they would hope to land? The SEC?



https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...withdrawal-fee

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Shocking. Who could have predicted sucha thing?

Honestly, why WOUNDN'T they sue the ACC? If you lose, you're right back where you started before you sued them. And if you win, well you win.

Would the ACC "settle" this somehow to avoid the risk of a judgement that neuters the GOR? I would assume that their membership would have to vote to settle, and probably about 3-4 other teams in the membership would actually WANT the GOR to be removed. The ACC may be headed down a similar path that the Big East went down 12+ years ago. The "football" schools vs the "Basketball" schools in what may end up as an inevitable split. If this happens, I assume the BE will be sucked into the mix. Either through expansion of the BE, trying to grab some ACC properties or from the ACC trying to grab some BE teams.

Chaos.

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Originally Posted by paulxu

Where do you think they would hope to land? The SEC?
https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...withdrawal-fee

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The SEC already has a presence in Fla. The B10 would probably like to have. B12 might be more likely to make this kind of move as well.

It’s funny to me that Florida state thinks they are this important. Sec has zero desire nor needs to add them and I don’t think the big ten wants to expand. They may end up in the big 12 which eventually they will have the same “problem” there.

I don’t think the size of some of these conferences are sustainable. At some point, I think someone is going to start bitching that they should get a bigger piece of the pie because of who they are. I.e Texas, usc whoever.

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Originally Posted by paulxu

Where do you think they would hope to land? The SEC?


https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...withdrawal-fee

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The SEC not only doesn't need them, but would probably find them to be a negative value-add, especially when looking at it through a Gator lense or even a Georgia or Bama lense. Geographical dilution.

The B1G? Does FSU have the wherewithal to justify the media bump? Does the B1G want to invade SEC territory that badly? Is FSU even an institutional fit with respect to AAU and the other things that matter to the B1G leadership? I kind of doubt it.

FSU's legal position, in so many words: "You should have seen the SEC and B1G increases coming and you locked all of us in for too long a period" - The university alleges "chronic fiduciary mismanagement and bad faith" in the way the ACC has handled its multimedia rights agreements and undermined its members' revenue opportunities.

Can you seek damages from someone based on hindsight/based on the other party's failure to read the future tea leafs more accurately?

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Xavier will be directly affected by this if FSU is successful. Please humor me here - I'm going to take a shot at a possible waterfall outcome:

1. FSU succeeds, and leaves, even if leaving means leaving without a firm destination. They can argue free agency if Notre Dame is otherwise allowed to play on that basis, with respect to having a path to the CFP. Can they coddle together a good football schedule and enough media money to make it work? Who knows, but that's their problem. They wouldn't be going down this road if they didn't see some form of landing pad for them.

2. At the very least, UNC, Miami and Clemson clamor to pull the trigger themselves, especially if the two behemoths - the B1G and the SEC - say that maybe going to 20+ ain't such a bad idea after all.

3. Comically (I did ask you to humor me) Yomark and the Big 12 soil themselves and run to the restroom puking as they realize that having Oklahoma State as the conference football flagship is like standing on the bridge of the Bismark with the rudder already knocked out by a torpedo. Yes, they could pick up some of the lessor ACC football members, but at what "cost" to the media distribution figures.

- - - Now, at this point, material movement and anarchy only really is possible IF the B1G and SEC decide to expand club membership. Let's say they do - - -

4. The ACC is as close to being mortally wounded as possible with the defections of FSU, Clemson, UNC and Miami. Perhaps UVA also, given the brand. NC State? V Tech? In the grand scheme of things, who cares, except for certain politicians in those states who risk having their homes egged if they don't try to do something. With all due respect, calling up Marshall and Appalachian State isn't going to cut it from a go-forward media payout basis for what would constitute the ACC at that point.

Here's my bottomline with my thinking: at the point where all this actually happens, if it all happens, there will not be enough good back fill to hold the ACC together as a legitimate "power" (it really isn't one now) football conference. Forget Washington State and Oregon State. Hell, Stanford and Cal may stay home on some basis rather than continue with this mess. SMU? They'll still think they've made it to the promised land and will make sure that a sufficient number of oil wells keep pumping to subsidize them forward.

What does that mean for Xavier? Here's where it gets tricky. There isn't one remaining ACC school that will put basketball in front of football at this point. Too much pride. Too much alumni concern over it. Just simply too much athletic department infrastructure and alumni funding risk to throw in the towel. Yet, they truly will not be able to fortify THE ACC CONFERENCE sans the primary lost football schools. Again, calling up Marshall and Appalachian State isn't the answer financially.

Can they find a hybrid solution? The ACC front office isn't going to like being put out of work, but can the remaining ACC football schools pull a UCONN?

If they can find a way to go independent or lobby the NCAA to allow for a football break off with other sports allowed to comprise conference centric sports, then the Big East could possibly be sitting pretty, or prettier. So, they go independent, or they're allowed to coddle together a football only conference that still has access to the CFP.

Let them solve for football as best they can, while maximizing the value of their basketball programs. Duke, Syracuse and Pitt join the Big East to take us to 14 and we hold there, with all that happening with a nice bump to the existing $4 million per school.

One can dream. It's going to be dizzy and fluid for a little while longer.

I wonder if the ACC presidents got together, and faced with a possible conference implosion as the case winds its way along, decide that maybe an "unequal" sharing of media $ (more to teams like FSU) just to keep the conference from disintegrating would be an option.

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Originally Posted by paulxu

I wonder if the ACC presidents got together, and faced with a possible conference implosion as the case winds its way along, decide that maybe an "unequal" sharing of media $ (more to teams like FSU) just to keep the conference from disintegrating would be an option.

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That ship has sailed. The other university presidents are basically telling fsu to piss off