Path to the dance

[MHettel]

Ok, there will inevitably be a response like “none of this matters, just win”. And that’s a viable response…..basically today only.

We’re 5-5 with 10 games left. So yeah, “just win out” put us at 15-5 and we’re a lock. But are you betting on that? I’m not.

We’re gonna take some losses down the stretch. And the more we take, the more “help” we’re gonna need.

I’m just trying to figure out exactly what “help” looks like.

Marquette and SJU have commanding 8-1 records to lead the conference. They both play today and appear to be favorites (SJU vs GT, MU vs Butler). Absent a complete meltdown, these teams are dancing. We split with MU and lost 2X to the Johnies.

We’re actually competing against Creighton (7-2) UConn (6-3) Nova (5-5), and GT (4-5). I include GT but not Providence because we have a loss vs GT and another would give them the upper hand in the event of a tie.

I’m assuming DePaul, SHU, and Butler are out of the mix entirely.

Peeking at the teaming matchups for the teams we are competing with:

First of all, let’s just root for Marquette and SJU, period. We cannot reasonably catch them and they can assist us by beating some of these teams in the middle of the pack. Creighton and UConn are positioned “above” us in the pack, which would make us 5th in a conference that is likely to be 4 bids, with an equal chance of getting 3 as it is getting 5. Objective #1 is to pass UConn or Creighton. Root for one and against the other? Is it that simple? Well, rooting against Creighton is.

We play them twice and we need wins and we need them to have losses. In addition to us, their remaining schedule includes Marquette, UConn and SJU, (in a row) but that’s it. Assume we beat them 2x and they take care of business against the bottom and they would sit at 13 wins before playing UConn, SJU & MU. If they win just one of those they are likely in with 14 wins. It is ESSENTIAL that Creighton takes a bad loss or 3 down the stretch. But NOT from Nova who is still in the mix. Root AGAINST Creighton, except against Nova. If we don’t win both games vs Creighton, at that point root for them against UConn.

So let’s go to Nova. We beat them once, and need to do it again. Nova has remaining games against CU, SJU, UConn, and MU. Also, they play GT, so that’s a game we have to pick a side for. Let’s have Creighton beat Nova and Nova beat UConn. And also GT beat Nova. Assume SJU and Marquette pin them with an L. It’s essential that we beat them. They finish with 10 wins and have zero shot given their non-con performance. Actually maybe we want Nova to beat Creighton. If all else falls into place, they only 11 wins and that not enough. And an extra loss for Creighton can’t hurt. But we need Nova OUT. And we also MUST beat them.

Let’s look at GT. First of all, we need to beat them. Again, we can’t be 0-2 against a fellow bubble team and expect to make the dance while they don’t. GT is 4-5 though, so we’ve got box out position right now. They have remaining difficult games against SJU, Creighton, UConn, Marquette and Nova. There are 5 easy wins out there for them which gets them to 9 before the 5 I mention plus us. They win 3 of 6 of the difficult games and they are in the discussion. I already have GT beating Nova. Let’s do our job and get the win vs GT and then hope SJU and MU do as well. GT could wind up on the bubble still, but it feels like we could be positioned on the better part of the bubble.

UConn. Can they miss the dance? They are 6-3 with 4 games remains against SJU and MU. They play Creighton too. It’s actually in our interest for UConn to beat Creighton unless we lose to Creighton. We might need UConn to take a bad loss. But not against Nova or GT.

I’m a lot more sober after having done this. It’s very muddled. We not a 5 bid league and we tied for 5th. Of course winning out would solve all our problems, but it’s not reasonable. We definitely have the easiest schedule remaining of the potential dancers. We can probably take 2 losses, but it feels like the 2 Creighton games are must wins. probably Nova and GT as well. That’s our next 3 opponents.

Will be interesting to see how it evolves over the second half of the conference slate

[OTRMUSKIE]

I think 21-11 gets us in. So 8-2 and then a miss in BEAST puts us at 21-11 13-8 which should be enough. Loss at Creighton and prob Nova and then win remaining. That is very doable and should be enough but last year St John’s thought that too.

[xubrew]

If X lands on the bubble, it's unlikely that any other bubble team would have two wins that come anywhere close to the caliber of at Marquette and UConn at home. In the last seven days Xavier has gone from outside the bubble to inside of it, and will likely remain there so long as they can hold serve. In other words, avoid losing to teams outside the bubble.

