The bubble is weak

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

So let’s say we go 3-1 these last four with a win vs Nova. Going into the BET we would be (I believe) 6-8 vs the top 64 NET teams. 17-14. If we get two wins, one of which over Marquette, but lose in the finals and finish 19-15, what are the chances we get in?

[Xville]

So let’s say we go 3-1 these last four with a win vs Nova. Going into the BET we would be (I believe) 6-8 vs the top 64 NET teams. 17-14. If we get two wins, one of which over Marquette, but lose in the finals and finish 19-15, what are the chances we get in?

Obviously I dont know for sure, but the fact x beat absolutely no one in the non con and the big east is down a little makes me think we would have to win out in the regular season and win two games in the bet to get in.

[GoMuskies]

We were something like #94 in the NET rankings going into last night. Not sure if it's possible to get that into a place where we have a good bubble case.

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

Obviously I dont know for sure, but the fact x beat absolutely no one in the non con and the big east is down a little makes me think we would have to win out in the regular season and win two games in the bet to get in.

A Wisconsin win would’ve gone a long way right now. Hell even Auburn we really could/should have won. Disappointing for sure.

[drudy23]

Our resume is abysmal. We won't get at-large consideration.

On the bright side, it makes the BE Tourney much more interesting this year.

[Xville]

New rankings are out and x is now 89. Of the 4 remaining games, 3 of them are quad 1 potential wins. Hypothetically we win the remaining 4, I would have to think that puts x somewhere in the 50s or 60s...gets x at least on the bubble.

[Xville]

Our resume is abysmal. We won't get at-large consideration.

On the bright side, it makes the BE Tourney much more interesting this year.

I agree that right now it is, but we win the remaining 4 games, that's 3 quad 1 wins...4 total. The teams that are on the bubble I'm not sure have better resumes than that.

For example, take a look at clemson...they are on the bubble right now and if x beats villanova, their resumes are about the same.

[Xavier]

I think Xavier can afford one more loss. Win out and lose in the BE championship is possible play in game material. Lose before BE tournament and have to win it anyways.

[GoMuskies]

If nothing else, this little streak has us back in NIT contention. Normally, I wouldn't care, but if we can't find a way into the Dance, I think playing another game (or 5) would be good for this team.

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

I think Xavier can afford one more loss. Win out and lose in the BE championship is possible play in game material. Lose before BE tournament and have to win it anyways.

I’m probably in this boat. While I can see a loss at SJU and loss in the BET final and certain dominos falling to an at large, I’d rather just win the next 7. Then win the next 6 after that.

[xubrew]

So let’s say we go 3-1 these last four with a win vs Nova. Going into the BET we would be (I believe) 6-8 vs the top 64 NET teams. 17-14. If we get two wins, one of which over Marquette, but lose in the finals and finish 19-15, what are the chances we get in?

If Xavier can get to 19 wins (I know there are several different combinations of how that can happen), then I think they will get a VERY serious look.

[SemajParlor]

A lot of losses that sting even more now for sure. I think it would take running the table to end the regular season and still likely 2 wins for us to be considered.

[SemajParlor]

I think Xavier can afford one more loss. Win out and lose in the BE championship is possible play in game material. Lose before BE tournament and have to win it anyways.

Yeah didn't see this before I posted. But agreed I think that's the only path for an at large.

[SemajParlor]

Ironically, there is a chance at winning the Big East Tournament. Go figure.

[GoMuskies]

Ironically, there is a chance at winning the Big East Tournament. Go figure.

Definitely. It's wide open. Particularly if someone else beats Marquette. I just think they're a terrible matchup. But we HAVE to get that first round bye. With our short rotation, I don't see how 4 in 4 could happen in MSG.

[SemajParlor]

Can't wait for selection Sunday when we're 19-15 and arguing we deserve it more than a 25+ win mid major.

You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.

[Muskie]

ESPN was making the case that IU could get an at large bid the other night during the Purdue game. They were 4-10 in the Big Ten at the time.

[drudy23]

I agree that right now it is, but we win the remaining 4 games, that's 3 quad 1 wins...4 total. The teams that are on the bubble I'm not sure have better resumes than that.

For example, take a look at clemson...they are on the bubble right now and if x beats villanova, their resumes are about the same.

