Covid-19

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01-21-2021, 01:04 PM
paulxu

Yikes. I always knew there was no plan for replacing the ACA after 4 years of it being promised "next week."
But with 400,000 dead, I really didn't expect this:

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/h...3-f22339f5a2fd
01-21-2021, 01:24 PM
GoMuskies

Isn't Biden's "ambitious" proposal to do 100 million doses in 100 days? We're almost doing 1 million some days now, so I'm not sure how ambitious that is, but if the Trump administration had no plan and had almost gone from 0 to 1 million per day, then it should be a SUPER easy target for the Biden admin to hit since they're going to be so wonderful.
01-21-2021, 01:41 PM
Xville

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoMuskies

Isn't Biden's "ambitious" proposal to do 100 million doses in 100 days? We're almost doing 1 million some days now, so I'm not sure how ambitious that is, but if the Trump administration had no plan and had almost gone from 0 to 1 million per day, then it should be a SUPER easy target for the Biden admin to hit since they're going to be so wonderful.

Yep some pretty good spin here by the Biden administration. About 800k on average being administered daily already.
01-21-2021, 01:44 PM
drudy23

Constant smoke and mirrors - the goal isn't to get stuff done, it's to appear you've gotten stuff done.

Same as the corporate nonsense I'm sure most of us witness on a daily basis.
01-21-2021, 03:27 PM
xu82

Quote:

Originally Posted by muskiefan82

I get my second shot in a week. I have heard the same types of things, but I am still going to get it.

I would absolutely follow thru, myself. Good luck to you. I know others have had the second shot and been fine.
01-21-2021, 05:56 PM
noteggs

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulxu

Yikes. I always knew there was no plan for replacing the ACA after 4 years of it being promised "next week."
But with 400,000 dead, I really didn't expect this:

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/h...3-f22339f5a2fd

If you still believe in Fauci, he said this is not true. I know, hard to believe CNN sources are not always accurate.
01-21-2021, 06:13 PM
GIMMFD

Quote:

Originally Posted by noteggs

If you still believe in Fauci, he said this is not true. I know, hard to believe CNN sources are not always accurate.

I don't really think it's true either, I was on a conference call when the vaccine rollout was to begin in Florida from the state officials, and they had a pretty clear plan, 5 pilot hospitals getting 20,000 doses each, 2 in Orlando, 1 in Jacksonville, and 2 in Tampa, give it to the front-line workers first, broken into subcategories (COVID ICU staff, elder outpatient physicians, down to Med Students), and then to the elderly population, if left-over doses, before getting the entire state in the rollout (the pilot was part of the first however many doses shipped obviously, now the vaccine is readily available almost everywhere). So I think there's definitely plans in place, it just seems more of a "figure it out as a state" plan, which is probably why the Biden administration is claiming that.
01-21-2021, 08:31 PM
Lloyd Braun

Leaving it to the states is fine but it really seems like there is a lot of variability state to state. In Ohio you can only get the vaccine if you’re above 80 or have other serious health issues. Those people may not be the most mobile either. In other states it seems like anyone over 65 can get it. Hmmm
01-22-2021, 01:39 PM
XU_Lou

Quote:

Originally Posted by XU_Lou

I can't believe no one has commented on the news reported last week that "COVID-19 infections in US likely 8 times higher than reported, CDC says" (1) I guess I will, since there are several profound implications. If we assume that all of the "official" data is correct, this is what this study means:

#1) Officially, there are currently almost 14 million cases (2) in the U.S. This means that because of unreported cases - estimated to be 8 times the reported number - then roughly 112 million people in the U.S. has had Covid - that's roughly one-third of the population!

#2) As a result of the higher case numbers, the death rates for Covid are much lower. In fact, it's in the range of the seasonal flu. The following are flu stats from the CDC (3) for the last 10 years:

Flu Season / Cases / Deaths / Death Rate
2010-2011 / 21,000,000 / 37,000 / 0.18%
2011-2012 / 9,300,000 / 12,000 / 0.13%
2012-2013 / 34,000,000 / 43,000 / 0.13%
2013-2014 / 30,000,000 /38,000 / 0.13%
2014-2015 / 30,000,000 / 51,000 / 0.17%
2015-2016 / 24,000,000 / 23,000 / 0.10%
2016-2017 / 29,000,000 / 38,000 / 0.13%
2017-2018 / 45,000,000 / 61,000 / 0.14%
2018-2019 / 36,000,000 / 34,000 / 0.09%
2019-2020 / 38,000,000 / 22,000 / 0.06%

Assuming the 8X estimates, this would be the actual numbers for Covid thru 12/2:

Cases / Deaths / Death Rate
109,688,000 / 264,522 / 0.24%

For the life of the Pandemic, the 0.24% death rate is roughly double the seasonal flu. However, if we look at the last 6 months, and the last 3 months, the death rates are now actually in-line with the flu. The lower rates are the result of better treatments that doctors have learned over time. They also reflect the end of bad policies in which governors placed Covid patients inside nursing homes - an unmitigated disaster for those residents. Here is the more recent data:

Covid (6/1 thru 12/2): 95,359,488 / 164,006 / 0.17%

Covid (9/1 thru 12/2): 61,889,056 / 88,866 / 0.14%

So why are there so many more total deaths for Covid versus the flu? The biggest reason is that roughly 40% the population gets a flu vaccine - and roughly two-thirds of senior citizens get a vaccine (4). Thus, the most vulnerable are protected. Additionally, the vaccine acts to achieve herd immunity much earlier in the life of the virus.

#3) With roughly one-third of the population estimated to have already contracted Covid, this would mean that we are roughly half-way to achieving herd immunity (5). Most studies report that herd immunity is achieved when 60-70% of the population is infected. We are currently recording more than one million cases per week. This means that we are on pace to reach 28 million "official" cases in less than 12 weeks or so - if the current pace continues. If you apply the 8X figure from the CDC study, that means that roughly 224 million people will have contracted the virus by then - or roughly 68% of the population. It's going to be a race against time to get the vaccines out in order to make any type of meaningful impact. In other words, in my view, the virus will have mostly run its course before the vaccines can be administered in large numbers. In my opinion, this virus is going to peak in mid-January or so, and will be on the wane by late February - assuming that all of the "official" numbers and the 8X study is correct.

#4) Again, if we assume that the estimate that one-third of the population has already had Covid, it provides further proof that lockdowns and masks do not work. I'm sorry, but the virus is gonna virus, and there's very little we can practically do to control it. We are social beings....

1) https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...247457275.html

2) https://covidtracking.com/data/national

3) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

4) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/c...9estimates.htm

5) https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

Not to toot my own horn, but it looks like I was correct. Even Dr. Fauci agrees with me with his comment yesterday: "The good news about all of this is that we are seeing a plateau in the number of cases,"

No, it wasn't the lockdowns, it wasn't the masks, and it isn't the vaccines. It's natural herd immunity. By the end of the weekend roughly 60% of the population will have contracted Covid. Most studies report that herd immunity is achieved when 60-70% of the population is infected. In a few weeks this will be on the wane.

Trust the science, not the hysteria....
01-22-2021, 01:51 PM
bobbiemcgee

Quote:

Originally Posted by XU_Lou

Not to toot my own horn

toot toot 400k dead. 8300 in 48 hours.

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