I have read 60% too for some diseases. But I think they key is it depends on how contagious the disease is and as we know COVID-19 seems to be up there in the highly contagious category.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
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I have read 60% too for some diseases. But I think they key is it depends on how contagious the disease is and as we know COVID-19 seems to be up there in the highly contagious category.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
It may have been the same doctor who said he’s been at it for several decades, and this is the most transmissible virus he has ever seen. He’s one guy, and who knows what his agenda is, but you have to take note of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
The direct quote in the article was accurate. The headline of "CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating" is what both Trump and Redfield came out and STRONGLY said was an incorrect reading of the statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
The headline was a false indirect quote.
So they're both right?
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Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
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Originally Posted by boozehound
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Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
Okay, where are you getting the zero evidence of immunity from? Based on what I've heard, there is a mountain of evidence saying that people that have had it are immune.
It's a virus. It's not a bacteria. As I understand it, once you've had any virus, the chances of getting the exact same strand of it again are infinitesimal. If that isn't the case, then any sort of a vaccine would be impossible. Simply put, I believe the reasons vaccines work is because they expose you to a non-harmful virus that they created that is similar to the virus to where your immune system fights it off and then makes you immune to it, but at the same time doesn't harm you when you're exposed to it. Now, it could mutate into different strands and become seasonal the way the flu does, but as I understand it every time you get the flu you get a different strand of it.
I know they say that there have been reinfections, but haven't they also said that since the testing was so new, and that since the number of reinfections are relatively very small, that there was a far greater chance of there being an issue with the tests indicating false positives or false negatives than there was with people actually being reinfected??
There are antibodies tests, are there not?? What are they testing for if there are no antibodies that can make people immune from the virus?? Based on the fact that those types of tests exists must indicate that immunity for those who get infected but get over it is highly probable, does it not??
Just happened to be at the top of my newsfeed. I admittedly haven’t read past the headline, but still....
https://apple.news/ALUeO2VrdS4m7y2Q2461bag
What Immunity to COVID-19 Really Means
Here is an analysis from Scientific American. The upshot is that antibodies are not necessarily a 1:1 relationship to immunity, and even if they are the duration of said immunity can vary widely.
Hopefully this is like Chicken Pox and one infection yields lifetime immunity, but it's not a guarantee.
I'm not a medical professional so hopefully someone who is can provide further context (or correct me if I'm wrong).
Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:
Model Projection of new Cases per Day (Mitigated) 2,000 on April 17. (Projected peak Today 4/22 shows 1,875 per OSU model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 577 (68 Probable/Assumed cases today.)
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 Monday with 56 probable/assumed- A LOT from the Marion County prison
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,960 (up only 78 from yesterday) since reporting began over a month ago. Where are the Marion County cases?
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 900 since reporting began a month ago (up 20 from yesterday). Where are the Marion County cases??
New Deaths today: 46 to 656 total (includes 38 presumed)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million
Welp. For all of those wondering, all that incredible testing at Marion yielded more cases reported, but apparently no big run on hospitalizations or ICU's.
Models still truly "fake news". This is becoming ludicrous day by day.
I'll say this one more time. The testing posture is a red herring. Even if you are tested, it is merely a snapshot in time. You may be negative today when you're tested and positive tomorrow when you aren't so what has been accomplished? You may not even show or feel symptoms so you'd never think to get tested again. Are we now going to require testing every individual every day, every hour because you touched a doorknob? Totally unrealistic and what is the endgame? How do you get to the end? Yeah, let's have roving teams of jackbooted thugs roaming stands at baseball games to test all the attendees, then throwing all the ones who test positive in a concentration camp lockdown for 14 days. That's it!!!
Or, if with other diseases, if you feel sick you stay home. If you start feeling worse, you go to an insta clinic or get an appointment with your doc for treatment? 98% at least of people who follow this route with other diseases are fine, and you aren't shutting the country down. Testing Posture is a cute way for those who want to keep the thumb on society to never let that thumb off. Infinite Perpetual Testing Forever!!
https://nypost.com/video/dr-mike-say...firm-immunity/Quote:
Originally Posted by xubrew
Here is a video of one doc who breaks it down pretty good.