I will give you that, but that's a big if.

Villanova, St Johns x 2, and Butler on the road. Hardly a scenario where anyone would expect 4-0.

We did next to nothing in the non-conference, and honestly, I don't think 4-0 even gives us a chance.

In saying that, I'm all for The Run Part Deux

[paulxu]

Can't wait for selection Sunday when we're 19-15 and arguing we deserve it more than a 25+ win mid major.

You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.

The Wofford Terriers (#24 NET) are looking at you.

[GoMuskies]

Wofford is probably fine (for now). Lipscomb shit the bed last night and has to win their conference tournament.

If Belmont wins out and loses to Murray State in the conference final....

[Xville]

I will give you that, but that's a big if.

Villanova, St Johns x 2, and Butler on the road. Hardly a scenario where anyone would expect 4-0.

We did next to nothing in the non-conference, and honestly, I don't think 4-0 even gives us a chance.

In saying that, I'm all for The Run Part Deux

Absolutely a big if and I dont expect it. At the very least, I feel better about the direction of the program moving forward. After the loss to DePaul, I was starting to have doubts even though I knew we had help coming next year.

[SemajParlor]

The Wofford Terriers (#24 NET) are looking at you.

SOCON has been tremendous this year.

[SemajParlor]

I think it’s likely because of X struggles earlier but I’ve been into the mid major scene a lot more than usual this year Bummed about Lipscomb last night. Some fun (and some really good) teams out there.

[xubrew]

The Wofford Terriers (#24 NET) are looking at you.

If Wofford wins two of their last three and doesn't get in, then everyone on the selection committee should be fired into the sun.

[GIMMFD]

I feel like the bubble is weaker every single year, or is it just bias? What I wonder is how much the committee will value finishing strong, let's say we go 3-1, and then 2 in the BET. That makes us 8-2 in the last 10 games, do they value that more than the beginning of the season, and the slump we went through? If so, then I think we get a serious look, if not, I don't know how well our resume holds. It sucks that we dropped a few games we should have won throughout the season, because we could already be sitting on the bubble, but it makes for a new found excitement in the end of the season. I agree that if we can get into the NIT, that'd be huge for this team to grow a little more and get some extra practices/games in against competition. In my opinion it's like wanting your college football team to be bowl eligible even if it isn't for a NY6 bowl, the extra practices will help develop the younger guys.

[chico]

The Wofford Terriers (#24 NET) are looking at you.

We should be big fans of Wofford, as well as every other mid-major that could get an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tourney. Last thing we need is some 12-20 team stealing a bid to dash whatever slim hope we have.

[X-band '01]

Ironically, there is a chance at winning the Big East Tournament. Go figure.

It would certainly be easier from the #6 seed that Xavier currently has - it would mean needing to win only 3 games as opposed to four from the #7 seed that Butler currently holds.

[drudy23]

This team could win the BE Tourney. There could be some electricity left after all. Wouldn't that be fun.

[GoMuskies]

Just getting to Friday night in MSG would be fun, honestly.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Some fun (and some really good) teams out there.

If you arent talking about BYU do not even talk about fun teams!

[GoMuskies]

Murray State is the new BYU. Just because Ja Morant.

[D-West & PO-Z]

We should be big fans of Wofford, as well as every other mid-major that could get an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tourney. Last thing we need is some 12-20 team stealing a bid to dash whatever slim hope we have.

Also it will be funny, if we dont finish well but are hoping for NIT, to be rooting for all the mid major regular season champs to also win their conference tourney. The NIT spots get gobbled up quickly when there is a lot of mid major regular season champs who lose in the conference tourney.

[X-band '01]

Buffalo, Wofford and Belmont all immediately come to mind. The SoCon is the most likely league to get two bids - maybe even 3 if they get a 3rd place team like UNC-Greensboro or East Tennessee State that beats Wofford in the semifinals and Furman in the championship. The OVC's best route for multiple bids involves Murray State or someone else beating Belmont in the championship. Ditto the MAC for Buffalo losing in their championship game.

[JTG]

I think 18 wins bubble, 19 wins in.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Murray State is the new BYU. Just because Ja Morant.

False, no one is as fun as BYU. This has been covered!

[SemajParlor]

Wofford is actually the new BYU. Because Fletcher McGee = Jimmer

[GoMuskies]

False, no one is as fun as BYU. This has been covered!