While the loss at Saint John's did suck, and it REALLY did because I cannot fucking stand Rick Pitino, Xavier still looked very much like an NCAA Tournament team in that game. For much of the season they haven't. Whatever needed fixing seems to have gotten fixed.

[Xavier]

I’ve seen a few “bracketologist” suggest big east might have 5 in play, actually.

Bartorvik breakdown: currently has us finishing 11-9 (losing at Creighton, at nova, at butler. Even though projected to win the others, it must be assuming a loss somewhere to finish 11-9?) and being the 2nd team out. But if you modify it:
If we only lose those 3 games: we’d be in at 12-8 46% of the time.

Flip one of them- we’d be a lock at 13-7. It’s why I think if we beat Creighton Wednesday we are going to be in pretty good shape. I think we will end up beating nova or butler on the road. And I think we win out at home.

[xubrew]

I’ve seen a few “bracketologist” suggest big east might have 5 in play, actually.

Bartorvik breakdown: currently has us finishing 11-9 (losing at Creighton, at nova, at butler. Even though projected to win the others, it must be assuming a loss somewhere to finish 11-9?) and being the 2nd team out. But if you modify it:
If we only lose those 3 games: we’d be in at 12-8 46% of the time.

Flip one of them- we’d be a lock at 13-7. It’s why I think if we beat Creighton Wednesday we are going to be in pretty good shape. I think we will end up beating nova or butler on the road. And I think we win out at home.

Seven days ago I probably would not have agreed. But today I agree completely.

Not to state what's overly obvious, but Xavier is playing tons better!! They followed up a stretch where we had lost six out of seven, and have now won four out of five with wins over UConn and Marquette during that stretch, and the only loss was in OT on the road at Saint John's.

[Xville]

Go 8-2. Win either @nova or @creighton to pick up one more q1 and not lose to DePaul, seton hall. That would do it from everything I’ve seen. Hopefully, UConn gets mcneeley back and starts winning again to make that a q1.

[MHettel]

Go 8-2. Win either @nova or @creighton to pick up one more q1 and not lose to DePaul, seton hall. That would do it from everything I’ve seen. Hopefully, UConn gets mcneeley back and starts winning again to make that a q1.

But if UConn and Creighton keep winning, we’re 5th. Is this a 5 bid conference?

I wouldn’t feel confident on selection Sunday…

[Xville]

Other than UConn winning enough to get back to a q1, I don’t care what anyone else does in the conference in terms of what it means to x.

Well I take that back. I don’t want a bid stealer winning the be tournament either

[xukeith]

I think X needs another quality win either at Creighton or at Nova.
No bad losses help too.

[waggy]

If X finishes 4th in the BE, which I think is reasonable, they would play the 5th place team in the BE tourney. In that case it'll be either UConn or Creighton.

[xuwillie]

Think we can go 7-3 as long as one of the losses isn't to Depaul or Seton Hall. And win one game in the tournament

[XUMIOH12]

But if UConn and Creighton keep winning, we’re 5th. Is this a 5 bid conference?

I wouldn’t feel confident on selection Sunday…

It's a 5 bid conference if Xavier plays their way in. The other 4 are in, barring epic collapses. No other teams in the conference have much of a shot at an at large. Georgetown and Villanova killed their chances in the out of conference portion of the season.

[XUMIOH12]

Think we can go 7-3 as long as one of the losses isn't to Depaul or Seton Hall. And win one game in the tournament

7-3 is probably right on the cut line, might depend who the Ws/Ls are against. 8-2 and Xavier should be in.

[muskieindent]

That loss to the Clifton school is starting to look worse and worse. Get up to 21 wins by the end of the BE tournament and I will feel pretty good.

[XUMIOH12]

That loss to the Clifton school is starting to look worse and worse. Get up to 21 wins by the end of the BE tournament and I will feel pretty good.

Yeah that one hurts. Game at TCU too, that is a borderline Q1 game. A few games like that this season, where even just pulling out 1 of them could end up making or breaking things.

[Xville]

That loss to the Clifton school is starting to look worse and worse. Get up to 21 wins by the end of the BE tournament and I will feel pretty good.

That one and TCU are killers. Had X won those two, we'd be sitting in pretty darn good shape with how the rest of the schedule looks.

[muskieindent]

That one and TCU are killers. Had X won those two, we'd be sitting in pretty darn good shape with how the rest of the schedule looks.