From the article you posted:Quote:
Originally Posted by xubrew
He also noted that it was unclear whether testing positive for antibodies meant a person had achieved immunity.
“Moving forward until those studies are done we won’t know what it means for someone to be antibody-positive,” he said.
Do you have any links to anything you've read to suggest there is mountains of evidence that once you've had it you are immune? I have not seen one single thing state that. There is hope of that for sure like I have said but if so for how long? No one knows.
Debbie downer! You say it "continues to be false" with but provide no basis! I provided a very good basis in post #1380 for why herd immunity can end this pandemic, at least until we have a vaccine. I'll concede we don't know, but smart money is that this is similar to other coronavirus outbreaks. No?Quote:
Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
What other coronavirus outbreaks is thisreminding you of? I don’t think the smart money is anywhere with respect to Covid-19 - how could it be?Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
SARS and MERS. Both resulted in human immunity for several years.Quote:
Originally Posted by AviatorX
I am certainly far from an expert, but I don't believe anything close to herd immunity was achieved for SARS (roughly 8,000 confirmed cases globally) or MERS (roughly 3,000 confirmed cases globally), so not really sure how that's instructive here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
I hope I am way off base, but I don't think anyone thinks the decline of those viruses had anything to do with herd immunity.
My understanding is the medical community was pretty close on a SARS vaccine, but it was never mass produced because there was no need. Hopefully that is encouraging.
We don’t see much sunshine in Cleveland from October to May and I am definitely all for injecting sunshine directly into my veins. He can keep the bleach inhaler however.
IÂ’m so confused. I didnÂ’t say that. I thought I was crazy for a minute and went back and read my posts. Sure enough, I didnÂ’t say that.Quote:
Originally Posted by AviatorX
What I said in the post you quoted and in post 1380 is that SARS and MERS have resulted in a human immune response that has lasted for several years. They are Coronaviruses like COVID-19. Therefore the default assumption is that COVID-19 will have a similar result. Yes, we wonÂ’t know for sure for years, but there is a much stronger reason to believe it will last years than weeks. ThatÂ’s great if it happens - why do you people insist on arguing for the worst case? I donÂ’t get it.
What do you mean by 'You People'
Sarcasm font
There’s a pretty obvious implication we were discussing the potential for herd immunity based on your comment in post #1410. I’m not arguing for or against anything, just was a bit caught off guard when I read your post that the smart money was on this being similar to other coronavirus outbreaks because it seems pretty obvious we’re in uncharted territory at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
I certainly hope you are right, but it feels like a stretch to say the default assumption is this will have a similar result to SARS or MERS considering the global impact is already magnitudes worse.
The smart money isn’t anywhere in this situation. How could it be? That’s why it’s so daunting.
Just for the heck of it, here's another comparison with Sweden.
Ohio 14,694 cases 656 deaths (4.5% death rate of identified cases)
Sweden 16,755 cases 2,021 deaths (12.1% death rate of identified cases0
Perhaps some of the measures Ohio has employed have, at least, held the death rate down.
Here and in Europe, nursing homes are the places not to be.
Liberal intellectuals ?Quote:
Originally Posted by MADXSTER
You are literally the only one discussing this the last several posts who is assuming something. No one else is saying anything other than we don’t know, experts don’t know, no one knows. You are guessing and hoping and then getting mad and stating we are arguing for the worst case when we aren’t arguing for anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
For the record I think you may be going crazy with this latest post.
I don’t think it’s nursing homes are where you don’t want to be as much as it’s nursing homes have those most susceptible and will obviously have a population greatly effected.Quote:
Originally Posted by paulxu
True of course. But also not good for the staffs.
