Originally Posted by
xudash
A slight refocusing on the topic, given that NIL is most likely here to stay in some form.
What are outcomes/realities that could bring sanity to the NIL environment (if I am allowed to presume that NIL is here to stay, but is operating at a more feverish level out of the gate at this point)?
I see two potential governing possibilities:
1. Supply and demand of available talent; and
2. Funding fatigue on the part of NIL sponsors who don't always realize their perceived/stated objectives with the NIL-funded player.
Re #1: As has been pointed out, there has always been a stratification of talent in the sport with the most talented going to the bigger programs, and with most of those players, if not all of them receiving "support" for choosing those schools. Are we at a place in the pecking order that will still allow us to operate effectively with a sufficient talent pool for Sean? Does the supply of available talent at the level we require it outpace the demand for NIL-targeted players we may want? I guess we could draw conclusions from rating services lists, etc., but part of this is complicated by the amount of oxygen that football playing schools are going to suck away from each other as they chase football players on the NIL side. Yes, bigger schools, so more NIL co-op space, but still, they have to make room for at least 22 starters on both sides of the ball for football. I don't have an answer for this, obviously. I'm just wondering if the issue is abated somewhat by having enough of a talent pool to begin with, and then having a little competitive relief from the fact that the "P5" crowd has other funding issues to address.
Re #2: Here is where I may be naive, but how does a SPONSOR achieve true marketing value from a kid who may only be around for one, two or a few years? As I've noted before, an 18-year old or a 22-year old basketball player isn't going to sell me a car. Beyond that, what if my INVESTMENT breaks an ankle or something and is left sitting on the bench watching the game? Corporate NIL deals. Publicly traded companies spending this way in their marketing departments? NCAAT sponsors maybe - look at AT&T. But that is a very few people benefitting from that one. Privately-held company that makes a lot of money? So you make a lot of money - 7-digits a year - but are you going to be willing to go out of pocket for this stuff over multiple years to the tune of six-digit installments over those years? Perhaps, if you're one of the avid boosters. Perhaps not, or perhaps it gets old after a while as you assess the value of the NIL "investment" and other ways of supporting your school. Here is where I get back to worrying mostly about the collectives as I understand them. Big schools with huge alumni bases that PayPal there way online through $5 and $10 here and there over 40,000 people. Wait. That tops out at $400k. Good for ony player for the "U."
Now I'm babbling. The question remains: what could bring sanity to this area. Who is paying for C. J. Stroud's scheduled maintenance calls at the Bentley dealership? Well, bad example.