Not sure if the players go for this but it’s a start.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...us/3107614001/
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Not sure if the players go for this but it’s a start.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...us/3107614001/
This will clear it all up for you XUBrew:
https://700wlw.iheart.com/featured/s...this-pandemic/
I think this deserves to be here as well as the modeling thread. For all the grief the Georgia Governor got (and I still think he’s a bit of a moron, but maybe a lucky one), the chart in this link is extremely encouraging. I hope this trend continues as we open up, because it’s pretty damn impressive!
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
This was awesome!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Agreed. I've set about following each of her recommendations.Quote:
Originally Posted by xubrew
Man. That would be wildly encouraging if it continues.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
Not only was that hilarious, but how I’ve felt over the last two months. Thanks for postingQuote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
This seems like a good way to reopen... by region. May have been mentioned somewhere on this thread awhile ago.
These data are incredible!Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
Oh, NBC news just reported “cases in Georgia are up 64% since reopening”. WTF????
I JUST SAW THAT! That chart updates throughout the day. They should have to explain that shit! I can’t swear to who is correct, but one thing is not like the other here. I don’t trust the state, who is trying to justify opening, and I certainly don’t trust anything from the media. So......WTF indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Maybe with such small numbers, 1 extra case makes for a wild swing? Did they pick the smallest, ugliest sample size over 1 or 2 days to make their point and frighten people?
.
No. The cases have dropped 8 days in a row and 13 of the last 14, and dropped sharply. These are health dept data! NBC is outright lying. Disgusting.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
I’m sure they didn’t just pluck 64% out of the air. I wonder if they chose just Fulton County, or how they came up with that. It’s either sloppy reporting.........or something much worse. Unless the state is playing games with the numbers. I don’t trust Gov Kemp either. My little pipe dream is to catch one side, the other or both at playing fast and loose with the numbers to make thier point. But it will never happen......Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
The Governor is a moron but manipulating health department data would be a serious criminal act, and I don’t think it is realistic possible. As to the 64%, no - data are what the data are. Unless they cherry picked the one day of the last 14 the cases didn’t drop and compared it to a day the cases were low during lockdown... and that would still be lying.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
People play (and lie) with numbers all the time. In this case, I just ask that they “show their work”. That would expose them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Dewine delays his announcement on daycares saying it has to be supported by science. Science says that Ohio has had ZERO deaths between the ages of 0 and 19 and two deaths between the ages of 20 and 29.
People going back to work need care for their kids. People need to get back to work. My stance on all this stuff keeps swaying as new info comes in, but it’s so hard to know who and what to trust. What a mess we are!Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
I don’t think his decision is being based on children dying, nor ever has it been. Not saying I think they should keep daycares closed but that it is more about disease transmission and their roles.Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
I emailed and requested the source and data for this claim. If I hear back (not holding my breath) I’ll let you know what they say.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
A recent study shows that the herd immunity level is a lot lower than originally believed when accounting for how this thing actually spreads. Caveat: this is mathematically estimated, and we know how that has been working... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....06.20093336v1
Is anyone else skeptical that all of these kids are asymptomatic petrie dishes that are getting everyone else sick? All of the studies say they “think” this is the case, but there has been no proof because kids aren’t getting tested. They all say most kids get this and spread it to others.
Why the hell then wouldn’t they be giving antibody tests to a random sampling of kids to confirm that most have had this? Things just aren’t adding up with all of this. Every study says something different. I believe we’ve been misled in more ways than one.
This is the reason they won’t open schools but I’ve yet to see one study confirming it to be true and scientifically proven.
Children are being tested and the tests themselves are being tested to determine accuracy. I haven’t seen anything published to support this theory but there is a chance that cross reactivity may be clouding data, and not just in children. For example, someone with immunity to a similar virus triggering a positive antibody test. Correlating antibody test results with nasal swabs/symptoms and determining if asymptomatic children are shedding viruses is taking a long time. This is why testing is so important and not a red herring, more data is needed to decide what to do regarding masks and distancing protocols. Can we require kids to wear masks? Good luck with that, it’s hard enough to get adults to comply.
A study in Australia says that kids are unlikely to transmit it to othersQuote:
Originally Posted by drudy23
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...reopen-schools
https://www.health.gov.au/news/getti...atter-of-trust
As with everything else in this disease there is conflicting data. This study shows a large viral load in infected children. The infection rate in children is still significantly lower but the point remains that nothing is clear cut here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
One solid takeaway from this study however is that viral loads after 7 days are pretty low, even in those critically ill. So pretty much once symptoms start you are contagious for about a week, which is what decent news that it is not 2+ weeks.
Maybe the Mexicans are onto something and we can do this before work or everyday nationwide...
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...avirus-covid19
Not trying to argue, just adding another country's study. Iceland found similar results to Australia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...source=twitterQuote:
Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill. What is interesting is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.