This didn't take long.
https://www.daggler.com/live/uploads...559vgk564.jpeg
Saw this posted on a different board. So far, C-19 is LITERALLY a life saver in the United States:
Total US deaths were down ~15% in Week 14 of 2020 vs. Week 14 of 2019. Continuing the weekly trend since early March
Total US Deaths - Week 14
2020: 49,292
2019: 56,595
Total US Deaths - Week 14 under 18 (over a 55% drop in fatalities)
2020: 287
2019: 618
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
No crap. No one is driving. Traffic deaths should be WAY down.
Speaking of which, I think some insurance companies (who are saving literally billions) will be refunding some premiums on car insurance.
Ok, folks. This “testing” thing has gone from Red Herring to Red Flag!!
And carefully putting my Tin Foil Hat on here, but DeWine, Husted and their “Doc of the Day” today (not Acton) will now implement Surveillance Testing on a random basis to check people. Holy Iish!!! This is tantamount to Searching someone’s property without a Search Warrant and equals these jackbooted random traffic stops. Total Bullshit.
The overreach is now becoming a huge infringement on Citizens individual freedoms. It’s entering insanity.
This has to stop. And so do these daily “update press conferences”. They’ve become infomercials and look at me moments for a bunch of politicians.
What exactly does this entail?Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
I assume that you are including Trump's bizarre daily shitshow in the ones that have to stop.Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:
Model Projection of new Cases per Day (Mitigated) 2,000 on April 17. (Projected peak Today 4/22 shows 1,850 per OSU model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 475 - Down by 113 from yesterday (31 Probable/Assumed cases today.)
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 Monday with 56 probable/assumed- A LOT from the Marion County prison
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 3,053 (up only 93 from yesterday) since reporting began over a month ago. Where are the Marion County cases?
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 920 since reporting began a month ago (up 20 from yesterday). Where are the Marion County cases??
New Deaths today: 34 to 690 total (includes 41 presumed)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million
Still.....All that incredible testing at Marion yielded a short blob of more cases reported, but apparently no big run on hospitalizations or ICU's.
Models still truly "fake news". Still followed by DeWine.
And today's big news out of the Presser is that we will soon have "Surveillance Testing"!! Wow. Big Brother is really watching over us now!!! Yaaaay!
Yeah. MORE TESTING!! Yea Baby!!!
Just what I said. In DeWine's presser today they will soon invoke random (yes actually called) Surveillance Testing to just check on people who may or may not have the virus. I have no idea where and when it will be done, but I have the vision of Big Brother with a device and swabs in his hands outside a grocery or hardware store swabbing people and taking their temperature as they enter the store. If they have a slight fever, they're sent away.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
Very 1984, don't ya think?
I wouldn't mind being tested. (Full disclosure...I also favor vaccinations of children).
If I was found to have it, I could self-quarantine and hopefully spare my family.
Also, I hope if an Ohio highway patrol pulls over a weaving car, he is allowed to administer a breathalizer. If he blows a bad number, hopefully they don't let him get back behind the wheel an head on down the road.
@MOR - I'm pretty puzzled by your testing arguments. Seems like the only way to shrink/prove mortality rates and bring consumers confidence to get back to business.
What I think is.........they need to do a much better job at the presser. This should not just be left to what you or anyone else envisions. If you say “Surveillance Testing”, you then explain that the hell that means!Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
I drove past my barber today out of curiosity to see if they were a shop that actually opened. The doors were wide open on a beautiful day, but I saw nobody inside. The wife got the clippers out and cleaned me up a couple days ago, so I’ll hold off a bit. I really don’t mind starting to open up, if done wisely. Our idiot Governor started with the LAST places that should open (massage and tattoo parlors, hair salons, bowling alleys...really?), and left the others closed. I feel fine about going to the grocery store (or Total Wine, of course). I do NOT want to spend an hour or two getting touched by a stranger who touches other strangers all day long. WTF? How about a quick in and out at Bed, Bath & Beyond or Barnes and Noble for some downtime reading?
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Originally Posted by Caf
THIS I agree with! The problem is what is their testing capacity? We hoped for the best case scenario, it seems, and didn’t prepare for anything less than that. Bad plan.....
