Covid-19

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Originally Posted by xu82

That’s awesome!

My wife has a guy on her team who lives in Boston. It took 2 weeks for him to get tested....only to come back “inconclusive”. Tested a couple days later, same result. I didn’t realize that was an option. I clearly don’t know much about this. Anyway, he seems to be getting better, but slowly.

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“Inconclusive“ most likely means there was an error in collection, transport, or processing with the assumption the test ran was the standard PCR test. Once the patient is swabbed the specimen is sent to the lab frozen. If it arrives out of temp the lab could run the test, and if it is negative cannot give a true negative result. If it’s positive, it is likely positive however.

False positives occur with someone who has cleared the virus but no longer active in disease. False negatives occur with poor swab, transport error, lab error.

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

“Inconclusive“ most likely means there was an error in collection, transport, or processing with the assumption the test ran was the standard PCR test. Once the patient is swabbed the specimen is sent to the lab frozen. If it arrives out of temp the lab could run the test, and if it is negative cannot give a true negative result. If it’s positive, it is likely positive however.

False positives occur with someone who has cleared the virus but no longer active in disease. False negatives occur with poor swab, transport error, lab error.

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Two inconclusive in a row sounds like they need to get better at the testing?

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Originally Posted by xu82

Two inconclusive in a row sounds like they need to get better at the testing?

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Perhaps. Or, more likely, they used the Roche machine to run the test- which has had errors due to improper cartridge coding or something along those lines. It was unable to determine the result and thus, “inconclusive” due to a processing error. However I have seen “inconclusive” be reported due to a frozen specimen arriving thawed. Typically the test isn’t completed but some COVID tests have been to prevent the patient from possibly exposing more people during the re-collection.

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Originally Posted by kmcrawfo

Where does your co-worker live? Have they still not been tested? I have had zero problems getting anyone tested at any time for any reason. Typically get results in about 48 hours. I can try to help her if you want me to.

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Had symptoms starting today. She saw I guess her PCP over telehealth. She lives in the Springboro area. Have another co-worker at a different facility though who lives in Cincinnati and her doc referred her to get a test at a facility in the Beechmont area. Not sure if this testing or no testing has something to do with the county you are in?

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

So what do you think about the Georgia governor's approach to reopening, '82? Seems a bit...ambitious. Maybe okay for Stone Mountain, GA....but maybe not for Atlanta?

You want to know what the right first step to reopening looks like? A massive Utah county with 1 confirmed case (since recovered) has opened up hiking trails on vast, largely vacant stretches of national monument.

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Georgia is stupid and their Governor seems to be even more stupid. The part of his order that I really don't understand is the fact that his reopening the state supersedes any local ordinances to the contrary. I would think that you would want harder hit areas to be able to close business to stop the spread.

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Originally Posted by Caf

On the economic impact, what we saw in the oil market today is hard to really believe or fathom. It seems to be an increasingly safe bet we will see falls in other commodities like corn, sugar, and soybeans of around 25%. It's hard to imagine deflation when money is being printed at the clip it has been, but it's inevitable. Even at these interest rate levels, debt and deflation is a deadly mix.

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Yeah. This is getting scary economically. It goes to show how much the global economy depends on inertia / perpetual motion that basically 6 weeks of shutdowns has brought us to this point. It's definitely discomforting, to say the least.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

So what do you think about the Georgia governor's approach to reopening, '82? Seems a bit...ambitious. Maybe okay for Stone Mountain, GA....but maybe not for Atlanta?

You want to know what the right first step to reopening looks like? A massive Utah county with 1 confirmed case (since recovered) has opened up hiking trails on vast, largely vacant stretches of national monument.

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I think our Governor is an idiot. Not just because of this. But re-opening bowling alleys and tattoo parlors should give us a massive boost of......something, maybe positive tests?

How about we start with Bed, Bath & Beyond, Petco, Office Depot and the like. In and out, no close contact. Bowling alleys are basically bars with an activity (touching all the same stuff for extended periods). Tattoo parlors are extended visits in close quarters. Did I mention I think he’s an idiot?

Some of the more rural places could probably get close to business as usual. There is Atlanta, then there is Georgia.

