Covid-19

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

Agree Bob. I should have put in the comments that the models were in fact based upon mitigation actions like Social Distancing......and they are still wrong...by miles!!!

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So at first when the models were radically off, they did underestimated the effectiveness of social distancing. They were adjusted based on actual data, but were still far off. Then again and again, but are still are off.

Why is this? There aren't many variables that go into an epidemiological model. The answer has been provided by numerous scientific studies released in the last few weeks:
1) The virus does not spread nearly as easy as we were initially led to believe. The majority of spread takes place when people are in confined spaces with low ventilation for prolonged periods - think subways, elevators, hospital rooms, old/poorly ventilated work spaces, and housing. The virus isn't lurking on items at grocery stores or blowing in the air outside.
2) The majority of the cases are minor or asymptomatic - so it's far less deadly. Some estimates have the infection fatality rate comparable to the flu, except for the vulnerable.

Until these findings are reflected in forecast models, they will continue to be off, and so will our policy.

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Originally Posted by xavierj

No daycare, no bars, no restaurants, no gyms and no pools in KY, at least until after May 25th. I think you can go to church starting May 25th. End of phase 1. Phase 1 begins March 11th. Beshear is bonkers.

https://www.wlwt.com/article/kentuck...-plan/32321385

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Sorry, I meant iowa, but yes beshear is a doofus. When are these stupid daily press conferences going to end? Seriously.

At least he's letting Churchill Downs get going again!

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

Add to that, Acton stands there with this Dog Sincere face and gives you that solicitous tone like "I know what we're going through is hard" garbage and people, and the milquetoast Ohio media just lap it up with no tough questions. I guess because she's so "Sincere". Sorry Amy. Sincerity doesn't pay the bills.



Yeah the models sucked, like I've been pointing out for weeks, but DeWine and Acton keep using them as justification for this lockdown. And like I said above, no milquetoast media member calls them on it. It's amazing the incompetence in all of the media now, both national & local.

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Incompetent? Perhaps you misunderstand their intent. Maybe they are quite good at doing what they are doing.

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Originally Posted by principal

Incompetent? Perhaps you misunderstand their intent. Maybe they are quite good at doing what they are doing.

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Who, the media here in Ohio? They haven't asked a tough question yet. Just like they never ask tough questions to the sports team leaders in this state.
How else could the Bengals and Browns get away with murder for so long?
I appreciate the nice people in this state but sometimes leaders have to be called out.

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

So at first when the models were radically off, they did underestimated the effectiveness of social distancing. They were adjusted based on actual data, but were still far off. Then again and again, but are still are off.

Why is this? There aren't many variables that go into an epidemiological model. The answer has been provided by numerous scientific studies released in the last few weeks:
1) The virus does not spread nearly as easy as we were initially led to believe. The majority of spread takes place when people are in confined spaces with low ventilation for prolonged periods - think subways, elevators, hospital rooms, old/poorly ventilated work spaces, and housing. The virus isn't lurking on items at grocery stores or blowing in the air outside.
2) The majority of the cases are minor or asymptomatic - so it's far less deadly. Some estimates have the infection fatality rate comparable to the flu, except for the vulnerable.

Until these findings are reflected in forecast models, they will continue to be off, and so will our policy.

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This

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Originally Posted by principal

Incompetent? Perhaps you misunderstand their intent. Maybe they are quite good at doing what they are doing.

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I see what you said there. Well said.

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Originally Posted by xu82

I obviously can’t speak for the “average person”, but I think the models just sucked. Period. Whether incompetence or to scare us into behaving. Sadly, we have too many fools surrounding us.

Still, I think being responsible about wearing a mask at the grocery store and avoiding lining up 3 deep at the bar for happy hour make sense.

Encouraging news about maybe a treatment and possibly a vaccine lately, so let’s pray for the best so we can bounce back.

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Well put. I agree with virtually all of these statements.

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Originally Posted by GoMuskies

Seems rough, but also probably necessary. There should be some sort of process for people in vulnerable categories to seek an exception, though.

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Also agree. You will have a lot of people using the "I'm risking my life by going to work" argument, but a lot of people (Grocery store workers for example) have been working the whole time.

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

So at first when the models were radically off, they did underestimated the effectiveness of social distancing. They were adjusted based on actual data, but were still far off. Then again and again, but are still are off.

Why is this? There aren't many variables that go into an epidemiological model. The answer has been provided by numerous scientific studies released in the last few weeks:
1) The virus does not spread nearly as easy as we were initially led to believe. The majority of spread takes place when people are in confined spaces with low ventilation for prolonged periods - think subways, elevators, hospital rooms, old/poorly ventilated work spaces, and housing. The virus isn't lurking on items at grocery stores or blowing in the air outside.
2) The majority of the cases are minor or asymptomatic - so it's far less deadly. Some estimates have the infection fatality rate comparable to the flu, except for the vulnerable.

Until these findings are reflected in forecast models, they will continue to be off, and so will our policy.

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It seems like it might be more about #2 at this point vs #1, particularly based on some of the results from antibody testing we have seen. Which would be a good thing. We are at the point where we need to find a way to open things back up, even if cautiously.

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Originally Posted by muskiefan82

I see what you said there. Well said.

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Have you ever read John Taylor Gatto on the state of education in the US? He makes the same point. The education system in this county isn't failing, it is doing exactly what it is supposed to be doing. In addition, I would argue that the fear-based reaction to this virus is evidence of his claim.

I saw some reports of infrastructure work being done in some European cities during this time...I guess around bike lanes, pedestrian street creations, etc.
I wonder if our habits will change at all, especially in the denser urban environments after this time of low auto usage.