Outside of SJU here and the Michigan losses ,we had a chance to win those other games.2 more wins would be huge.Gives us little margin for error the rest of the way

[drudy23]

Team can't get complacent and assume they can just walk through an easier second half schedule. All BE road games are tough.

Go into every game with your hair on fire.

[Fireball]

I think if we can get another Q1 win - and at this point that's at Nova and at Creighton - not lose to a team we shouldn't, like Seton Hall or Depaul, and get to 12 conference wins, then I think it will be difficult to keep us out.

If we don't get all three of those done in the next 10 games, then we'll be sweating it a bit. But - this is a different team after that St. John's loss. They're playing like the team I think we all through we were going to see at season.

[Xavier]

I actually don’t think they are at all. I expected an explosive offense that would only win by scoring more bc the D would be so bad. They’ve transformed into a defensive team. It’s been impressive really. I agree with drudy. Basically every road game is tough. Defense travels though, it has to stay the focal point.

If we are fighting it out on selection Sunday with one or two other teams I wonder if Freemantle being out against two Q1 teams helps at all. I’ve heard they take into account injuries but that’s usually for more than a 2 game stretch. Just so happened to be two of the biggest games of the year

[Xville]

Team can't get complacent and assume they can just walk through an easier second half schedule. All BE road games are tough.

Go into every game with your hair on fire.

True, road games in conference are brutal no matter the opponent. It'd be nice to steal one Wednesday to give X some breathing room. @ Butler especially won't be easy, no matter how much they suck.

[SkyWalker]

Just win the Big East tournament!

[Xville]

Just win the Big East tournament!

Avoid sju and I like our chances just as much as anyone else

[MHettel]

Not a good week.

5th place in the BE is our destiny….at best.

Creighton and UConn are solidly above us. MU and SJU are outside of reach.

We have 1 loss left to spares. 2 and we are out. 1 and maybe still out.

Reality.

[xukeith]

Not a good week.

5th place in the BE is our destiny….at best.

Creighton and UConn are solidly above us. MU and SJU are outside of reach.

We have 1 loss left to spares. 2 and we are out. 1 and maybe still out.

Reality.

If UConn loses 4 of their remaining games and X runs table, X could be in 4th place in BE. Not likely or probable but there is that lower quality of remainng BE teams X has left.

[Xville]

UConn now up to #32 in the net. We want UConn to keep winning, we want Creighton to keep winning to maybe make that second game with them a q1 (currently 37) It’s been a good week for that. Quad 1 and 2 wins are way more important to the committee than standings, in fact standings aren’t even a consideration

[MHettel]

UConn now up to #32 in the net. We want UConn to keep winning, we want Creighton to keep winning to maybe make that second game with them a q1 (currently 37) It’s been a good week for that. Quad 1 and 2 wins are way more important to the committee than standings, in fact standings aren’t even a consideration

Of course you have to weigh in while missing the point. The 4 teams ahead of us in the standings are a combined 36-8. The “worst” of those teams is UConn at 8-3.

We stand at 5-6.

The top 4 have 8 games remaining against each other. UConn has 4 games against the other 3. The best case scenario is that UConn loses all of them. That puts them at 7 losses. We can’t reasonably expect them to also drop one against the bottom of the league to 8 losses.

There is a scenario where these top 4 teams just spread out the losses across themselves and they could finish with 16 or 15 wins each.

We have 9 games left. Even if we win out, we end up with 14 wins. And I’m certainly not counting on that. But if we did, then we finish 3-5 against the top 4, and a game behind in 5th. If we lose to Creighton it gets worse. 2-6 against the top and probably 2 games back of the 4th place team.

The only way we sneak into the top 4 is with a total meltdown by UConn. 2 time defending national champion UConn by the way.

And here you are, rooting for UConn and telling us about the “rules” the committee uses.

Missing the big picture, as usual.

The optics of being a couple games back in 5th place with a lousy head to head record against the top 4 is a firm “no” for us when the committee makes their decision.

An 8-1 finish gives us a pulse. 7-2 and we’re done. 9-0 probably gets us in,at least in part due to the hot finish.

Plan Z is that we start rooting for Nova and GTown, etc to get us a few scalps against UConn, CU and Marquette.