I think we can all agree on this - People messing with Deblasio's snitch line is funny

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Mayor Bill de Blasio’s critics let him know how they really felt about his ordering New Yorkers to snitch on each other for violating social-distancing rules — by flooding his new tip line with crank complaints including “dick pics” and people flipping the bird, The Post has learned.

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https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/de-bla...site%20buttons

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Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

They should start by re-opening the golf courses. Close the Pro shop and move all the essentals out front. Get one of those Chinese spray guns and hose down all the pull and electric carts. One rider to each electric cart. Golfers should have no trouble with social distancing, especially with my slice.

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Done. You can play golf in Denver tmrw.

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Originally Posted by Juice

I think we can all agree on this - People messing with Deblasio's snitch line is funny



https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/de-bla...site%20buttons

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I wonder what the hell he expected? Then again, I bet some people actually used the line for it’s intended purpose. You know those folks are out there......

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Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

Done. You can play golf in Denver tmrw.

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You’ve been able to play here all along. Not sure if EVERY course is open, but my son has been spending a lot of time on golfing at Lake Oconee.

Golfing in Ohio at my club hasnt stopped.

We:

1. Walk (no carts allowed for now)
2. Have cup protector (piece of foam in bottom of the cup) that keeps the ball suspended above the hole so you don't reach down into the cup
3. Pro shop and restaurant is closed. You call in your tee time

If you just make some common sense adjustments to things, you can make it more safe and keep your distance.

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Originally Posted by bleedXblue

Golfing in Ohio at my club hasnt stopped.

We:

1. Walk (no carts allowed for now)
2. Have cup protector (piece of foam in bottom of the cup) that keeps the ball suspended above the hole so you don't reach down into the cup
3. Pro shop and restaurant is closed. You call in your tee time

If you just make some common sense adjustments to things, you can make it more safe and keep your distance.

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Here it was one person per cart if you want to ride.

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600 (Projected peak day Today at 1,607 per model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 806 72 Probable/Assumed cases today.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 yesterday with 56 probable/assumed- A LOT from the Marion County prison
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,779 (up only 126 from yesterday- many from Marion County Prison) since reporting began over a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 838 since reporting began a month ago (up 40 from yesterday)
New Deaths today: 48 to 557 total.
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million
Note: Marion County has the highest total of cases of any Ohio County- 2132 of which 2104 are from the Marion State Prison, not the general population. Their total has increased by 2,022 in FIVE days. These were most assuredly NOT factored in to the original models that DeWine has been touting to shut the state down.

So let's recap:

-The "peak date" has passed and case numbers are down- even more so if you take out the prison.
-At no time did the case load ever reach the projected peak, even without more testing but plenty of screaming for it, and even with the Marion numbers, the cases are decreasing.
-Take out the prison numbers and the daily case load never even reached half of the daily peak projected number of 1,600, much less 10,000 or 20,000.
-No hospitals have been overrun. In fact some hospitals are dismantling the temporary "clinics" that were never used.
-No ICU's have been overrun. In fact the total of 838 ICU admits is over a 40 day time period- an average of 21 per day in the entire state!

As I've said, I supported DeWine's moves- to last weekend. But now he's sounding like a salesman who doesn't know when to shut up or quit.
Mike, you've won, but stop it. You insist on keeping this tourniquet on for another 10 days while the bleeding has long stopped.You keep justifying these models and actions while the patient (Ohio workers) aren't bleeding to death, but choking to death on restrictions!
OPEN THE F-ING STATE UP!!!!!

Discounting the prison population is far worse than counting “assumed” cases. When 75% of a population tests positive (and deaths will occur) as they have in Marion, that shows its virulence. It will be a long time until we will know the correct way to deal with this but seeing how quickly it spread in prison makes me even more wary going forward...

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

OPEN THE F-ING STATE UP!!!!!

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I don't think I have asked, and I don't think you have answered this question, but I apologize if I missed it somewhere in the thread.

What does opening the "F-ing State Up" look like in your eyes? Is it back to what life was like on February 1 or are there changes to our daily life that you would want to see stay in place? Are there some places that would remain close or limit capacity?

