Sounds great. We need haircuts, enjoy bowling, and a tattoo that says "I ain't a pussy" would look great on my Aunt. We'd be right down as soon as the stay at home order is lifted.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
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Sounds great. We need haircuts, enjoy bowling, and a tattoo that says "I ain't a pussy" would look great on my Aunt. We'd be right down as soon as the stay at home order is lifted.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
Birx sez it will be fine as long as they maintain "social distancing". Your barber, masseuse and tattoo guy need to stay 6 feet away from you. You'll need Edward Scissorhands with hedge clippers.
It’s like the CDC dropped in and gave him a list of the order in which things could open.......and he started reading from the wrong end!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
Why not retail where you are in and out with minimal and brief contact? This seems insane to me! I’d like to hear the reasoning.
Reasoning? That's an outrageous request!
Explain to me how an entire country can have "herd immunity" when there is no evidence that getting it creates any immunity at all?Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
There is hope that there is some immunity created, maybe 3 months? 6? 12? lifetime? But there is nothing to this point to show there is any immunity.
Edit:
It's a bold claim to make that the country will have herd immunity within weeks when the article finishes by saying this:
"Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Reinfections of coronavirus have been reported."
Both Trump and the CDC director quoted in this article absolutely blasted the Washington Post for what the author of that article inferred from the CDC director's quote. It was the very first thing addressed in today's press briefing.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
Fauci sez this would be a bad idea. A Barber or Masseuse shedding the virus would surely pass it on imho. So I guess if you hell bent on getting sick, go ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
And now up here in Callahooga County comes the first causality in the medical community as to what happens when faulty models are trusted, followed for action, and taken as Bible resulting in panic & overreation: (I hope Lloyd doesn’t work for them)
University Hospitals is laying off 400 workers who are not directly related to patient care. At the same time, they are closing 3 temporary emergency facilities that they were directed to erect to deal with the flood and onslaught of corona virus patients- because there weren’t any.
Now, call me a Tin Foil Hat, but...these hospitals were directed to gear up for this onslaught. So they did, now..where did the money to “gear up” come from? Welp, *maybe* from their normal operating budgets that would normally pay for, say, 400 staff members? Add to that this statement from the Hospital that their revenues are way down “due to the executive order from Gov. Mike DeWine postponing all non-essential surgeries and procedures.” Uh remember why DeWine did that? So hospitals would have room for the onslaught. Um, yeah.
See? Garbage in, and when the trash isn’t taken out, it spoils and infects otherwise healthy things.
Thanks “leaders” for the fear mongering. Nicely done.
Even if nothing else is done with opening other businesses, allowing elective surgeries and procedures to resume (subject to immediate cancellation if the situation changes and more hospital space is needed for COVID) seems like an easy, low-risk decision.Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
As a general statement (there are a few exceptions) elective surgeries/procedures/office visits etc were cancelled for infection control rather than hospital bed space. If these procedures are being done you are bringing healthy people into hospitals that have risk for transmission. Conversely you are bringing asymptomatic people that have the virus (TBD if this transmits the virus or not but you have to assume they do) potentially shedding it to others. It was always known this was the likely outcome when elective procedures etc were to be on hold. That is a massive amount of money, way more than the cost to “gear up.”
I could go back several pages of posts but that was the reason I asked Dr. Crawford if he had to lay off/furlough employees since there is a reasonable amount of non-emergent dermatologic care as in most any specialty.
One thing however that was not expected from what I gather in talks with administration is the lack of visits to urgent cares and ERs. People are staying home and visits to Urgent Cares and ERs are WAY down. People are thinking twice about going there to avoid exposure. So while we can talk about how insurance rates are going to skyrocket, nobody is discussing the massive amount of claims that haven’t been filed with insurances because volumes are very low. I will be curious to see this quarter’s revenues for the major insurers. But if hospitals are losing money because they don’t have business, where does all the money go that we are paying our insurers? Food for thought....
It will be interesting to see, but I would expect that when the next policy renewal period comes up, like most insurance plans, the rates will be adjusted based upon the facts in each area. I would submit that the rates may actually decline based upon the lack of payout and the companies have a good cash supply for future payouts, like when auto insurance rates decline in areas where the payout is low, or it may just balance out where rates don't change.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
I prefer to be optimistic in this case.