[Xavier]

If UConn and Creighton get to Q1 wins (beating Creighton at home) it’s better for the resume. You think committee looks at a conference and Says “we think X amount of teams should get in” and then just picks from the standings list that number? So last year they looked at BE and said “we think 3 teams should get in” and that’s why SH was out? Then looked at the mountain west and said “yeah we need 6 teams from there”

It’s an interesting theory, I’d give you that.

Getting more Q1 wins is better for the resume. I don’t think that’s even a question. Better wins=better resume. Is it better for Creighton and UConn to dominate here on out and end up with 3 top 15 wins, or them to flame out and finish tied for 4th in the BE with one top 25 win?

[Section 200]

Since 4 plays 5 in the first game at MSG, aren't they essentially the same?

[Xville]

Of course you have to weigh in while missing the point. The 4 teams ahead of us in the standings are a combined 36-8. The “worst” of those teams is UConn at 8-3.

We stand at 5-6.

The top 4 have 8 games remaining against each other. UConn has 4 games against the other 3. The best case scenario is that UConn loses all of them. That puts them at 7 losses. We can’t reasonably expect them to also drop one against the bottom of the league to 8 losses.

There is a scenario where these top 4 teams just spread out the losses across themselves and they could finish with 16 or 15 wins each.

We have 9 games left. Even if we win out, we end up with 14 wins. And I’m certainly not counting on that. But if we did, then we finish 3-5 against the top 4, and a game behind in 5th. If we lose to Creighton it gets worse. 2-6 against the top and probably 2 games back of the 4th place team.

The only way we sneak into the top 4 is with a total meltdown by UConn. 2 time defending national champion UConn by the way.

And here you are, rooting for UConn and telling us about the “rules” the committee uses.

Missing the big picture, as usual.

The optics of being a couple games back in 5th place with a lousy head to head record against the top 4 is a firm “no” for us when the committee makes their decision.

An 8-1 finish gives us a pulse. 7-2 and we’re done. 9-0 probably gets us in,at least in part due to the hot finish.

Plan Z is that we start rooting for Nova and GTown, etc to get us a few scalps against UConn, CU and Marquette.

Your point is completely invalid because conference standings don’t matter when it comes to the committee picking teams. You can keep saying it does, doesn’t make it true. Multiple people over multiple years have point blank told you what’s important to the committe. You choose to ignore it.


Per usual, you are wrong but obsess over things that don’t matter. Paul fritchner and Adam Baum who by the way know way more than you, have both agreed with me. You root for creighton and UConn the rest of the way, making them quad 1 wins when x beats Creighton . That’s what matters, not whatever gibberish you are rolling with.

[Xville]

Since 4 plays 5 in the first game at MSG, aren't they essentially the same?

Yes but hett is trying to act like conference standings matter to the committee picking teams. X will be judged angainst the other bubble teams, not by where they are in conference standings. Everyone knows that, except for hett apparently

[MHettel]

Since 4 plays 5 in the first game at MSG, aren't they essentially the same?

In what sense?

4 finished above 5 in the standings. Then they play each other at MSG. But I’m not thinking of it that way.

I’d like to lock up a bid before MSG. Next best scenario is to get a win or 2 at MSG to secure a bid. In no way do I want our tourney prospects to rest on winning the BET.

Also, the top 4 teams will ultimately play each opponent twice for a total of 12 games. We’re halfway through the season and they have only played 4 of them. Once these guys get into the back half of the schedule they will ALL get a pop in their SOS. And it will have a compounding effect. If they don’t drop any games beyond the ones against each other, they can finish 64-16 overall.

In spite of the committee not directly using the standings, I don’t want to be in a spot where the league has 4 no doubt NCAA teams and then suddenly we’re a couple games back and haven’t held our own against the top tier.

What you REALLy want this time of year is to control your own destiny. We can afford one loss and still have hope on selection Sunday. But it doesn’t make us a lock. If we lose more than 1, then we need some help. No longer in our own hands

[Xville]

No team in the history of the tournament has gotten in an at large bid with only 1 quad 1 win. Obviously the metric is very new, but that’s why x needs to root for UConn and Creighton the rest of the way. X needs the quad 1 wins. That’s of utmost importance, not standings in the conference. Obviously x needs at the very least to go 7-2, and probably 8-1 to feel safe. UConn and Creighton winning yesterday doesn’t change that, it was good that they won, we need them too.

Relying on nova to stay a quad 1 is not a great strategy. They are at 60 now and most likely will have 4-5 more losses. Staying above that #75 mark may prove difficult for them.