Well sure they do, Iceland shut down the whole country including schools and only had 1800 cases and 10 deaths. Children weren’t going anywhere to get the virus.... It’s essentially eradicated there, for now.
Contact tracing on children is incredibly difficult, as is distancing them. I have no idea what the right answer is but IMO- I would send them back in the fall. Re-open daycares and have stricter policies for “no sick kids”. If your kid is sick, don’t send them to daycare and implement quick testing to return.
At this point I agree with the 'no school until fall' thing. The school year is basically over. You could potentially allow High School Seniors (or upperclassmen in general) back for a month, but I'm not sure what the point would be. Small children won't wear masks or social distance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
I also agree with those who are skeptical of the concept of kids as asymptomatic super spreaders. It's certainly possible - particularly given how much young children spread germs in general due to poor hand washing, face touching, not covering up coughs and sneezes. We still need to figure out how many kids even get the virus though. This is a key piece of information not necessarily just because of schooling but day care for Parents to go back to work.
1 sneeze= 200,000,000 virus particles.
https://www.twobillsdrive.com/commun...2e06b5538f.png
Here is the chart (a few days old, it looks even better now) showing cases clearly declining.
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news-full-episodes
Here is the NBC Nightly news from last night (about the 5:30 mark) saying how Georgia cases have surged 64% since beginning to reopen. OK, the total cases are still going up, but at a greatly declining rate. Talk about some media bullshit! There used to be days with ~900 new cases, now it’s more like a dozen. But they sure can scare the shit out of the old ladies in the retirement home! Like my mother who watches the news (against our wishes) then says “I was sure I’d be dead by now!”
I know, I know....what do you expect......
EDIT: one of the peak days (4/27) was 920 confirmed new cases. So far today there a grand total of 3 (THREE!) confirmed new cases, and just 24 hours ago NBC used said cases “SURGED 64%” since opening up. That is deliberately misleading and inexcusable fear mongering!
.
This is a hell of a side effect from stay at home and unemployment. Hopefully this study is way off!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ns/3081706001/
Tonight, NBC had “unreleased new data” showing “a 72% surge in cases where States have reopened”. Top secret never before seen data!Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
Oh, and color me shocked that there was no response to my email inquiry as to the source of the data in the story you mention above.
It’s a downright lie.
Meanwhile, in Sweden, cases continue to drop, and intensive care beds and deaths have plummeted to a level so low they haven’t seen them since mid-March. WITHOUT EVER SHUTTING DOWN:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...6f9f87457ed9aa
So we will kill 150k people saving maybe a few thousand had we ended this lockdown a month ago when it became apparent it wasn’t nearly as bad as the model predicted. Way to see the big picture Fauci et al.Quote:
Originally Posted by noteggs
Nice useless and baseless scare tactic that means nothing. Do you work for NBC?Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
I’m glad your fellow Georgians are feeling so much better.
DTechnically, I think it MAY be (almost) statistically accurate, but it is definitely deliberately misleading. Georgia was having about 900 new cases per day when reopening. The new cases are dropping rapidly, but for many days the total was very high, so that was increasing the total cases since the beginning. They ignore the trend because it’s positive, and focus on how many more cases there are overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
There is a guy who is “owning” this topic on my NFL message board. He’s a mod and has a PhD in microbiology. He worked in Big Pharma and university research he for decades. He agrees it’s deliberately misleading and alarmist, but did the math and says it’s closer to a 53% increase. Still a big number, still BS by the media to not present the full picture.
Either way, it’s just plain wrong.
Well.........THAT was cheery!Quote:
Originally Posted by noteggs
I’m ashamed to say how little this has affected me so far. I fully realize the deep impact of all this, but my life has changed because I can’t go out to lunch every day and I just walk instead of playing tennis. I guess hearing my wife work from home impacts me. Hell, the fact that she’s in the same city makes it different!
These past two months have been absolute hell for me and I know there are others in much worse situations than I am so I almost feel guilty for saying how shitty this has been.
Working from home with 3 year old twins is not possible yet company still expects the numbers (I'm in sales.) Its been absolutely miserable for me to basically be confined to.my home day after day after day...feel like I'm in groundhog day.
I will never understand people who like working from home, I absolutely hate it, even when the kids are in daycare.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xville
I enjoyed working from home, but I also enjoyed a little camaraderie at the office when I chose it. I had an ideal gig for me, and I miss it!
My wife is on calls and webex all day. She has ENORMOUS empathy for those who have kids at home. Brings it up several times a week. Good luck to you!
So wear a F-ing mask!Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
I'm admittedly conservative, but have zero problem wearing one.
To be fair, that appears to be just an extrapolation based on the forecasted impact of a recession that we don't know the severity of. It's more 'fear porn' just aimed in a different direction. I believe there is absolutely a toll here, but 150K seems aggressive. Although their cover their bases be forecasting a huge range. It's just another model that is probably inaccurate, much like the ones that MOR has posted about 154,245,592 times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton