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Originally Posted by JTG
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No.Quote:
Originally Posted by JTG
If true that ended up being a colossal waste of money for tjd and edeyQuote:
Originally Posted by JTG
Depends. Obviously based solely off the tournament- yes. But 900K for the national player of the year, being a top 5 team most of the year while winning your conference and a 1 seed? I think you’d see a ton of people sign up for that. I’d imagine the value to the university is more than 900K.
But it’s certainly more difficult to buy a championship in bball with the one and done structure. So it becomes interesting what people are willing to pay for…..at one point I thought the randomness of the tournament would cause the NIL to even out more but I’m not so sure anymore.
It's ultimately going to ruin college sports for a long time. The comparison to MLB is a good one. And that sport is dying from a national interest level.
Teams need continuity to build skill sets for players and identity for fans. Fat cats need pride in the results they pay for. These do not mix.
Players will be focused on their financial success at too young of age versus educating themselves and getting better, while still being a kid.
This is a total mess.
I would imagine TT paid Colby which is what the NIL was designed to allow. Also, jersey, cards, etc sales.Quote:
Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z
We’ll see either way how the “direct payments” pan out.
Winner!Quote:
Originally Posted by sirthought
A lot of great insights put into this so far.
I've edited this to clean it up. The focus is still on our best guesses, given what we know and presume what might develop, for what Xavier basketball will look like 36 to 60 months down the road.
We are dealing with NIL and collectives, primarily, as I believe we have the other key elements of the program under firm control.
In fact, Xavier's national rep continues to build and will only get stronger with Miller at the helm. And the Cintas Center truly is one of the great on campus venues in the nation.
A key element - conference affiliation - couldn't be much stronger in our case. In fact, as a couple of recent articles have clearly noted, the conference has never been stronger since its reboot, and it is actually poised for preeminence moving into the next decade. Yes, things can go haywire, but there is nothing to indicate that is possible at this time.
We all know a key piece here is the next media agreement - the "market" will have its say. We can only hope that the conference's current resume and Val and Company find a way to get it done. Imagine Xavier doubling or doubling+ its intake from the media deal, while the conference manages to continue to chalk up about 10 Units of NCAAT goodness each season.
This is an important point: if the media agreement moves towards $7mm - $8mm in payouts per school per year, and we continue to chalk up strong performances in the NCAAT, then direct pay capability, if it comes about, will be a strength for Xavier, as I see it. Take one of the incremental million dollars and fund the payroll account for basketball. This would be a good time to point out that I'm not in favor of wrecking "amatuer sports" at the collegiate level. I'm only focusing on our relative positioning should certain events occur. This is one time it pays not to have to feed a stadium with 100,000 seats in it.
So, we're back to these relatively new two external factors: NIL and Collectives. Here is where it is important to point out a point that was made on this board earlier: some people may give to a school, but they may give to their specific area only and not opt to provide additional funding to such things as athletic collectives or NIL deals for athletes. That is a key point to keep in mind. Individual contributors have their limits. And some, who otherwise may not be all that limited, may simply be philosophically opposed to contribute to a collective or pursue a NIL deal for an athlete if they are otherwise in position to do so.
In either case, when looked at from the vantage point of competition, there is some general bad news and general good news:
- Bad News: "P5 Land Grant" universities that have large alumni bases and greater NIL reach + their media deals.
- Good News: Those same schools have football and more athletes in general to cover.
I used Ohio State as an example. Let's agree that the school represents the high-end of college athletics. It has an alumni base of 500,000, according to its alumni website. All alumni are considered members of the association upon graduation. This includes individuals who have earned associate's, bachelor's, graduate, professional, or honorary degrees from Ohio State, as well as medical resident graduates of the university. Alumni who give any amount to support any area of Ohio State are recognized as alumni donors. Alumni who commit to a monthly gift of at least $10 or an annual gift of $150 or more are recognized as life donors.
By comparison, the UC Alumni Association counts 332,000 alumni across the United States and throughout the world. Probably all schools/divisions of the university, similar to Ohio State.
The thing to keep in mind with both of those aggregate totals is that most of the giving probably comes from the bachelor degree crowd - 4 years, immersed in the culture, football, etc.
BTW, Xavier counts 76,000 alumni in its network.
Some Data on Alumni Giving Rates
Now let's check some data:
The average alumni giving rate during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 academic years was 8%, according to data that 1,451 ranked colleges reported to U.S. News in an annual survey.
But some schools reported much higher numbers, with the 10 colleges at the top seeing two-year average alumni giving rates of 44% and higher. If you look at the Top 25 US Universities With The Most Powerful Alumni Networks, you'll mostly find the upper echelon academically; it isn't comprised of a list of a bunch of land grant universities out of the P5 that focus on football, with a few notable exceptions.
Public University Giving: Alumni giving accounts for approximately 23% of annual funds raised by U.S. universities (Council for Advancement and Support of Education). Other funds come from foundations (33%), non-alumni individuals (17%), corporations (13%), and other organizations (14%). Note: probably need to keep that non-alumni crowd in mind (e.g. the ND "subway" fans).
Key insight: In 2021, total giving to U.S. universities grew from $49.5 billion to $52.9 billion, a 5.1 percent increase after adjusting for inflation (Inside Higher Ed). While this is certainly good news, it’s worth noting that the rate of alumni who choose to donate is not seeing a proportional increase. Rather, this increase is the result of larger gifts from a few wealthy philanthropists, and not necessarily smaller gifts from a large body of donors.
In fact, the average alumni giving rate during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 academic years was 8% (U.S. News). That means that 92% of alums aren’t making regular financial gifts to their alma maters.
Back to the Ohio State as an Example for Collectives Potential
This is an effort to swag some numbers for a collective:
500,000* alumni x 8% x $50.00** = $2,000,000. Now, let's remember that they take football very seriously in Columbus.
* - Used the entire alumni base to keep it conservative.
** - On top of the $150.00 to qualify as a "Life Member" (I AM swagging here!).
Ohio State on the NIL side:
A total of 220 student-athletes have engaged in 608 reported NIL activities with a total compensation value of $2.98 million. All three figures rank No. 1 nationally, according to Opendorse, the cutting edge services company hired by Ohio State to help its student-athletes with education and resource opportunities to maximize their NIL earning potential.
https://footballscoop.com/news/ohio-state-nil-earnings
So, Where Do We Possibly Stand
We've been told that we're "okay" or "reasonably competitive" when it comes to our NIL sources. I hope so. We primarily have MBB and a few other key athletes to feed, but at least we don't have an entire D1A football team to "fund."
What could Xavier's collectives effort end up looking like:
76,000* alumni x 12% x $100.00** = $900,000.
* - Full number for consistency.
** - I'll assume we're a little more well healed across the board.
We can't fight what Miami did. We can't go toe-to-toe with the SEC and B1G schools, in particular. We can't go toe-to-toe with a number of the other "P5's" as well. But it doesn't look like we're going to get boxed out over the next 12 to 24 months as the NIL mess, in particular, sorts itself out (I hope).
If it does go full-on pay-for-play, I sense that we'll be very well positioned, so long as we get good news on the media agreement and the NCAAT Units keep pouring in. BTW, I'm not saying we'll get aggressive in the area. I just want us to have the capability - the option - to pull the trigger where and when needed, if at all.
The wet blanket over all of this is the piercing of the amatuer vail. The rah-rah, "go college!" aspect is dissolving right before our eyes. Any kid who comes to Xavier, contributes to our basketball success, earns his degree, and actually does that over 4 years should get a statue out front, because we aren't going to have to worry about doing that very often.
I believe we're going to be okay after having to navigate a rocky road. I hope and trust Sean has enough fuel in the tank to power through all this as he continues to do what he fundamentally loves to do at the place he loves to do it. We have to be ready for change. I think we're set up well to handle it.
That’s interesting on your wife’s school. My wife has a similar attitude towards UDump, as she is grad. Our oldest daughter had a very pathetic scholarship offer to attend. Mrs Eggs has a very bad taste towards her former school. She will not give them another dime.
Ironically, she told me the other day we should give more to X? What? Of course I always listen to my wife! Wink wink…
I find it insane that in spite of the insane cost to attend college, we collectively somehow also just GIVE 8B a year to universities?
By the way, if everything goes as planned after my tech company finishes its IPO, I will probably be in a position to give about $5M a year to the NIL fund.
Unfortunately, I don’t actually have a company…..YET. Or an idea for a company….YET. But otherwise, I’m on track.
I enjoyed reading this. Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by noteggs
Poor VD