[Three Point Pete]

Relying on nova to stay a quad 1 is not a great strategy. They are at 60 now and most likely will have 4-5 more losses. Staying above that #75 mark may prove difficult for them.

Nova has a favorable schedule. They got Marq. at home, and DePaul, the Hall, Providence and Georgetown on the road. Maybe they only lose to X, St.John and Yukon.

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

[MHettel]

No team in the history of the tournament has gotten in an at large bid with only 1 quad 1 win. Obviously the metric is very new, but that’s why x needs to root for UConn and Creighton the rest of the way. X needs the quad 1 wins. That’s of utmost importance, not standings in the conference. Obviously x needs at the very least to go 7-2, and probably 8-1 to feel safe. UConn and Creighton winning yesterday doesn’t change that, it was good that they won, we need them too.

Relying on nova to stay a quad 1 is not a great strategy. They are at 60 now and most likely will have 4-5 more losses. Staying above that #75 mark may prove difficult for them.

The “Q system” or whatever it’s called is based on the RPI. It’s just whether you have wins or losses against teams (home/away/neutral) in certain RPI strata.

It’s not rocket science….and neither is the RPI itself.

Warren Nolan was the following real time RPIs for these BE teams: SJU 16, MU 19, CU 29, UConn 62, XU 72.

If it’s the same RPI as the past it’s calculated as 25% of your own record, 50% of your opponents record, and 25% of your opponents opponents.

The fact that our top 4 teams have a disproportionate number of games against each other will have a positive impact on the second and third factors of their RPI.

Warren Nolan also has a predicted RPI which I assume just means he projects the remaing games and then finalizes the RPI. In that version it goes like this: SJU 18, MU 20, CU 22, UConn 47. That’s a net gain of 19 spots, basically due to the “incestual” effect of these teams all playing each other and getting the SOS bump.

XU on the other hand drops to 93….a drop of 21 spots.

Our current record is 13-9 with an SOS of 47. Our final record by Warren Nolan is projected to be 19-12 with an SOS of 83. So he’s saying we finish 6-3.

Think through this. Currently 25% of our RPI is based on our 13-9 record. That’s a 59% wining percentage. And our projected Winning % is 61.3% so THAT portion of our RPI is actually going to go UP in his prediction. Which means all of the drop in our RPI is due to the weak schedule ahead. All the tough games are already in our RPI. It’s downhill from here unfortunately.

You can do crude exercise and assume we go 7-2, 8-1, or 9-0 over our last games and simply recalc our winning % and therefore determine the impact to our raw RPI number.


7-2 adds .008 to our RPI. 8-1 adds .015. 9-0 adds .030.

Warren Nolan doest give the raw RPI value, but team rankings does. The current #93 team has a value of .545. Add on more win to THAT score and it becomes .553. Good for #79. 2 more wins takes you to #77. And 3 more wins (9-0) gets you to #57. That’s just an estimate….but it’s also realistic. Our remaining schedule will potentially outweigh, in a negative manner, the positive impact of a very strong finish.

Of course now I’ll get the standard push back that the committee doesn’t directly use RPI anymore. And that can be a true statement. What can also be true is that in spite on being directly used as selection criteria the RPI can be used as an incredibly accurate predictor of what the committee WILL do.

I think the 9-0 scenario gets us in for ending on a winning streak and it makes Freemantles absence seem like the main cause of our January swoon. 8-1 and we are not in good RPI territory historically. We have to beat Creighton in that situation. In fact we have to beat Creighton in every situation. 7-2 and we’re out.

Razor thin.

I still think we need to close that gap between the top 4 in the Big East and us. At a glance it would be nice to look at the standings of the Big East and conclude that the Top 5 in the conference are separated from the rest of the league.

[Xavier]

I thought the q system is based off of the NET? The ncaa moved from the rpi to the NET, which was an updated more in depth ranking system. Is the above numbers based off of the old RPI or the NET?

Really not trying to be an ass I just don’t know if they are different at all or if the q system is based off old rpi even though ncaa doesn’t use that tool. And like I said it might basically be the same (NET/RPI).

[Xville]

The “Q system” or whatever it’s called is based on the RPI. It’s just whether you have wins or losses against teams (home/away/neutral) in certain RPI strata.

It’s not rocket science….and neither is the RPI itself.