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

Discounting the prison population is far worse than counting “assumed” cases. When 75% of a population tests positive (and deaths will occur) as they have in Marion, that shows its virulence. It will be a long time until we will know the correct way to deal with this but seeing how quickly it spread in prison makes me even more wary going forward...

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I'm not "discounting" anything...except for the prison population being lumped in with the rest of the reported cases. Prisons are very close quarters locations with lots of unsanitary conditions, I believe. To count those cases as the exact same as regular public cases is disingenuous at best, and falsifying the status at worst. I would be interested to see study results as to the amount of other diseases that occur in prisons vs the general open public. I would guess the incidence of occurrence is much higher in prisons across the board. As with other data, we are not getting the level of seriousness in these case numbers. Where are the hospitalizations and ICU admits after these higher prison numbers? Doesn't appear to be happening.

Once again, any defense of the actuals vs the projected models is wrongheaded. I'm assuming that you Lloyd, work in the medical field. I assume as well that you are going to err on the side of conservatism as to the medical side. But that may not be the healthiest thing for society at large, and DeWine's continued tying his actions to these proven faulty models is going to kill this state economically.

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Originally Posted by STL_XUfan

I don't think I have asked, and I don't think you have answered this question, but I apologize if I missed it somewhere in the thread.

What does opening the "F-ing State Up" look like in your eyes? Is it back to what life was like on February 1 or are there changes to our daily life that you would want to see stay in place? Are there some places that would remain close or limit capacity?

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A) Still no sports. :-(
B) Open up Salons and Barber Shops. (Masks required)
C) Open up restaurants with reduced capacities allowing distancing.
D) Open up Department Stores with controlled capacities and distancing. Hell, Target is open now as is Home Depot & Lowes.
E) Allow all Golf courses to open.
F) Keep schools closed until September.
G) This is controversial, but I would allow open air Festivals to conduct business. Again, possibly require masks in their environs, but people are walking around outside anyway and most I'm seeing aren't staying 6 feet away. in Ohio, we don't have that much of a problem. New York has a huge problem.
H) Allow offices and manufacturing to crank back up, based upon the decision of each individual firm. I'm not going to give the government any more sway over private businesses. Many businesses are open for employees to be an an office now, but let them make their own decisions. Businesses need their people and to put them at risk is counterproductive and would cost them more if they lost people and had to retrain new folks.
I) Close the entire Government down and send them on a LOOOOOOOOONNNNG Vacation (Half-Kidding)

Am I missing anything?

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

A) Still no sports. :-(
B) Open up Salons and Barber Shops. (Masks required)
C) Open up restaurants with reduced capacities allowing distancing.
D) Open up Department Stores with controlled capacities and distancing. Hell, Target is open now as is Home Depot & Lowes.
E) Allow all Golf courses to open.
F) Keep schools closed until September.
G) This is controversial, but I would allow open air Festivals to conduct business. Again, possibly require masks in their environs, but people are walking around outside anyway and most I'm seeing aren't staying 6 feet away. in Ohio, we don't have that much of a problem. New York has a huge problem.
H) Allow offices and manufacturing to crank back up, based upon the decision of each individual firm. I'm not going to give the government any more sway over private businesses. Many businesses are open for employees to be an an office now, but let them make their own decisions. Businesses need their people and to put them at risk is counterproductive and would cost them more if they lost people and had to retrain new folks.
I) Close the entire Government down and send them on a LOOOOOOOOONNNNG Vacation (Half-Kidding)

Am I missing anything?

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I don't really disagree with your approach (I think probably wait until May 1 to do it, to hopefully really plateau out). I am way more concerned by the people who seem to think we can just flip this on like a light switch and it will be fine. I think if we do that we will start this whole fun process over again in June.

I think that we all need to accept when we do open back up, it ain't going back to normal for a long time. If you want a haircut, you will be wearing a mask and showing up at a set appointment. Probably get use to ordering from your phone even when at the restaurant. Stores will be metered in how many people can enter (including how many people 1 one party and overall in the store), and everyone will have a mask on. Crowds are going to be down for a long time due to continued restrictions and hopefully a lot of self policing. But on the other hand, carry out Herschels on Wasson Way (BJ, you didn't hear me say that).

