Politics Thread

Newsweek - Who Is Ann Selzer?

Selzer has been doing polls in Iowa (for the Des Moines Register) since 1987 - she's not a fly-by-night pollster (nor is Emerson, for that matter). She did predict Trump wins in Iowa for both 2016 and 2020. She was only off by 1 percentage point last time around.

That said, Iowa has the same number of electoral votes as Nevada; I still believe 538 has Trump with a very narrow edge in Nevada. Should Trump flip Nevada, it would be negated if Harris ends up flipping Iowa.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

Speaking of betting, the wagering markets are definitely trending Harris. As of this morning, Trump -139 and Harris +119. Trump was -130 at one point when i looked last night.

Trump is just 53.6% on Polymarket. It's a barn burner.

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I’ll be absolutely stunned if trump wins this. I just don’t think there is a way in hell he becomes president again.

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Originally Posted by XU 23

Is there a list I can sign up for so I can get more political texts?

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Can I add the daily pub and lib political flyer in the mail. Do you delete and report the political texts as spam or just block the number.

I actually texted back Fuck you to a text from "Ted Cruz" asking for donations.

I was rewarded with another week of spam texts from another 20 numbers for about a week. Take from that what you will.

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Originally Posted by STL_XUfan

Yeah, not betting money against random internet stranger. But how about 1 week of not posting in this thread?

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Well I was hoping to take the wife out for a long weekend… but okay. Deal.

Any other takers? Paul? Bobbie?

Polymarket gives Trump an 82% chance of winning Iowa. Betonline.ag has Trump as a -600 favorite in Iowa.

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Originally Posted by xubrew

I only live in one small corner of the country, but I think it actually feels a little less tense than in 2020. The difference being that no one really likes their own candidate and wants them to win. They just hate the other candidate and want them to lose. It’s still tense, and it will still be a mess, but I’m thinking not quite as much as four years ago.

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Yeah, I am in rural southern Ohio....definitely Trump heavy redneck country. Even if he loses, there will be zero issues here.

I predicted he is going down immediately after the debate...and nothing has changed. The "Never Trump" vote is just too significant.

There will be an angry MAGA response....but where and how? It is logical to think it will be in swing state capitals or DC again. The only question is how it gets organized.

Bad place for America.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

4 days to go! Nice to have a weekend of college and NFL football to distract us (and college basketball Monday!). Betting markets are edging a bit towards Harris (and Polymarket was actually a pretty big jump towards Harris).

Trump -180
Harris +155

Polymarket has Trump with a 61.6% chance to win as of this morning. You can see current odds and the trend here: https://polymarket.com/elections

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The momentum is obviously all with Harris as we come down to the wire, although they ticked back towards Trump just a bit in the last 24 hours.

Trump -147
Harris +127

Polymarket has Trump with a 57.9% chance to win as of this morning. You can see current odds and the trend here: https://polymarket.com/elections

Guessing you don:t like the des moines poll

L

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Originally Posted by Xuperman

Yeah, I am in rural southern Ohio....definitely Trump heavy redneck country. Even if he loses, there will be zero issues here.

I predicted he is going down immediately after the debate...and nothing has changed. The "Never Trump" vote is just too significant.

There will be an angry MAGA response....but where and how? It is logical to think it will be in swing state capitals or DC again. The only question is how it gets organized.

Bad place for America.

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I don't think the Never Trump crowd is quite as loud as it was four years ago either. Four years ago there seemed to be a huge push to get young first time voters registered to vote knowing most of them would vote against Trump. It seemed as though way more college students voted than what normally do. This year the hornets nest of young college voters does not seem to be anywhere nearly as stirred up as it was in 2020. Many are excited that classes are cancelled for Election Day, but other than that they aren't nearly as engaged. And...yes, some ABSOLUTELY are, but as a whole most are just happy that they get to go out to the bars tonight and then sleep in tomorrow. There are no protests. BLM isn't nearly as present. The late appointments to the Supreme Court didn't throw everyone into a tizzy. It just isn't as mobilized as it was four years ago. If The Left isn't super riled up, then a lot of them won't vote. Many that would vote for Team Blue just aren't going to go through the hassle of it. The Right WILL show out. They'll wait in the long lines and take the day off work if need be.