Warren Nolan was the following real time RPIs for these BE teams: SJU 16, MU 19, CU 29, UConn 62, XU 72.

If it’s the same RPI as the past it’s calculated as 25% of your own record, 50% of your opponents record, and 25% of your opponents opponents.

The fact that our top 4 teams have a disproportionate number of games against each other will have a positive impact on the second and third factors of their RPI.

Warren Nolan also has a predicted RPI which I assume just means he projects the remaing games and then finalizes the RPI. In that version it goes like this: SJU 18, MU 20, CU 22, UConn 47. That’s a net gain of 19 spots, basically due to the “incestual” effect of these teams all playing each other and getting the SOS bump.

XU on the other hand drops to 93….a drop of 21 spots.

Our current record is 13-9 with an SOS of 47. Our final record by Warren Nolan is projected to be 19-12 with an SOS of 83. So he’s saying we finish 6-3.

Think through this. Currently 25% of our RPI is based on our 13-9 record. That’s a 59% wining percentage. And our projected Winning % is 61.3% so THAT portion of our RPI is actually going to go UP in his prediction. Which means all of the drop in our RPI is due to the weak schedule ahead. All the tough games are already in our RPI. It’s downhill from here unfortunately.

You can do crude exercise and assume we go 7-2, 8-1, or 9-0 over our last games and simply recalc our winning % and therefore determine the impact to our raw RPI number.


7-2 adds .008 to our RPI. 8-1 adds .015. 9-0 adds .030.

Warren Nolan doest give the raw RPI value, but team rankings does. The current #93 team has a value of .545. Add on more win to THAT score and it becomes .553. Good for #79. 2 more wins takes you to #77. And 3 more wins (9-0) gets you to #57. That’s just an estimate….but it’s also realistic. Our remaining schedule will potentially outweigh, in a negative manner, the positive impact of a very strong finish.

Of course now I’ll get the standard push back that the committee doesn’t directly use RPI anymore. And that can be a true statement. What can also be true is that in spite on being directly used as selection criteria the RPI can be used as an incredibly accurate predictor of what the committee WILL do.

I think the 9-0 scenario gets us in for ending on a winning streak and it makes Freemantles absence seem like the main cause of our January swoon. 8-1 and we are not in good RPI territory historically. We have to beat Creighton in that situation. In fact we have to beat Creighton in every situation. 7-2 and we’re out.

Razor thin.

I still think we need to close that gap between the top 4 in the Big East and us. At a glance it would be nice to look at the standings of the Big East and conclude that the Top 5 in the conference are separated from the rest of the league.

Q system is based off the net which no one knows how that’s actually computed. The ncaa won’t release the formula. What I do know is that teams move up or down and there is a big difference between a q1 and a q2. X needs creighton and UConn to keep winning so that both turn to q1, and of course x needs to beat Creighton I. That scenario.


I agree x probably needs to go 8-1 but 7-2 at the bare minimum and like you I’m not sure if that’s even enough. 8-1 and I’d feel pretty good. This team is capable of it with the remaining schedule, but it’s still a tall task with 4 away games even those two of those 4 are really shitty

[MHettel]

I thought the q system is based off of the NET? The ncaa moved from the rpi to the NET, which was an updated more in depth ranking system. Is the above numbers based off of the old RPI or the NET?

Really not trying to be an ass I just don’t know if they are different at all or if the q system is based off old rpi even though ncaa doesn’t use that tool. And like I said it might basically be the same (NET/RPI).

The site I looked at (Warren Nolan) suggested that the Quads are based on RPI. But I don’t know for sure.

And if the NCAA did in fact turn it into a secret sauce the it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. I mean they are telling teams that this Q thing is a key criteria for how to make the tourney, but they won’t tell ya how they calc it? How F’ing stupid is that?

[Xville]

The site I looked at (Warren Nolan) suggested that the Quads are based on RPI. But I don’t know for sure.

And if the NCAA did in fact turn it into a secret sauce the it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. I mean they are telling teams that this Q thing is a key criteria for how to make the tourney, but they won’t tell ya how they calc it? How F’ing stupid is that?