Just doing my part to contribute to herd immunity and prevent socio-economic collapse. You’re welcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:
Model Projection of new Cases per Day (Mitigated) 2,000 on April 17. (Projected peak Today 4/22 shows 1,900 per OSU model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 392 33 Probable/Assumed cases today.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 Monday with 56 probable/assumed- A LOT from the Marion County prison
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,882 (up only 103 from yesterday) since reporting began over a month ago. Where are the Marion County cases?
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 880 since reporting began a month ago (up 42from yesterday)
New Deaths today: 53 to 610 total.
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million
Note: Marion County has the highest total of cases of any Ohio County- 2137 of which 2104 are from the Marion State Prison, not the general population. Marion County total only increased by 5 cases today so it appears that the blob of cases from the prison has gone. The prison cases were most assuredly NOT factored in to the original models that DeWine has been touting to shut the state down.
So, in summary, the blob of cases that occurred in Marion County did not result in a huge spike in hospitalizations or ICU admits. There were only 392 new cases statewide which is pretty much back to the Pre Marion prison numbers vs a model projection of 1,900 for this date. Amazingly in the face of data to the contrary, the model of cases per day actually increased from w few days ago. DeWine continues to be in bed with Acton and refuses to move off of his rigid timetable with no questioning of the blantantly wrong numbers on the models, meanwhile the economy dies in his state. Incredible.
They reported this week that unemployment is at 20% and we have another two weeks of this shit. It also seems like Dewine hasn’t been very clear on his reopening plan and hasn’t exactly explained the phases. It appears to me like he is wholly unprepared to give that plan bc he expected he could just keep us lockdown for longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
The "herd immunity" that no one has any idea if it even exists or will exist?Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Agreed. I think it also makes sense to start to re-open certain places / things in a careful manner. As long as we can make sure three things happen to the greatest extent possible:Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
(1) Social Distancing when and where appropriate
(2) Awareness and precautions (frequent hand washing, not touching face, etc.)
(3) Testing and contact tracing confirmed cases
The biggest barrier right now remains our failure to have widespread rapid testing, IMO. That would be a game changer in our efforts to combat this while returning to some level of normalcy.
Why wouldn’t herd immunity exist?Quote:
Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
Because we haven't established that people have immunity for any significant amount of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Exactly. There is absolutely zero evidence that people who get COVID-19 have any immunity to it after they have recovered. Like I said in my post previously there is hope people who get it build up some immunity. For how long? 3 months? 6months? 12 months? Lifetime? We have no idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Also I have heard even if you do get some immunity it may depend on the severity of you symptoms as to how much if any immunity you built up.
But again there have already been some reports that people who have already had, got it again. So who knows?
That is why it is so flawed when people say I just want to get it and be done and have my immunity.
Man you guys are "glass half-empty" kind of people!Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
Just because immunity wears off doesn't mean herd immunity can't be achieved. Herd immunity means the disease can no longer be a pandemic with exponential growth. It doesn't mean it's gone forever. The longer the body's immunity lasts, the more effective the herd immunity, just like the more effective the vaccine. Similarly, the most contagious viruses (highest Ro) will require the greatest % of the population with antibodies to achieve herd immunity. It's not an all or none, butALL viruses result in herd immunity, in some form.
I'll give you that yes, we don't know how long immunity will last, but since COVID-19 is a coronavirus, is likely to act like other coronaviruses (SARS, MERS), where the bodies immune response has shown to last at least several years. If that were the case, we'll very likely have a vaccine. I'm going to the bank with that.
This is a great example of MSM sensationalism. I saw this play out a few days ago on one of the MSM news programs. The network teaser is something like, "People testing positive for COVID-19 a second time" is the network news teaser. Then when you get the full story, it's someone being tested periodically during recovery who test negative, maybe multiple times, then has another positive test. This is expected because:Quote:
Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
1) The virus will remain in one's body at varying levels during recovery, and the test may or may not pick it up.
2) The test has a high false negative rate.
This is why a series of negative tests is required over a period of time to release someone from the hospital.The news won't mention these facts, and even if they did, many people don't understand the uncertainty in any analytical testing method. Hence the misinformation spreads.
