Covid-19

A big problem with this is everyone is expecting the models to be extremely accurate. Just look at how often the weather forecasts are way off. They’re based on the data available at the time, but shit happens and sometimes they’re just flat wrong.

The more data, the better the modeling. Also, I think the people doing the modeling were intentionally overstating the risk (which the media loves). They’d rather have to come back with lower fatality rates than to admit they were way off and that a lot more people than originally thought are going to die.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

Thanks Fellah. I agree with everything. The models are proven to be wrong but the outcomes are wonderful. I have agreed with DeWines moves to date but this thing is now dissipating as per real numbers and no medical facilities in the state are being overwhelmed.
There needs to be movement to get life back on track.

---

I agree with all of this, and glad you agree with DeWine’s moves. I expect the movement will come from DeWine himself very soon. Start with getting “non-essential” businesses reopened. Then restaurants once they Are setup to keep patrons from being too close and frequent cleaning of common areas. Monitor numbers for a couple weeks and go from there. It is time.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

Nice try, but I never said the models were great/accurate, I was just responding to your ridiculous statement that “there is zero underreporting in Ohio.” Which there clearly is. Which has nothing to do with hospitalizations or model accuracy. Simple statement that was wrong and you are the one shifting goal posts.

---

I’ve moved nothing. You also have shown no tangible proof that there are underreported numbers. None- especially on Hospitalizations. Common Sense doesn’t cut it. Go back to post 888 on this thread where you challenged me and then post 943. I have been totally consistent in my initial statement arguing that the models have been wrong, wrong and wrong- and that the actions that have been taken are based upon faulty models. I also have said numerous times that I have been supportive of the actions taken so far, but I will say this- That DeWine extending this shutdown to May 1 is an arbitrary overreach and I believe based upon the continual inaccurate model projections. I also said that there was no underreporting in Ohio and what I was primarily referring to was the real key number HOSPITALIZATIONS (although I should have made that more clear). I have since stated that I really don’t give a crap about number of cases, except to prove that the models were wrong. The Hospitalizations are the key stat because early on the justification for these severe shutdowns were to keep the medical facilities from being “overrun”. They are not anywhere close to being overrun in Ohio, the numbers are starting to decline and yet we’re still under the thumb until 5/1. THAT’S THREE MORE WEEKS!!
This is why I post the daily numbers. I’m now declaring that DeWine has to start loosening the reins, and not 3 weeks from now.
Suggestion? Reopen the restaurants with walk-in traffic with masks required? Reopen Hair salons with masks required? Maybe require masks everywhere, for now, but this economy crushing has got to stop when the real numbers aren’t supporting the action.

Paul posted (#992 since we are now referencing posts) an article on how deaths are likely being underreported because people are arriving DOA. The very next post (993) you said “There is zero under reporting in Ohio”. I guess I should have known you were referring to hospitalizations? Whatever. We are not really disagreeing on much here other than I am not quite ready to release the hounds, and would feel better in 2-3 weeks to do so.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bjf123

A big problem with this is everyone is expecting the models to be extremely accurate. Just look at how often the weather forecasts are way off. They’re based on the data available at the time, but shit happens and sometimes they’re just flat wrong.

The more data, the better the modeling. Also, I think the people doing the modeling were intentionally overstating the risk (which the media loves). They’d rather have to come back with lower fatality rates than to admit they were way off and that a lot more people than originally thought are going to die.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

---

They just didn't overstate the risk, they massively overstated the risk which scared governors, mayors, and people into hysterics that has resulted in millions losing their jobs and health insurance. Now hospitals are closing and cutting workers because of their mistakes. There are ways to be conservative and careful and not blow up an economy. This will take years to come back from because people got really, really scared because they didn't have the balls to answer to a media that wanted this to be bad.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

Suggestion? Reopen the restaurants with walk-in traffic with masks required?

---

How do you eat at a restaurant with a mask on?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b1/fe...729c667456.jpg

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 354 Including 44 “assumed”.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 1,948 (up 193 from yesterday) since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 595 since reporting began a month ago (47 new)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds: 2,500

No comment other than the numbers remain minimal compared to the models, are not exponentially increasing even though the state has now started including “assumed” cases as real cases, and no hospitals are being overrun. (Shrugs Shoulders)
3 more lockdown weeks of this, huh??

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 354 Including 44 “assumed”.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 1,948 (up 193 from yesterday) since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 595 since reporting began a month ago (47 new)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds: 2,500

No comment other than the numbers remain minimal compared to the models, are not exponentially increasing even though the state has now started including “assumed” cases as real cases, and no hospitals are being overrun. (Shrugs Shoulders)
3 more lockdown weeks of this, huh??