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

A) Still no sports. :-(
B) Open up Salons and Barber Shops. (Masks required)
C) Open up restaurants with reduced capacities allowing distancing.
D) Open up Department Stores with controlled capacities and distancing. Hell, Target is open now as is Home Depot & Lowes.
E) Allow all Golf courses to open.
F) Keep schools closed until September.
G) This is controversial, but I would allow open air Festivals to conduct business. Again, possibly require masks in their environs, but people are walking around outside anyway and most I'm seeing aren't staying 6 feet away. in Ohio, we don't have that much of a problem. New York has a huge problem.
H) Allow offices and manufacturing to crank back up, based upon the decision of each individual firm. I'm not going to give the government any more sway over private businesses. Many businesses are open for employees to be an an office now, but let them make their own decisions. Businesses need their people and to put them at risk is counterproductive and would cost them more if they lost people and had to retrain new folks.
I) Close the entire Government down and send them on a LOOOOOOOOONNNNG Vacation (Half-Kidding)

Am I missing anything?

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I agree and add we need to have sports too. Start off with no fans if we must, but filling every other/every third row and keep a 2-seat space between parties. Require masks if we must.

There is strong evidence that scenario will not result in massive spread, and some spread is a great thing so we don’t have another peak in a few months and have to go through this again.

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Originally Posted by xu82

Here it was one person per cart if you want to ride.

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Same here. Weird to see 4 carts on the same hole. What I don’t understand, you can drive through the neighborhood and see 12 carts in one driveway after a round. SMH...

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Originally Posted by noteggs

Same here. Weird to see 4 carts on the same hole. What I don’t understand, you can drive through the neighborhood and see 12 carts in one driveway after a round. SMH...

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Call the HOTLINE!!!

CDC sez could be worse next winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

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Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

CDC sez could be worse next winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

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All the more reason to get things opened up and let this shit run it’s course.

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

I'm not "discounting" anything...except for the prison population being lumped in with the rest of the reported cases. Prisons are very close quarters locations with lots of unsanitary conditions, I believe. To count those cases as the exact same as regular public cases is disingenuous at best, and falsifying the status at worst. I would be interested to see study results as to the amount of other diseases that occur in prisons vs the general open public. I would guess the incidence of occurrence is much higher in prisons across the board. As with other data, we are not getting the level of seriousness in these case numbers. Where are the hospitalizations and ICU admits after these higher prison numbers? Doesn't appear to be happening.

Once again, any defense of the actuals vs the projected models is wrongheaded. I'm assuming that you Lloyd, work in the medical field. I assume as well that you are going to err on the side of conservatism as to the medical side. But that may not be the healthiest thing for society at large, and DeWine's continued tying his actions to these proven faulty models is going to kill this state economically.

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Saying that you are not discounting prisons, yet following that up with many reasons why the prison numbers shouldn’t count to support a faulty model is somewhat contradictory to be generous. Frankly, I don’t really care about the models and never have. I think that people like to quantify this and that gets in the way of what is truly important. There was never a way to accurately predict the course of disease burden and there still isn’t. Why is it a big deal if the models are crap? Realistically we know that this a a highly contagious disease that can kill a lot of people. That’s scary and I for one do not want to contract this nor give this to someone else. Both of those things are likely to happen however.

Hospital systems needed time to get prepared and now that they are it is reasonable to start lifting some restrictions. If people continue to be cautious it will certainly temper the inevitable spike that will occur. There is still a LOT of unknown about this and to brush it off because the current measures have worked to minimize ICU admissions seems short sighted. Again I could be wrong but I have seen first hand how nasty this is. I have seen people die that should not be dead. In the words of Walter White, I think it’s best to “tread lightly“...

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

Saying that you are not discounting prisons, yet following that up with many reasons why the prison numbers shouldn’t count to support a faulty model is somewhat contradictory to be generous. Frankly, I don’t really care about the models and never have. I think that people like to quantify this and that gets in the way of what is truly important. There was never a way to accurately predict the course of disease burden and there still isn’t. Why is it a big deal if the models are crap? Realistically we know that this a a highly contagious disease that can kill a lot of people. That’s scary and I for one do not want to contract this nor give this to someone else. Both of those things are likely to happen however.