There are some interesting deets in this article that shed some light in the lack of testing.
Basically there have been incompetent people in positions that are making decisions about public health. This is still the most pressing need in the community especially as we start lifting sanctions. Where is the antibody test we heard about a few weeks ago? Well, it turns out it has been faulty, too, just like the early PCR tests.
And right on cue comes Lib Lloyd waiting to pounce on some non-story that is put out there by an extremely Biased source. How do you know this guy is incompentent? Is Fauci incompetent too? And Maybe Brian Harrison has proven, good organizational skills? Like there aren't plenty of medical people on this task force already?Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
One line in the story exposes the bias against the US administration- "Like many US Officials underestimated the severity..." Uh, kinda like the WHO "underestimated the severity" in January? Weren't "US Officials" initially looking to an organization like the WHO to provide important information about this thing? Maybe US Intel had other info, maybe not, but to just blatantly narrowly blame the administration is garbage reporting, and just another effort at "Gotcha!! Why aren't all of the entities involved that "underestimated the severity" called out?
Instead of recklessly blaming politicians, many of whom are trying to desperately find anything that can control this issue- including following some routes that may be dead ends in a rush to get to a better place, just concentrate on getting the public the drugs, vaccines, and other items to put this in the rearview mirror.
Finally Lloyd. Testing or not. Where the hell are all the hospitalizations that were predicted in this state? So there was plenty of testing at Marion, which resulted in a spike of over 2000 cases reported, yet there hasn't been a corresponding huge spike in hospitalizations and ICU admits.
Yeah, precautions are appropriate, like masks and distancing, but this screaming for "TESTING" is increasingly becoming a red herring.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
These are, in my opinion, the kinds of things that happen more often when you have a amateur Government led by an individual with a deeply flawed management style.
Take Alex Azar for example: It looks pretty likely at this point, based on confirmation from multiple sources, that he underestimated risk and essentially mis-represented the preparedness of his organization to Trump. While you can't blame Trump for Azar misleading him, you can blame him for creating an environment where his top advisers only share news that he wants to hear. I think it seems pretty clear at this point that it was this dynamic that led to the ouster of people like James Mattis and John Kelly - they consistently voiced their opinions on matters within their purview that didn't align with what Trump wanted to hear. Anybody who has worked in an organization that has operated this way can see what the pitfalls are. It works OK, until it doesn't. Then it gets very bad.
It's amazing to me how some people will defend anything this organization does. It's also funny how the narrative shifts as the situation evolves (or devolves as is often the case with Trump). For example: initially people acknowledged the flaws in Trump's leadership style, but it was OK because he was smart enough to appoint people like Mattis and Kelly to key positions. Then he forced them out and the narrative had to change. Now there is nothing wrong with Trump's leadership style at all, and all these people are totally qualified.
Sounds like it's time for some posts to move to the Politics thread.
Post of the year. You should read back through your comments in this thread. You can start with the one where you called a guy 'lib Lloyd' for posting an article that was critical of your deity and work backward from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
Wow... “Lib Lloyd”? I kinda like it. I know someone else who likes to tweet out alliterations and I imagine that would be in the short list of nick names he would have for me if given the opportunity.
I wasn’t aware Reuters was “extremely biased” as you say. Guess I should be reading more credible news? The article actually gives some kudos to Pence, as things seemed to get on track when he took over. I guess that’s bullshit too?
Testing is critical if we want to get back to normalcy. It’s not a red herring, it’s what is needed to give clearance for someone to work, and peace of mind to give the general public confidence. You do realize you can’t wave a magic wand on thy right? The economy doesn’t go back to normal with lifted sanctions, people will still avoid going out.
You can continue to defend this administration, but for someone who doesn’t like settling for mediocre leaders I do find your defense of this administration somewhat contradictory. Unless you hold the coach of Xavier basketball to a higher standard than the President.
Testing has now become the buzzword for keeping society on lockdown. And no answer from the medical expert as to where the hospitalizations are and ICU admits after all of that testing at Marion? In a prison where things are not sanitary, in much closer quarters than normal society?Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
Yeah, just keep blowing that testing siren, when even many of the leading medical people in this state and nation say there is no need for it for most people, but the media does to keep this thing alive to hold something over the Administration's head.