Yeah I’m positive it’s the net. As far as the formula, no one knows what it is for sure but teams have figured out a little bit of how to manipulate it. For example, teams figured out that beating a team by 20-30 no matter how shitty they are, makes your net better. It’s partly why Xavier scheduled a lot of shitty teams in the non-con. They were hoping to get a lot of beatdowns. Didn’t end up working out. Anyways, I’m sure there is some element of rpi in there and I think there is some kenpom efficiency metrics in there. But no one knows exactly how it’s computed, just some basic ideas. And yes I agree, typical ncaa bs

[waggy]

The Q factor regardless of the algorithms it is based upon, is just like the RPI in that it's based on "who you play". So of course the bigger conferences are going to have more opportunities, and that they will be compounding.

[xubrew]

A few points...

The NCAA does not even calculate an RPI for men's and women's basketball anymore. Warren Nolan still does and he still uses it for his own team sheets and data, but that's not what the NCAA uses it for. They still use an RPI for baseball, softball, soccer (which they really shouldn't, but do), and a few other team sports, but not for men's and women's basketball. It's gone. It's done. It's never coming back. They don't even calculate it. The NET is the current sorting tool.

But, at the end of the day, the NET really is no more than a sorting tool. It's main purpose is to decide how data is placed on a page. That's really it. The selection process isn't quite that objective.

The committee communicates every week. Probably every day. Each member has primary and secondary conferences they are in charge of monitoring and reporting on each week. They present what they've monitored, the other members ask questions, and they discuss it. This literally starts on the first night of the season and continues through the whole season. They pretty much see everything. While I think people like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm and the Bracket Matrix are really good at guessing who will get in and what their seed will be, I also don't think they're evaluating the teams quite the same way the committee is. They may almost always get the same results, so it may not matter, but the actual committee members are almost assuredly not evaluating teams the same way those guys are. They aren't saying to one another "If Team A gets up to quad 1, then it will make the difference as to whether or not we select Team B." That's just not how AD's and commissioners typically talk. They'll know things (or should) like when Wisconsin beat Arizona that Arizona was not playing nearly as well in November as they are now, and they'll subjectively factor that in. They'll know about injuries to key players. They actually have as part of their data a list of every game where players ere not available. That gets factored in too. They'll know (or should know) when a team is good overall, but bad on the road. Kansas, for instance, hasn't won a road game against a team that's likely to into the field on the committee's first ballot. So, if a team beats Kansas on their own home floor, they're not going to get the same amount of credit as if they'd done it on the road or at a neutral site. So, not all quad 1 wins are counted the same.

Okay, maybe the above is interesting and maybe it isn't. As far as Xavier playing their way in, they absolutely can. I think they're playing better now than they were up until about two weeks ago, and if they keep it up for the regular season, and hold serve and win the games that they should, then I think they'll get selected. Yeah, they didn't win at Creighton or Saint John's, and winning just one of htose would have been huge, but those two teams are a combined 25-1 AT HOME!! And I'm sure the committee knows that. Had X won just one of those they'd be in much better shape for the obvious reason of how good that win would have been. But they can still reach the field. 'February X' would kick 'December X's' ass!! It took them a while to get going, but they did finally get going. It's late, but it's not TOO late.

[MHettel]

It’s been more than 2 weeks since I started this thread. Obviously 20 or so additional games are now in the books.

Of course our backs are against the wall. And there seems to be a lot of angst about the lack of Q1 wins. I actually think that will take care of itself.

But there is an opening in my mind. If we just concede that SJU, MU,CU, and UConn are the top 4 teams and all locks, we just need to show that we belong in that discussion. Those teams have lost a combined 12 games. But only FOUR losses came to teams NOT in that group. We have 2 wins against that group. GT and Nova have one each, and we split with them. If we can manage a win vs Creighton, we will be 5-8 against the top teams. If they hold serve and don’t lose to any teams other than each other, those 3 wins look pretty dang solid. Under that scenario, we’d get the needed separation from GT and Nova as well, since each would only have one win against the top 4.

As I pointed out before, the top teams all have “harder” schedules down the stretch than they did at the beginning. We were the opposite. I think the Q1 status of wins may resolve itself just through the fact that these top teams will all get a SOS boost as they play each other. Who knows what goes into the net, but playing good teams has to help.

5th place seems to be our destiny, but looking more like the top 4 than the bottom 6 is essential at this point. A BET win (1) probably gets us in.

Definition of bubble right here.

One loss and it’s over ( in a massively disappointing way)

[waggy]

Losses at UConn and St. John's both in OT just sucks.

[xubrew]

If the NCAA shortens the games to 30 minutes I think Xavier may win out and then win it all.