Hospital systems needed time to get prepared and now that they are it is reasonable to start lifting some restrictions. If people continue to be cautious it will certainly temper the inevitable spike that will occur. There is still a LOT of unknown about this and to brush it off because the current measures have worked to minimize ICU admissions seems short sighted. Again I could be wrong but I have seen first hand how nasty this is. I have seen people die that should not be dead. In the words of Walter White, I think it’s best to “tread lightly“...

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Agreed, emphasis on the old projections is wasted time and seems petty. It IS dangerous, extremely transmissible and potentially deadly. Let’s focus on the here and now, find the best way to move forward and be ready to adapt if needed.

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Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

CDC sez could be worse next winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

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This is the 'Fear Porn' that Bill Maher had a monologue on this week. The direct quote from the CDC director is that "There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through." The headline of "CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating" implies SO much more than that actual quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcvIQJ-QurQ

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Originally Posted by XU '11

This is the 'Fear Porn' that Bill Maher had a monologue on this week. The direct quote from the CDC director is that "There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through." The headline of "CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating" implies SO much more than that actual quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcvIQJ-QurQ

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Exactly. The virus wasn't even close to as bad as the "projections".

1. We will be more prepared with PPE
2. Social distancing will be more prevalent
3. Hugging, shaking hands etc will not return until a vaccine is available
4. We will be much closer to a vaccine. November is 7 MONTHS AWAY. A lot can change in 7 months.
5. Lets hope we wont have a repeat of the colossal stupidity on display in NY/NJ with their leadership

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

Saying that you are not discounting prisons, yet following that up with many reasons why the prison numbers shouldn’t count to support a faulty model is somewhat contradictory to be generous. Frankly, I don’t really care about the models and never have. I think that people like to quantify this and that gets in the way of what is truly important. There was never a way to accurately predict the course of disease burden and there still isn’t. Why is it a big deal if the models are crap? Realistically we know that this a a highly contagious disease that can kill a lot of people. That’s scary and I for one do not want to contract this nor give this to someone else. Both of those things are likely to happen however.

Hospital systems needed time to get prepared and now that they are it is reasonable to start lifting some restrictions. If people continue to be cautious it will certainly temper the inevitable spike that will occur. There is still a LOT of unknown about this and to brush it off because the current measures have worked to minimize ICU admissions seems short sighted. Again I could be wrong but I have seen first hand how nasty this is. I have seen people die that should not be dead. In the words of Walter White, I think it’s best to “tread lightly“...

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It's a big deal, not so much medically-other than all the expense that hospitals went to to over-prepare- but the models have been the Bible that Acton and DeWine have been following and what they keep basing their decision on to keep the state shut down. And because they are crap, they have caused overreaction IMO. And DeWine/Acton STILL are using them despite their proven garbage.
See, again Lloyd. You are looking at this strictly from a medical point of view. That's your life. But the rest of us need an economy that works, and to continually base decisions that are killing people's livelihoods on trash data is bad, bad stuff. We're still stuck on this lockdown for at least another week and if Acton has her way, another number of months. It has to end. It is becoming financial suicide.

Finally. I'm sure you've seen "people die" from all sorts of diseases where they maybe shouldn't have- probably the flu or H1N1. But was the entire state and country locked down because of it? Are we just going to stop living life because there might be a disease out there that might kill us. Well, there have been those diseases already and there always will be. Of course, caution should be exercised, but man trying to play God and thinking he can just keep people from dying by wrapping the world in a bubble and tying them down is unrealistic and wrong.

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Originally Posted by xu82

Agreed, emphasis on the old projections is wasted time and seems petty. It IS dangerous, extremely transmissible and potentially deadly. Let’s focus on the here and now, find the best way to move forward and be ready to adapt if needed.

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I definitely agree with the last part of your take. We need to be more agile and prepared as data continues to change. Emphasis on older projections might seem petty to some, but when your elected leaders make immediate and hard hitting public policy decisions based on overstated projections I think it's fair to call it into question.