I would LOVE to be tested! I think I just may have had it. I’d love to give plasma if it could help somebody else.
Yes this is quite logical and necessary.Quote:
Originally Posted by Caf
Last time I mentioned testing MOR said it was only to make their faulty models look better. There’s an apparent lack of trust with the Ohio government, yet a strange trust in the feds.
There are more than enough volunteers from the general public to do a large sample of swabs. Nobody will be forced to do a swab for the purpose of gaining data.
Coming soon...roadside testing in Dana's parking lot.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ng-booths.html
This rebuttal is directed at nobody. And by the way, I’m not trusting ANY government entity on this. Where did I ever say anything about trust in the Federal government more than the state? I’ve said numerous times I was in favor of DeWine’s moves- until about a week ago.
Tell me what testing has proven?? Other than jacking up the case reporting count in Marion & Pickaway- where prisons are- what has it ultimately told us? What? No one still has explained to me why, after all those positives found in the testing, the hospitalizations and ICU admits haven’t gone up in anywhere near the levels of the case increase. The testing has yielded empty numbers that mean nothing other than a bunch of people caught a virus. WOW!! Millions of people catch a cold or flu virus every year and thousands of people die from those diseases, so tell me something new. Now they want to “Surveillance Test”. I guess all y’all are fine with Big Brother taking over your life more. Not me.
And no one has answered the question that, hey, you get tested. You’re negative. The next day you touch a dirty doorknob and all of a sudden the virus is in your body, but like many, you get no symptoms you wouldn't get tested again, but if you got forced tested again, you’re positive. So what was the purpose of Test 1, or are we just gonna buy into constant never-ending testing which means, Mr. Medical man at your grocery store door?. Oooooooookkkk. One way of the other I suppose you could infect people but that is just like you giving them your cold or flu now.
So my ultimate question is: What is the endgame? When does this testing deal end? I test negative but do I have to go back and have a test every day? Every other day? Every week? It will never end with a ridiculous infringement on our freedom. Of course medical people in their cautious nature scream “Test” every hour, but sorry. You can’t wrap society in a bubble like that and think you can prevent sickness.
We went for years without a flu vaccine. The whole world didn’t die despite there being no “Flu Test”. Now we have a flu vaccine that works....sort of, but thousands of people still die from it, and hey. I’m not anti-vax! I get a flu shot that I hope works.
So, final point. IMO This Testing argument is just another way for government to keep its citizens under it’s thumb of control, and what happens to medical privacy laws?? Stop justifying the society shutdown on the need for Testing. Open life back up with precautionary actions (Masks, distancing) until a vaccine or other worthy mitigating treatment is found, but this Test, Test, Test shouting is ponderous and oppressive.
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Originally Posted by Masterofreality
Couldn’t agree more. They moved the goal posts after it turned out their models were insanely wrong. This is a way to justify their past moves. They’re too scared to make the correct decision in opening things back up. Look at how the media and politicians (Trump included about Georgia) speak with disdain about Georgia opening up, Jacksonville opening beaches, San Diego opening beaches, Tennessee, etc.
What’s the new thing they want us to do too? The tracing so they can follow us.
"But the beaches?!?!"
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04...ys-conductors/
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But conductors say the subway has become a homeless shelter and social distancing is nearly impossible.
Cell phone video shows subway cars lined with people passed out, using shoes as pillows, not wearing masks, with trash piled in shopping carts.
“There is an astronomical amount of homeless people now in the subway,” MTA train conductor Tramell Thompson said. “The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is now the Metropolitan Transmission Authority. They are transporting this virus.”
Having a discussion about all this with family members who are doctors, caused me to look up a couple of things.
And finding this just boggled my feeble brain.
Seoul Korea's population is larger than New York City, and twice as dense.
Deaths from the virus so far in NYC: 16,000 +
Deaths from the virus so far in ALL of Korea: 240
Crazy times.
Edit: actually, some US cities ought to study Korea, and try exactly whatever it is they did so successfully.