Covid-19

I thought maybe me or someone else posted on the very low flu activity in Australia this past summer but I couldn’t find it. Now that we are near the normal time for the upswing to peak flu season in the US, it’s fair to take a look at flu activity. Turns out, there isn’t any. Number of positive tests in the United States the last week of December? 28.

I do find this pretty fascinating and there are several theories as to why. Certainly masks and distancing decreasing flu transmission is one good theory. Another is viral competition, with covid winning.

If the correlation is due to masks and distancing it will be interesting to see the long term effects this has on our behaviors during ensuing flu seasons, assuming we can get rid of covid. It will be much easier to have someone ill agree to wear a mask, but I wonder if this will have a long standing effect on the decrease in flu hospitalizations and deaths over the next several years.

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

I thought maybe me or someone else posted on the very low flu activity in Australia this past summer but I couldn’t find it. Now that we are near the normal time for the upswing to peak flu season in the US, it’s fair to take a look at flu activity. Turns out, there isn’t any. Number of positive tests in the United States the last week of December? 28.

I do find this pretty fascinating and there are several theories as to why. Certainly masks and distancing decreasing flu transmission is one good theory. Another is viral competition, with covid winning.

If the correlation is due to masks and distancing it will be interesting to see the long term effects this has on our behaviors during ensuing flu seasons, assuming we can get rid of covid. It will be much easier to have someone ill agree to wear a mask, but I wonder if this will have a long standing effect on the decrease in flu hospitalizations and deaths over the next several years.

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Interesting, thanks.

Is any of it perhaps people who have the flu exhibiting symptoms and staying home thinking it is COVID and just not getting tested for either? Or do we assume most people are going to get tested to confirm if symptoms they are having is due to Flu or COVID?

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

I thought maybe me or someone else posted on the very low flu activity in Australia this past summer but I couldn’t find it. Now that we are near the normal time for the upswing to peak flu season in the US, it’s fair to take a look at flu activity. Turns out, there isn’t any. Number of positive tests in the United States the last week of December? 28.

I do find this pretty fascinating and there are several theories as to why. Certainly masks and distancing decreasing flu transmission is one good theory. Another is viral competition, with covid winning.

If the correlation is due to masks and distancing it will be interesting to see the long term effects this has on our behaviors during ensuing flu seasons, assuming we can get rid of covid. It will be much easier to have someone ill agree to wear a mask, but I wonder if this will have a long standing effect on the decrease in flu hospitalizations and deaths over the next several years.

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There’s a third theory that the flu is being identified as COVID. The NPI theory falls apart when recognizing that they haven’t stopped COVID, how would they stop the flu? Plus it’s been established that masks are ineffective against the flu.

I support the competing virus theory. Would you believe I heard about that 5 months ago from a data scientist on Twitter?

Both good questions with a “TBD” answer. I think it’s just not prevalent at this time. There are still many flu tests being run and they are negative.

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

There’s a third theory that the flu is being identified as COVID.

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This could only be true if not testing right? And if not testing it isn't being counted in the COVID numbers right? So this seems implausible.

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

There’s a third theory that the flu is being identified as COVID. The NPI theory falls apart when recognizing that they haven’t stopped COVID, how would they stop the flu? Plus it’s been established that masks are ineffective against the flu.

I support the competing virus theory. Would you believe I heard about that 5 months ago from a data scientist on Twitter?

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The third theory is ridiculous, sorry. I’m not seeing any positive flu tests in a sample size that is not large (couple hundred). I think it’s a combination of the two- mitigating measures (not just masks) and competing viruses. Countries in the Southern Hemisphere that didn’t have strict measures also saw a drastic decline in flu, but not quite as much as those with stricter measures. I feel like we’ve gone in circles on masks but there is data that suggests decrease in transmission for flu too, though in this case that is unlikely the main reason for decline.

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Originally Posted by noteggs

Now I know why people said lockdowns were a bad idea or the language will change after the election, please see Governor Cuomo’s comments at his SOTS. “We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy.” Sounded a lot like what Trump tried to say. Hate to give Trump any credit these days, but on this he was right.

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Now Chicago Mayor Lori "Lockdown" Lightfoot says that it's time for businesses to reopen. Also, Gov Northam of VA said that schools should reopen. Again, the timing of all this is quite interesting. Is there really any doubt that all of this was/is political?

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

The third theory is ridiculous, sorry. I’m not seeing any positive flu tests in a sample size that is not large (couple hundred). I think it’s a combination of the two- mitigating measures (not just masks) and competing viruses. Countries in the Southern Hemisphere that didn’t have strict measures also saw a drastic decline in flu, but not quite as much as those with stricter measures. I feel like we’ve gone in circles on masks but there is data that suggests decrease in transmission for flu too, though in this case that is unlikely the main reason for decline.

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No need to apologize - I didn’t say I supported it. But in the name of fair scientific questioning, is it possible that a PCR test run at sufficiently high amplification cycles could detect DNA that is indicative of COVID RNA? As to masks and the flu, (we haven’t discussed that), there are numerous CRTs that show they don’t help stop flu transmission, and the CDC has recommended against wearing them for flu.

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Originally Posted by XU_Lou

Now Chicago Mayor Lori "Lockdown" Lightfoot says that it's time for businesses to reopen. Also, Gov Northam of VA said that schools should reopen. Again, the timing of all this is quite interesting. Is there really any doubt that all of this was/is political?

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Given that the ineffectiveness and detrimental effects of lockdowns have been evident since May, were renounced by then CDC this past summer, and the CDC - and even Fauci - said kids should be in school back in September, it’s a fair question. Either it’s as Lou suggests, or these politicians were disregarding facts to prolong their political power trip.

Yeah there is no doubt there was a ton of political BS behind the shutdowns. Anyone with a brain realized that months ago. Because Trump is an asshole and the dems wanted control back they had to find a way to get everyone to turn on Trump. What better way then to shut everything down and put a dent in his economy? Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what was going on.