Since hospitalizations and ICU admits are rising in Ohio, I am assuming you all haven't peaked yet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by paulxu

Since hospitalizations and ICU admits are rising in Ohio, I am assuming you all haven't peaked yet.

---

The "Experts" allege Ohio peaked on April 8.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohio

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Juice

The "Experts" allege Ohio peaked on April 8.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohio

---

Dey all be guessin’.

Nobody has any clear answers here. Some will turn out to be right, and some wrong. This is a crapshoot like the NFL Draft, but a lot less fun.

I am beginning to think that college football and all other fall sports might be moved to the spring. It may even be worse than that. We may not have any college sports at all in 2020-2021.

Time will tell but all hospital systems are and have been preparing for a surge and subsequent peak to occur after the restrictions are lifted. Which would indicate a peak of mid/late May or early June.
A peak of April 8 would be great, but unlikely without restrictions that last through the summer.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xubrew

I am beginning to think that college football and all other fall sports might be moved to the spring. It may even be worse than that. We may not have any college sports at all in 2020-2021.

---

Doom and gloom you are. Geesh

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bleedXblue

Doom and gloom you are. Geesh

---

Yes. It is borderline depressing. For me in particular.

Despite how I undoubtedly come off on here a lot of the time, I'm normally a very happy person. I'm one of the very few people that if asked the common question of "If you suddenly won $10 million dollars, what would you do?" could honestly answer "Pretty much the same things I'm doing now." But, not with this. I am extremely worried. I'm not worried about getting sick myself. I don't want it to happen, but if it does I figure I'll just do the best I can with it believe that I'll hopefully be one of the many that is able to fight through it after a rough couple of weeks. I am scared (it's to that point now) of how much and for how long this will alter the normalcy of life.

When it comes to restarting things, the NCAA will not be the first ones through the door. They will not come back and start playing if the NFL and NBA don't. They also seem to be of the understanding that this is just the first wave. Once the county reopens (which it needs to) there will be a second wave of outbreaks and infections. Considering how much travel and movement college athletics requires, and how it generates mass crowds, I do not think they will completely restart until the virus is gone. And, that may not happen for another 18 months.

So, yes, as of now I'm doom and gloom and I hate it. I may be needing someones couch for about a year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xubrew

Yes. It is borderline depressing. For me in particular.

Despite how I undoubtedly come off on here a lot of the time, I'm normally a very happy person. I'm one of the very few people that if asked the common question of "If you suddenly won $10 million dollars, what would you do?" could honestly answer "Pretty much the same things I'm doing now." But, not with this. I am extremely worried. I'm not worried about getting sick myself. I don't want it to happen, but if it does I figure I'll just do the best I can with it believe that I'll hopefully be one of the many that is able to fight through it after a rough couple of weeks. I am scared (it's to that point now) of how much and for how long this will alter the normalcy of life.

When it comes to restarting things, the NCAA will not be the first ones through the door. They will not come back and start playing if the NFL and NBA don't. They also seem to be of the understanding that this is just the first wave. Once the county reopens (which it needs to) there will be a second wave of outbreaks and infections. Considering how much travel and movement college athletics requires, and how it generates mass crowds, I do not think they will completely restart until the virus is gone. And, that may not happen for another 18 months.

So, yes, as of now I'm doom and gloom and I hate it. I may be needing someones couch for about a year.

---

Brew, way too much money to be lost if the games aren't played. I see MLB and NBA starting back up sometime in May. There will be restrictions on who can attend games and you may even have to sign a waiver of some sort. But, the games will go on as they should. Players will be tested regularly. Fans wont be allowed within 10-15 feet of the courts/fields etc. They want and need the TV revenue. So, attendance will be sparse initially.........

Honestly, if this thing stays on the downward curve for a while, I expect all sports to be back in operation no later than July, albeit with major changes, like no fans in stands, social distancing changes, major testing to protect (or look like they're trying to protect) employees. Honestly, there's just too much money involved for it not to happen and people are really hungry for live sports to return.

I honestly don't think there will be any mass gatherings allowed anywhere until there is a vaccine or a reliable way to stop the illness when people get it, so that means sports without fans in the stands. But think every major sports will have presented a plan for a return no later than June 1, and probably earlier than that.

