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When the old be imploded. Didn’t UConn and UC and a 3rd school get to keep all the conferences tourney credits? The original 7 walked away from those credits and paid for the be name. Would seem odd that a few would breakaway to go to b12 with that in mind.
it would be completely surprising for the Big 12 to add non-football schools to its roster, They simply don't need them. The conference has a lucrative TV contract that is reliant on football; hence the pursuit of the 4 PAC 12 teams. Gonzaga et. al. do not increase the value of the contract or the conference in general. The PAC 12 is hanging by a thread and given that most of the networks are aligned with the Power 2 or 3, the PAC may have to wander into the hinterlands of ESPN+ and other secondary sports networks. Football rules the airwaves and drives all decisions. Basketball, outside of the NCAA tournament, is incidental.
So....
-I'm rather certain the Pac 12 is considering a deal with Apple that will make them a lot of money, but give them very little distribution.
-I'm also rather certain that the ACC and Pac 12 are discussing a (sort of) merger. The would remain two separate conferences for purposes of the NCAA, but would have a joint media partnership for purposes of TV/media deals.
-I'm not rather certain, but am PRETTY SURE the Big 12 is looking to expand, and expand BIG to either 18 or 20 members. I don' think this has really been in the press, but I believe they have reached out to six different Pac 12 schools, at least one ACC school (and perhaps more), and six "basketball" schools. Now, "reaching out" hardly constitutes being close to any sort of an agreement, but I think it is incorrect to just assume they wouldn't have any interest in basketball only schools for some of the reasons I mentioned in previous posts above.
-Now, what do I THINK is going to happen?? I have no idea. I can't even guess because there are too many moving parts. I agree that there is a lot of hand-wringing going on simply for the sake of hand wringing and a lot of people who are doing it just sort of feed off getting to whoop everyone into a frenzy like a lot of local weathermen like to do. But I also really do think that the Big 12 is actually legit looking to make some serious moves and like a kid who's selling magazines door to door is reaching out to anyone and everyone to try and get them to buy in.
I'll be a broken record - again - even though I should also resemble Captain Obvious doing so: it's all about our next media agreement.
Conversations have to be taking place about that right now, although they're a tad premature in terms of being able to arrive at final figures for it. We're probably a little over one year away from those conversations turning into negotiations for the final package. With that noted, all the people who know how the media calculus works are probably already modeling what it could/should end up looking like. I would have to think that the Big East's front office in NYC has a sense for where all this is headed for the next BE media agreement.
Then it will be about beauty being in the eye of the beholder of the moment - a Villanova, St. John's, etc. (i.e. whichever of our schools are being targeted by the Big12). Just remember one glaringly obvious and hyper-important thing: the question is what does any given school contribute to a new media agreement in terms of increasing the per school annual payout?
That's about it; that's almost the entire show right there. If the Big12 is already looking at $x million per year per member, can a new school be added with the result being an INCREASE IN THAT FIGURE FOR EVERY MEMBER? The bigger the existing annual payout per member, the taller the task in terms of adding any program that would be accretive from there.
I mentioned that that was about it. The rest of it would be about those targeted schools comparing the new BE deal to what is being made available by the Big 12, assuming timing and events allow for such a comparison. My sense is that there will not be a large enough difference for our targeted Big East members to break away, especially when considering the nature of the beast that is attempting to pull them away, as well as the geography involved.
The flipside to all this risk also is obvious: if the Big East in its current configuration of 11 members survives this threat, then we should be well positioned for at least another decade, but probably beyond even then, as we will certainly solidify our standing as the premier basketball-centric conference in the nation.
Speaking of next media agreement - just saw this:
"NEWS: Big East Commissioner Val Ackerman announces that the conference will be initiating talks about a renewal deal with media rights holder FOX Sports in the coming months."
https://twitter.com/John_Fanta/statu...23513842647040
Been wondering how Sean would take the news if the big East implodes (as predicted, not saying it’s a done deal just…certainly something to be worried about). It’s an interesting development if the Big12 was able to pull off a bball only tv contract. I assume that would be a move every other conference would try to pull off so maybe Big 10 or SEC would reach out to X. But I don’t think Sean will want to stay in a depleted Big East.
But obviously perfect world big East stays mostly intact. Losing just UConn is ok, they can be replaced. Losing nova, Uconn, +st johns would hurt. Just rambling here, I know.
The Big 12's media deal is already in place. It's $380 million a year for six years. ESPN has the first tier rights, and Fox has the second tier rights. The third tier rights can be expanded upon. That's what is important about their media deal. If they start a Big 12 Network in partnership with ESPN, then that would be the third tier of the media deal. The more markets the network can be distributed in on a non-premium tier (meaning if you have digital cable or satellite, people in certain cities don't have to pay more for it), they can collect a lot more money in distribution fees. They will (probably) get money from the cable and satellite providers for every single person that has the network available in their homes whether they would ever watch it or not. It makes sense that they'd want that network available in New York, and Philadelphia, and Phoenix, and Seattle, and Denver, and Salt Lake, and Chicago/Milwaukee. The reason I think they might be (and likely are) interested in Big East schools is for this reason. They want their network to be distributed in those markets, which would inflate the value of the TV deal. It doesn't matter if the schools play football or not so long as they can get the network distributed in those markets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xavier
Now, that's the Big 12 side of things. That doesn't mean that any Big East schools would want to go to the Big 12. But what I do think (and am actually reasonably sure of) is that the Big 12 has reached out to A LOT of schools, including multiple "basketball schools" in regards to expansion. Whether or not any of them are interested...I really have no way of knowing, and I'm guessing that's true for most people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by xudash
Sports illustrated (https://www.si.com/college/2023/03/0...ved-extinction ), from yesterday:
Quote:
Still, nothing is permanent in college sports, and that could affect the Big East’s successful rebuild. The Fox TV deal runs for two more years—and then what? The company has invested massively in college football now; does it still have money to spend on a basketball conference?
“No one needs to worry here,” Ackerman says. “Our value has been proven over and over.”
Is there a chance the Big East implodes? Did I miss something? I know there's always a chance but is this a reasonable possibility?Quote:
Originally Posted by Xavier
When I’m doubt, follow the money…..
The question I would have is, how much money would the BB only schools get from the B12 TV revenue? If it’s merely the money the B12 would get from the 3rd tier, is that enough to make them turn their back on the BE? IF I was one of the B12 schools that fielded a football team, I would be balking at letting a BB only school get any of that 380 plus million. It obviously IF the BB only schools can get a big payday out of moving to the B12 they will have to consider it very seriously. Follow the money.
I don’t think it’s going to happen, but I certainly won’t say there’s no chance. There’s always a chance.