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

It's a big deal, not so much medically-other than all the expense that hospitals went to to over-prepare- but the models have been the Bible that Acton and DeWine have been following and what they keep basing their decision on to keep the state shut down. And because they are crap, they have caused overreaction IMO. And DeWine/Acton STILL are using them despite their proven garbage.
See, again Lloyd. You are looking at this strictly from a medical point of view. That's your life. But the rest of us need an economy that works, and to continually base decisions that are killing people's livelihoods on trash data is bad, bad stuff. We're still stuck on this lockdown for at least another week and if Acton has her way, another number of months. It has to end. It is becoming financial suicide.

Finally. I'm sure you've seen "people die" from all sorts of diseases where they maybe shouldn't have- probably the flu or H1N1. But was the entire state and country locked down because of it? Are we just going to stop living life because there might be a disease out there that might kill us. Well, there have been those diseases already and there always will be. Of course, caution should be exercised, but man trying to play God and thinking he can just keep people from dying by wrapping the world in a bubble and tying them down is unrealistic and wrong.

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Sure, people die all the time, the point was that it is not just old folks that are dying from this. I don’t agree with keeping it locked down either as I’ve previously stated, but to say it was an overreaction is impossible to know, because it is likely that we will see a spike in cases. Economic damage is inevitable regardless of restrictions, businesses will continue to suffer once opened.

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

Sure, people die all the time, the point was that it is not just old folks that are dying from this. I don’t agree with keeping it locked down either as I’ve previously stated, but to say it was an overreaction is impossible to know, because it is likely that we will see a spike in cases. Economic damage is inevitable regardless of restrictions, businesses will continue to suffer once opened.

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Ding ding ding! I think you can go a step further and say it will be worse if they rush back and it backfires in anyway. Consumer confidence is a very fragile thing and it stands to reason a majority of people will continue to operate with caution regardless of what the government says.

I take that as evidence that we should begin the process just to gain comfort, confidence, etc. I have little hope, as I suspect the governors do, that we can achieve such a level of coordination.

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Originally Posted by Smails

I definitely agree with the last part of your take. We need to be more agile and prepared as data continues to change. Emphasis on older projections might seem petty to some, but when your elected leaders make immediate and hard hitting public policy decisions based on overstated projections I think it's fair to call it into question.

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Unfortunately, at the time the lousy projections were all they had to work with. Imagine the outrage (and tragedy) if they “under prepare”. It was a lose/lose situation. Now all we can do is learn from it and move forward....as wisely and quickly as we can.

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

So the options are:
1) Hide from it for the next few years until a vaccine is discovered.
2) Go live my life albeit cautiously, and maybe get it someday and have a 99.8% chance of survival.

I’ll go with 2. The first one sounds worse than death to me.

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The longer this goes on, the more people will feel this way. That's only natural. I hope our leaders understand that.

I know this isn't a realistic hypothetical, but it is definitely something to consider. If faced with the following two choices...

A) You are guaranteed not to get the virus, but you will lose your job, income, health insurance since you're not working, potentially your home, and oh yeah, your family will lose all that as well.

or..

B) You are guaranteed to get the virus, but you and your family won't lose anything and if you recover your life can go back to normal.


Nearly EVERYONE would choose option B. I know I would. Regardless of what the actual mortality rate is, a 90%-98% chance of survival starts to sound pretty good when you're faced with losing all that.

So, while we can combat the virus with social distancing and shutting things down, that will not work indefinitely. People will eventually reach the "Screw It" stage. The protests we've seen will grow in numbers and in fervor the longer this goes on. I hope our elected leaders are accounting for that.

And...perhaps some reason to hope.

I haven't seen this talked about in the United States that much, but my friends in Europe are rather excited/hopeful. Oxford University in England is convinced they have a vaccine. There are obviously still some major hurdles to get over. First, they have to test it, and then they have to start producing it. But, they are sure enough that they have it that they are already starting to produce it so it is ready in bulk for when the testing is over. Perhaps as early as September for people in the UK.

They say the reason they got it so quickly was because they had already been working on it and (I think) actually had something for other coronaviruses that was working in chimpanzees. They weren't starting from scratch and just needed to modify it, and they now think they have done it. Now...they may not. I'm just saying that they think that they do, and are sure enough to where they are willing to put money into producing it.