I already repped you once for this joke you greedy jackass! :)

[paulxu]

Wofford is actually the new BYU. Because Fletcher McGee = Jimmer

This is true.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I already repped you once for this joke you greedy jackass! :)

HA, you did, I appreciate it, just can't get enough of that line.

This has been covered!

[kmcrawfo]

If Xavier wins out in Big East play to finish 10-8 and 3rd in the conference with a 6-7 record against quad 1 teams with no quad 4 loses they should be in good position for an at large bid assuming they don't fall on their face in the BET.

Never in doubt.

Go X!

[GIMMFD]

If you arent talking about BYU do not even talk about fun teams!

I still can't believe Brandon Davies (was that his name?) the PF was kicked off the team Jimmer's senior year right before NCAA's for having consentual sex with his girlfriend, they truly are sticklers for rules, guy was averaging like 15 ppg at the time.


If Xavier wins out in Big East play to finish 10-8 and 3rd in the conference with a 6-7 record against quad 1 teams with no quad 4 loses they should be in good position for an at large bid assuming they don't fall on their face in the BET.

Never in doubt.

Go X!

If we win out in Big East play I'll buy you a beer, it's plausible this season, it's the most open it's been but man, that would be something. Insane what a 3 game win streak can do to morale around here.

[Joel]

We took a look at Xavier's best-case scenario for at-large consideration (https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2019/2/21/18234771/xavier-still-technically-alive-for-an-at-large-bid-march-madness-basketball-ncaa-tournament-big-east). The short answer is that, even with the team's next loss coming in the BET final, it's pretty tough sledding for them to get an at-large. Stranger things have happened, though, and it's better to have a slim chance than none at all. After six straight losses, hope still finds a way to spring eternal.

[XUBison]

Wanna get crazy? Let’s get crazy... when we finish the season on a 10-game winning streak, what’s our tourney seed?

[Xville]

We took a look at Xavier's best-case scenario for at-large consideration (https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2019/2/21/18234771/xavier-still-technically-alive-for-an-at-large-bid-march-madness-basketball-ncaa-tournament-big-east). The short answer is that, even with the team's next loss coming in the BET final, it's pretty tough sledding for them to get an at-large. Stranger things have happened, though, and it's better to have a slim chance than none at all. After six straight losses, hope still finds a way to spring eternal.

I find it extremely hard to believe that if we win out in the regular season, and win two in the BET, that we only have a 10% chance for an at large bid. X would have at worst 5 Quad 1 wins and a 10-8 record in a top 5 conference (even though admittedly it is a bit down this year.)

[D-West & PO-Z]

I find it extremely hard to believe that if we win out in the regular season, and win two in the BET, that we only have a 10% chance for an at large bid. X would have at worst 5 Quad 1 wins and a 10-8 record in a top 5 conference (even though admittedly it is a bit down this year.)

Yeah I am with you.

While obviously this scenario isnt likely, if it happens I don't know how we don't have at least a 50/50 chance. Unless the committee is just so disgusted by our out of conference they dont consider it. Seems like though they get more mad about playing no one in out of conference than beating no one, but maybe it is the same.

[fellahmuskie]

Agree with you guys. Metrics aside, I'd rather have the momentum at the end of the season too. I feel like the committee would much rather have a team playing well in March than one that tanked down the stretch.

[xubrew]

Agree with you guys. Metrics aside, I'd rather have the momentum at the end of the season too. I feel like the committee would much rather have a team playing well in March than one that tanked down the stretch.

I don't know what to feel about this year's committee. I think there are a few people on it who are complete idiots. One in particular has needed the RPI explained to them repeatedly. It's 7th grade math!! So, forget explaining the NET to this person. I'm not going to say who, but I really don't think I have to. You can look at who's on it and figure it out.

So, you would think that they would want that, but I really don't know. What's funny is that we have all these new enhanced metrics, and I think there are several people on this committee that won't really even look at the metrics at all. They just don't seem like the kind of people that would sit around and mull over a bunch of data. And, then there is one that wouldn't understand what all of the abbreviations mean on the stat sheet of basic game. Okay, that's an exaggeration. At least, I think. But....maybe not.