Screw that. Keep using precautions, keep doing research, and get a vaccine. And if you can't see the bias in that report, if not from Reuters, which is London based entity then that particular reporter, then I don't know what to tell you.
I would rate this post as Fair. :biggrin:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
Ha! What is political about continually pointing out the flaws in the models that a Republican Governor is using to defend his power to lock down an entire state? That is what I've been doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
And sure. Move the last few posts today of Lloyd's, yours, and mine all over to the politics thread. I'm fine with it.
The prison ICU and hospitalization rate is unknown because it is new data. The course of illness is weeks, and I’m pretty sure that several people tested in the prison that tested positive did not have symptoms. Which again gives credence to a few things, most notably that the mortality rate is much lower that initially thought, and its transmissibility is possibly higher than initially thought. Prisons are close quarters but so is every household in America, and many many offices, restaurants etc.
I think I am going to trust the medical experts and the politicians taking the advice of the medical experts seriously.
It's frightening that there is not a unified response from the federal level and no plans to work on one. That's what happens when the President wants the title, but not the actual job responsibilities.
The White House presented a very detailed 3-Phase plan for opening back up. With benchmarks to advance to each phase and then what would be happening within that phase. I have no clue what you’re talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs. Garrett
Trump 6:15pm: "Dr. Redfield was misquoted."Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs. Garrett
Dr. Redfield 6:17 pm: "I was not misquoted"
This is what we're dealing with.
If one questions the value of a good testing situation, I would recommend this short read;
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6194c7be8ce80
Here's an important quote from that article:
“The idea of anybody getting [tested] easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a congressional committee last month. “That is a failing. Let’s admit it.”
More comprehensive testing early on in the pandemic might have allowed countries to avoid imposing paralyzing restrictions on social and economic activity. South Korea’s aggressive testing and contact-tracing program, for example, helped it avoid a nationwide lockdown.
I don't think any of them should be moved. I think being critical of the government's response to this is completely fair game, as long as it doesn't devolve into non-specific political arguing it should stay here. The government's response to this (both state and local) is a central part of the issue and directly related to the topic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
This 3 phase plan is perfect:Quote:
Originally Posted by XU '11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO5sxLapAts
Nice post and I’ll add my two cents. Questioning the model or data gathering is essential in medicine. Most people in the medical profession are taught (early) to question the data based off “clinical design, methodology, objective, results, conclusion and other.” Heck, just ask “GIMMFD” in medical school during his journal clubs. Is it a reputable study or something you take with a grain of salt. To your point, these are the key factors determining how we proceed and a ton of questions should be asked especially what’s happening today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
Changing the way the results were gathered from CDC kind of raised my antenna. A couple of examples:
The total deaths reported to the public do not only include deaths caused by COVID-19, but all deaths among patients who have tested positive for the virus regardless of causation. Other words, if someone tests positive for COVID-19 and days later dies for another reason, that death is counted. Please no DC conversations from others, just talking about the daily cases and death totals flashing on my TV screen.
The new CDC guidelines by expanding the death definition are now requiring all states to report presumptive positive and probable cases. So if a patient showed signs and symptoms of Covid a month ago and never tested, but died they can be reported as Covid related. Obviously Ohio has done this a week ago or so when we saw a few daily spike in deaths.
Not to say these changes are necessarily wrong and may help further research, but it does seem like the CDC is dumpster diving to find these cases.
This is priceless.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee
We are dealing with the Gov of Georgia. He’s capable of contradicting himself. It’s a gift.
I’ve heard from an epidemiologist this herd immunity, if it arises for some period of time, only occurs when 85-90% of the population has been exposed. That may help, but it’s not the answer. Science will be the answer. I don’t think our Governor can spell science.
For the record, I don’t hate him opening up as much as I hate him opening the WORST possible businesses FIRST.
Hospitals are not requiring multiple negative tests for discharge. Not even one negative.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
Also yes it could be a reactivation or resurgence of COVID-19 happening in people who seem to have "had it twice" and not truly be them contracting it again. But again at this point it is unknown. So this idea that we all just need to get it and we will be good continues to be false.