Covid-19

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

So what % do you believe there to be an overcount? Do you believe every COVID death has been captured? What about false negatives, which far outweigh false positives en vivo? Bottom line is it sounds like you believe this is overblown, is that a fair assumption? You didn’t reply to my previous critique on the article you posted on masking so it’s tough to know where you stand BUT you have posted recently in this thread that cases and deaths are overcounted, masks are ineffective, and testing is useless and perhaps counterproductive since we don’t know each tests’ amplification cycle rate. I guess I’m not sure what argument you ar making, if any, or just playing devils advocate.

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As to your prior post, sorry, Lloyd. I didn't I didn't see anything to respond to. So my response is "OK". I have nothing else to add.

False negatives are not a bigger problem than false positives - not even close. Let me know if you need me to present the math again.

As to the death overcount, the best way to estimate CV19 deaths, is to start with total 2020 excess deaths, all causes. Then subtract estimated year-over-year increase due to aging population. Then subtract deaths caused by lockdowns (suicide, OD, lack of proper medical care, etc.). These numbers could be debated for hours, as they are estimates of estimates, but I am confident it's well under 200k.

You summarize my points well, but I don't believe masks are ineffective. They are minimally effective. There's too much practical evidence to believe they are more than that. Wear them when in public, indoors, and around people for more than a few minutes. I do.

My argument? I guess I feel an obligation to illuminate that the metrics being used to drive policy (#cases, #deaths, test accuracy, positivity rate) are not absolutes. Not by a long-shot, and need to be understood in the proper context. Taking these at face value is causing very bad policy decisions, that will ultimately hurt society much more than they help.

The virus cannot be stopped - not by shutdowns, not by masks, or perhaps even by a vaccine. We need to accept that. But the good news is it is not nearly as bad as it's been made out to be, and it can be managed. Practice common sense hygiene, self isolate with symptoms, protect the vulnerable (as a society), and otherwise live our lives - 100%. This will meet the original goal of preventing hospitals from exceeding capacity, while minimizing overall deaths and minimizing collateral social damage. In short, it's for the greatest common good. That has been my argument since May.

So who's planning to follow the "California Rules" on family gatherings this holiday season? As my wife has two siblings, I'm eager to find out which of the kids' families is left out. Also, I hope we either have a warm holiday season or they're stocked up on propane and outdoor heaters since holiday gatherings need to be outside.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

So who's planning to follow the "California Rules" on family gatherings this holiday season? As my wife has two siblings, I'm eager to find out which of the kids' families is left out. Also, I hope we either have a warm holiday season or they're stocked up on propane and outdoor heaters since holiday gatherings need to be outside.

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The no shouting or singing rule won't really resonate with my German/Italian family.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

So who's planning to follow the "California Rules" on family gatherings this holiday season? As my wife has two siblings, I'm eager to find out which of the kids' families is left out. Also, I hope we either have a warm holiday season or they're stocked up on propane and outdoor heaters since holiday gatherings need to be outside.

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We will probably skip the holiday gatherings this year. We weren't going to go back for Thanksgiving anyways. Not going home for Christmas means that we don't have to drive 10hrs each way with 3 kids and a dog packed into a minivan with a ton of presents. It doesn't seem worth the risk to stay at my parent's house for a week plus with a bunch of kids and people coming and going. It might be kind of nice, actually. If a little boring.

Having said that - We are having a Halloween party on Saturday at our house with about 6 families from our neighborhood. We have generally been going the same places and socializing outdoors all Summer and fall. We feel like it's a reasonably safe 'pod', even if it's a little on the larger side. It's hard to randomly exclude people, although our neighbors who are Doctors have opted out of socializing for the most part as they view themselves as high risk.

We will gather outside and I have had my patio expanded and purchased propane heaters etc. to extend the outdoor entertaining season. Once we can't entertain outdoors we will probably shut it down for the winter. South Jersey winters aren't usually too cold so I'm hoping we get lucky this year.

New song from Van Morrison - damn, I love him even more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUOWS7arfw4

More songs and info here: https://www.rockcellarmagazine.com/v...t-song-listen/

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Originally Posted by boozehound

We will probably skip the holiday gatherings this year.

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We don't do anything for Thanksgiving as we're far from family, but we'll be jammed in at the in-laws' for a week with cousins all around us. My parents probably won't let us inside the house, but I guess we'll stop by for a short visit on the patio on the way through town.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

We don't do anything for Thanksgiving as we're far from family, but we'll be jammed in at the in-laws' for a week with cousins all around us. My parents probably won't let us inside the house, but I guess we'll stop by for a short visit on the patio on the way through town.

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Somehow we became The Hub for Thanksgiving. Maybe a couple dozen people on average. It’s one of two meals a year my wife insists on handling (the other being a repeat for Christmas), so I get the day off in the kitchen.

I thought this year would obviously be different. Then I learn my sister and her husband plan to come down from Wisconsin to be with their two daughters here. My 93 year old mother needs to be included, of course. We win Thanksgiving with our son and his wife since they do a HUGE thing for Christmas with her HUGE family (she’s one if six daughters, most older with families) in Florida. My son has been talking to the son of a couple who has been with us on Thanksgiving for years. This family has two sons, one will be married and the other is engaged. My wife’s assistant is the daughter of some of our closest friends from Florida, and she doesn’t know anyone but our clan in Atlanta. She just moved here to work for my wife. We have some other friends (my tennis buddy in Florida) who have moved up here and are wondering what to do. They are pretty damn active, always out and about and have three kids college age and up. There are a few others who are “almost alone” who we always include.

This SEEMS to possibly be spiraling upward and I need to get proactive about drawing lines and setting expectations. It’s just hard to know where to draw the line.

I'll be hitting Huntington Beach to see #1 son as usual with a stopover in Vegas. Hope the weather is decent and I don't catch on fire along the way.

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Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

I'll be hitting Huntington Beach to see #1 son as usual with a stopover in Vegas. Hope the weather is decent and I don't catch on fire along the way.

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Really? What a hypocrite....Mr. Superspreader!

My brother, also an X grad is having Tgiving on his screened in porch with propane heaters. Indy is usually pretty cold in Nov, so I hope the heaters work.