[GoMuskies]

I'm just going to assume that the idiot on the Selection Committee is Mitch Barnhart. Because that's who I want it to be.

Bernadette McGlade is probably the more logical choice. It's hard to believe she still has a job when her conference has been completely gutted during her tenure.

[Joel]

Yeah I am with you.

While obviously this scenario isnt likely, if it happens I don't know how we don't have at least a 50/50 chance. Unless the committee is just so disgusted by our out of conference they dont consider it. Seems like though they get more mad about playing no one in out of conference than beating no one, but maybe it is the same.

I don't know how Bart Torvik arrives at his numbers, but I'm with you. I think 20-14 and scalding hot down the stretch would give us a good enough resume to be comfortably in. On the other hand, that's basically the exact case we argued against when we were like 24-8 with an A10 schedule and not happy about not getting enough respect. Maybe I'm just wearing blinders because it's my team, but I think that resume should be in.

Of course, we don't have that resume just yet. Gotta win 'em one at a time.

[bleedXblue]

im just happy we are even taking about the bubble really............2 weeks ago I wanted the season over.......

[mid major]

im just happy we are even taking about the bubble really............2 weeks ago I wanted the season over.......

+1

[UCGRAD4X]

im just happy we are even taking about the bubble really............2 weeks ago I wanted the season over.......

I never want the season to end. I don't know what to do. I shrivel up into the fetal position with my thumb in my mouth and try to detox so I can actually pay some attention to other areas of my life; like my job, my family, my health and all those niggling things that I have put off since November like eating sleeping, bathing and removing the empty bottles and cans from every horizontal surface in my house.

[American X]

Can't wait for selection Sunday when we're 19-15 and arguing we deserve it more than a 25+ win mid major.

You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.

Brilliant.

https://media.giphy.com/media/WrUVMrXqU1oSk/giphy.gif

[stammina0721]

For the last few years the committee had the at larges done fairly early. I've learned the past few years that wins in the conference tournament hold very little weight. Just winning out the regular season is going to be considered mostly and the resume just is not there. The hope for me is to really build momentum to win 3 in 3. That's the only way we are getting in

[GoMuskies]

If we're going to win the Big East Tournament, winning the last three and getting that #3 seed would be enormous. While there's no Big East team that I'm exactly confident we would definitely bear at MSG, Marquette is the one team I'm not sure how we can beat. So if we can avoid them until the finals, that would be nice. Someone else might knock them off, or at least we'd be on a nine game win streak at that point if we played them. That's the best scenario for our longshot at-large hopes.

[stammina0721]

Right now we are the third best team in the conference. Just sad we had that losing streak. I'd put Marquette, Georgetown as 1 and 2 right now with X and Nova at 3 and 4.

[bleedXblue]

Right now we are the third best team in the conference. Just sad we had that losing streak. I'd put Marquette, Georgetown as 1 and 2 right now with X and Nova at 3 and 4.

Georgetown # 2? You feeling ok?

I would say Mar, St Johns and Nova are clearly the top 3.

[fellahmuskie]

For the last few years the committee had the at larges done fairly early. I've learned the past few years that wins in the conference tournament hold very little weight. Just winning out the regular season is going to be considered mostly and the resume just is not there. The hope for me is to really build momentum to win 3 in 3. That's the only way we are getting in

I'm pretty sure we went from being a bubble team to a 6 seed by winning two games in the BET one year. Though perhaps you're right and the committee has changed.

Also, the BE is not very good this year, so harder to get meaningful wins in MSG.

We'll see. Gotta keep winning either way.

[bleedXblue]

One win at a time..............................................

[X-band '01]

St. John's is slightly schizo and Georgetown is very schizo this year.

[Xville]

Some really weird negativity in this thread. We just won back to back quad 1 games, we are going to win a third on Thursday. For those saying the resume is just not there, go take a look at the resumes of the teams that are on the bubble right now. We win out the regular season, and win 1 in the bet, x is in.

[kmcrawfo]

Some really weird negativity in this thread. We just won back to back quad 1 games, we are going to win a third on Thursday. For those saying the resume is just not there, go take a look at the resumes of the teams that are on the bubble right now. We win out the regular season, and win 1 in the bet, x is in.

Spot on. 3 more Big East wins = #3 in the Big East = at least 1 win in MSG = 20-14 overall = at large bid.