I think NBA will be playoffs only in Vegas, no fans. And all MLB in Ariz and Fla, no fans until playoffs, and the playoffs still in small training stadiums. As for college fb, not sure, but probably full go in Oct, and NFL same.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bleedXblue

Brew, way too much money to be lost if the games aren't played. I see MLB and NBA starting back up sometime in May. There will be restrictions on who can attend games and you may even have to sign a waiver of some sort. But, the games will go on as they should. Players will be tested regularly. Fans wont be allowed within 10-15 feet of the courts/fields etc. They want and need the TV revenue. So, attendance will be sparse initially.........

---

I really hope you're right. I also think the possibility of college sports not happening at all in 2020-2021 is being talked about amongst presidents and conference commissioners a little more than people realize, and that scares the hell out of me. I never thought they'd cancel the basketball tournament. I thought they might postpone it, close it to the public, rework the rules of the bracket to make it so teams didn't have to travel, etc, but I never thought they'd just cancel it because of all the money from the TV contracts. They did. I'm inclined to think that if they'll cancel that, they'll cancel anything.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bleedXblue

Brew, way too much money to be lost if the games aren't played. I see MLB and NBA starting back up sometime in May. There will be restrictions on who can attend games and you may even have to sign a waiver of some sort. But, the games will go on as they should. Players will be tested regularly. Fans wont be allowed within 10-15 feet of the courts/fields etc. They want and need the TV revenue. So, attendance will be sparse initially.........

---

What in the world makes you think any sports will return in May?

Even Clay Travis was celebrating "sports starting to roar back" but he was talking about July.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xubrew

I really hope you're right. I also think the possibility of college sports not happening at all in 2020-2021 is being talked about amongst presidents and conference commissioners a little more than people realize, and that scares the hell out of me. I never thought they'd cancel the basketball tournament. I thought they might postpone it, close it to the public, rework the rules of the bracket to make it so teams didn't have to travel, etc, but I never thought they'd just cancel it because of all the money from the TV contracts. They did. I'm inclined to think that if they'll cancel that, they'll cancel anything.

---

This is sad and will be devastating to non power schools. The loss of revenue will be tough to overcome for a lot of football programs. These programs still are obligated to pay scholarships for tuition, room and board and won't have any revenue coming in. Old Dominion already started cutting sports and if there is no football season in the fall, sports will be getting cut at a lot of universities I am afraid. I guess the good thing for Xavier is that they don't have football to rely on or worry about.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...ct-coronavirus

It is sad and no easy solution. Would you rather lose millions of lives or have 50 million unemployed which would then cause lost lives???

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 371 Including 50 “assumed/probable
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,033 (up 85 from yesterday) since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 613 since reporting began a month ago (up 18 from yesterday)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds : 2,500

Day 250,000,000,000,000 . No hospitalization or ICU overrun. Meanwhile economic death continues. #GroundhogDay

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by paulxu

Since hospitalizations and ICU admits are rising in Ohio, I am assuming you all haven't peaked yet.

---

They aren’t. Look at the above.

If someone surveyed me a month ago and ask me how many times a day does my face itch? I probably would’ve guessed once or twice vs 1000 times it actually does.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by noteggs

If someone surveyed me a month ago and ask me how many times a day does my face itch? I probably would’ve guessed once or twice vs 1000 times it actually does.

---

It makes me wonder how I EVER get ANYTHING done! It seems ALL I do is touch my face!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

They aren’t. Look at the above.

---

Down today, but up yesterday. So maybe that was the peak?

Sweden will soon be providing an answer about the cost/benefit of social distancing. They have maintained a very non-aggressive position, only closing high schools and limiting gatherings of over 50. I decided to check into how things were going for them. Here are the Sweden deaths since April 1:

4/1/2020: 59

4/2/2020: 69

4/3/2020: 50

4/4/2020: 15

4/5/2020: 28

4/6/2020: 76

4/7/2020: 114

4/8/2020: 96

4/9/2020: 106

4/10/2020: 77

4/11/2020: 17

4/12/2020: 12

4/13/2020: 20

There were a few bad days, but they have clearly fallen off the last 4 days.