Now, what does this mean for us? If it works, when would people in the United States get it? Would we get it at all? Would we pass and say "No thanks. We'll make our own."? I would hope not, but I don't exactly have a high level of faith in our ability to make good decisions these days...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ox...ugh-2020-04-21

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Originally Posted by xubrew

I hope our elected leaders are accounting for that.

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I think at least some of them are. That's where some of this move to slowly re-open things in the next couple of weeks in a lot of states is coming from.

I'll take B). I'm 47 and healthy. My 72 year old mother wants B), my 84 year old Aunt wants B), and my 93 year old grandfather wants B). To quote my Aunt, "I don't know how long I have. The last thing I want to do is waste the time I have left locked in my house. I'm willing to take my chances".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by xubrew

And...perhaps some reason to hope.

I haven't seen this talked about in the United States that much, but my friends in Europe are rather excited/hopeful. Oxford University in England is convinced they have a vaccine. There are obviously still some major hurdles to get over. First, they have to test it, and then they have to start producing it. But, they are sure enough that they have it that they are already starting to produce it so it is ready in bulk for when the testing is over. Perhaps as early as September for people in the UK.

They say the reason they got it so quickly was because they had already been working on it and (I think) actually had something for other coronaviruses that was working in chimpanzees. They weren't starting from scratch and just needed to modify it, and they now think they have done it. Now...they may not. I'm just saying that they think that they do, and are sure enough to where they are willing to put money into producing it.

Now, what does this mean for us? If it works, when would people in the United States get it? Would we get it at all? Would we pass and say "No thanks. We'll make our own."? I would hope not, but I don't exactly have a high level of faith in our ability to make good decisions these days...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ox...ugh-2020-04-21

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It doesn't get any play because it doesn't fit the MSM narrative aka Covid 19 fear porn. I was watching a BBC news show last night, and you would think they'd be all over this story. But no, they're interviewing some scientist in Washington, who is talking about 2021 or 2022, at the earliest. Neither made any mention of this story. But the program was on PBS, which I should have expected. Call me tinfoil hat guy, but what is scarier to me than the virus, is the media and probably some Congresspersons salivating that this plague continues into the Fall. It's scary, and sick, and disgusting to me.

Update on Sweden:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-l...-in-weeks.html

In short, Sweden has seen COVID-19 cases and impacts level off, and expect to have "herd immunity" through much of the country in the coming weeks. COVID-19 can no longer be a pandemic there, however this has come at a cost of higher death rate primarily for their elderly.

I'm sure the debate will be: "is the higher number of deaths worth minimizing economic impact"? What is missing is the fact that the virus is still around in the U.S. and a huge portion of the population is still vulnerable. So the real debate for the U.S. should be: "is delaying the higher number of deaths under lock down worth the profound economic impact now, and likely again in a few months?".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

I'll take B). I'm 47 and healthy. My 72 year old mother wants B), my 84 year old Aunt wants B), and my 93 year old grandfather wants B). To quote my Aunt, "I don't know how long I have. The last thing I want to do is waste the time I have left locked in my house. I'm willing to take my chances".

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Maybe you can all go down to Ga. and get a haircut and tattoo. Then go bowling.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

Update on Sweden:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-l...-in-weeks.html

In short, Sweden has seen COVID-19 cases and impacts level off, and expect to have "herd immunity" through much of the country in the coming weeks. COVID-19 can no longer be a pandemic there, however this has come at a cost of higher death rate primarily for their elderly.

I'm sure the debate will be: "is the higher number of deaths worth minimizing economic impact"? What is missing is the fact that the virus is still around in the U.S. and a huge portion of the population is still vulnerable. So the real debate for the U.S. should be: "is delaying the higher number of deaths under lock down worth the profound economic impact now, and likely again in a few months?".

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I know this comes of as callous, but...is it really? Sometimes the only way out of the fire is to run through it. You can sit and wait and hope for another way out, but there may not be one. It may not go away until we develop a herd immunity to it, and the only way for that to happen is for people to develop an immunity to it. And since there isn't a sure fire vaccine yet, then...is there another way?? Even if it sounds callous, I think it's at least a fair question. Perhaps an expert (and I know we have a few) can explain whether or not that's an inevitable outcome.