I then started wondering what the IMHE model predicted (version updated April 6 – the data I had downloaded) about Sweden's death rate, compared to actual. With fear of channeling MOR, below are the results vs the model (Modeled | Actual):

4/6/2020: 84 | 76
4/7/2020: 67 |114
4/8/2020: 71 | 96
4/9/2020: 75 | 106
4/10/2020: 82 |77
4/11/2020: 83 |17
4/12/2020: 87 |12
4/13/2020: 97 | 20
IMHE just updated the model again using actual data through 4/12. Despite the actual results, the modeled deaths have increased, showing the country is on a huge spike, with deaths peaking in early May at over 500/day (https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden): 4/13/2020: 150 4/14/2020: 142 4/15/2020: 150 4/16/2020: 159 4/17/2020: 169 4/18/2020: 179 4/19/2020: 191 4/20/2020: 204 4/21/2020: 218 4/22/2020: 234 4/23/2020: 251 4/24/2020: 269 4/25/2020: 289 4/26/2020: 310 4/27/2020: 332 4/28/2020: 355 4/29/2020: 379 4/30/2020: 404 5/1/2020: 429 5/2/2020: 453 5/3/2020: 478 5/4/2020: 501 5/5/2020: 523 5/6/2020: 544 5/7/2020: 557 5/8/2020: 560 According to this model, Sweden should already be over their medical capacity. Some quick Google searches did not reveal any news that is the case. Also per the model, they will be in dire straits, requiring over 50-times the number of ICU beds needed. Time will tell…

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by paulxu

Down today, but up yesterday. So maybe that was the peak?

---

427 cases on 4/4. That is in my post. That was before they started adjusting the numbers adding in “assumed” cases.
That was over a week ago in Ohio. That seems to be the “peak” to me?

Hospitalizations and ICU’s have been in a fairly tight range for quite a while. Maybe some minor fluctuations but the numbers were way down today.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

427 cases on 4/4. That is in my post. That was before they started adjusting the numbers adding in “assumed” cases.
That was over a week ago in Ohio. That seems to be the “peak” to me?

Hospitalizations and ICU’s have been in a fairly tight range for quite a while. Maybe some minor fluctuations but the numbers were way down today.

---

You're putting a lot of weight into the "peak". This is dynamic, if they relax restriction when infection/death/etc slow it's easy to see how you can cause the curve to go back up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

There needs to be movement to get life back on track.

---

Trump sez he and only he can re-open the country, including Ohio. So give him a call and tell him he's losing your vote.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

Trump sez he and only he can re-open the country, including Ohio. So give him a call and tell him he's losing your vote.

---

Rather than throwing stones, what is your learned recommendation?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Caf

You're putting a lot of weight into the "peak". This is dynamic, if they relax restriction when infection/death/etc slow it's easy to see how you can cause the curve to go back up.

---

I didn’t put any weight on anything. I was merely responding to Paul’s assertion that the Ohio peak had either recently been reached or possibly not reached yet. If you think the “peak” is number of cases, it happened a week ago. Who knows what the future holds?

What is the point of your post?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Caf

You're putting a lot of weight into the "peak". This is dynamic, if they relax restriction when infection/death/etc slow it's easy to see how you can cause the curve to go back up.

---

I didn’t put any weight on anything. I was merely responding to Paul’s assertion that the Ohio peak had either recently been reached or possibly not reached yet. If you think the “peak” is number of cases, it happened a week ago. Who knows what the future holds?

What is the point of your post?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

I didn’t put any weight on anything. I was merely responding to Paul’s assertion that the Ohio peak had either recently been reached or possibly not reached yet. If you think the “peak” is number of cases, it happened a week ago. Who knows what the future holds?

What is the point of your post?

---

I took the end of your post #1064 to mean you think we are overreacting relative to the economic pain. My mistake if that's not the case.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

Rather than throwing stones, what is your learned recommendation?

---

No stones. Trump sez he has "total authority' TO re-open. So why keep up the rant on Ohio? Apparently the virus will no longer be a problem when he decides. Redirect your anger at the feds.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterofreality

I didn’t put any weight on anything. I was merely responding to Paul’s assertion that the Ohio peak had either recently been reached or possibly not reached yet. If you think the “peak” is number of cases, it happened a week ago. Who knows what the future holds?

What is the point of your post?

---

I didn't "assert" anything. I asked a question...was the peak reached?

And I was not refering to cases, but ICU admissions, which had risen the day before, then fallen yesterday.

Scrolling thru linked in today and I am seeing a ton of posts about how they were recently let go etc and this is in businesses that have still been working, but their customers or potential customers are not. This is going to start getting really ugly...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Xville

Scrolling thru linked in today and I am seeing a ton of posts about how they were recently let go etc and this is in businesses that have still been working, but their customers or potential customers are not. This is going to start getting really ugly...

---

This is true. My company is in the financial services business and we are open but weekly revenues company wide are down about $1 million a week right not, that’s an absolute ton of lost revenue for us. We have had to let a lot of our cooperate employees go already and I am sure the longer this goes, field operations will probably start to feel the cuts next.