[KFX]

Can't wait for selection Sunday when we're 19-15 and arguing we deserve it more than a 25+ win mid major.

You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.


A lot of wisdom in this post. Thanks for that.

[Xavier]

Spot on. 3 more Big East wins = #3 in the Big East = at least 1 win in MSG = 20-14 overall = at large bid.

I think to be 20-14 X needs to get to the BE championship. I still think that’s the only loss X can afford and still get an at large (in the BE championship). Having said that, at 19-14 I would be watching selection Sunday with a slight hope of a play in game. A lot would need to happen.

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

Yep, X is currently 15-13. Get to 18-13 plus 2 wins and a loss in the BET Final puts us at 20-14. I don’t think 19-15 does it. What’s our best non-conference win?

[GoMuskies]

Illinois

[stammina0721]

I can't imagine winning out brings our rpi or power numbers into the 50's or even the 60's. I just don't see an at large bid no matter what. Of course if someone can do any projections that would be great to see what we could go up to

[Xville]

I can't imagine winning out brings our rpi or power numbers into the 50's or even the 60's. I just don't see an at large bid no matter what. Of course if someone can do any projections that would be great to see what we could go up to

Well, the rpi means absolutely nothing, but right now we are 90 in the net. I am extremely interested to see what we are tomorrow when it gets updated. I think if we somehow move into the mid 70s, we have a very good chance of breaking into the 50s if x wins out. That gets x pretty bubblicious. We shall see...just win out and then we can worry about it :) .

[Xville]

not that I'm advocating for X to be in as of this moment, but when Minnesota (who has won 1 away game all year and has 2 Quad 1 wins) is in as of this moment according to bracket matrix and bracketology, I find it hard to fathom that X would not get in with a 19-14 record and at least 4 Quad 1 if not 5 quad 1 wins.

[GoMuskies]

We still haven't cracked the ESPN Bubble Watch. Perhaps with a win at St. John's.

[Xville]

Only moved 6 spots in the net rankings...now at 84. Now I'm starting to question if we can get in without winning the bet. I guess we will see where we are at after x beats st johns... the picture may get a bit clearer after that.

[D-West & PO-Z]

We still haven't cracked the ESPN Bubble Watch. Perhaps with a win at St. John's.

Yeah saw that as well. And Georgetown fell off of it as well.

[hydmuskie]

I dont think there is a path to an at large bid... just had a horrible ooc. My heart wishes it my brain says no way...

[X-band '01]

I dont think there is a path to an at large bid... just had a horrible ooc. My heart wishes it my brain says no way...

You never say never, but there is no margin for error left as far as an at-large bid goes.

That said, the Big East Tournament is wide open this year. There were other Xavier teams that were on the bubble going into MSG (i.e. 2014, 2015 and 2017), but none of them had quite the sense of urgency this time of the year that this team is displaying right now.

[GetUp5]

As well as this team is playing right now, it's a real shame they lost home games to DePaul, Providence and Seton Hall. That is probably what is going to keep them from getting to the bubble. Win 1 or 2 of those games and we're in a lot better situation right now.

But, like others have said -- 20-14 and you'd have to think they'd get a look.

[waggy]

Xavier Musketeers NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projection by Team Rankings


https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/xavier-musketeers/bracketology

If the team continues to play with great defensive effort and they take care of the ball they can reach their goals. Same as it always was.

[GIMMFD]

Only moved 6 spots in the net rankings...now at 84. Now I'm starting to question if we can get in without winning the bet. I guess we will see where we are at after x beats st johns... the picture may get a bit clearer after that.

I think it's the bad losses we had, there's at least 5 games I could think of that we should have won, add that in and we're already a 20 win team, but some of the collapses, DePaul, Providence, etc. just really sting right now. I'm still thinking 20 wins will do it, 19 will be iffy, would love to just win these three, and take the Big East Championship and not have to worry about it though.

[stammina0721]

It's BET championship or nothing. You can't make up for a seasons worth of screw ups in 2 or 3 weeks. The numbers are what the numbers are at this point. Just gotta go to NYC and ball out

This shouldn't be a big surprise. Just like how the RPI means squat in November well in late February a win isn't going to jump you 40 spots because there is too much data. It just isn't going to happen

[xubrew]

For the last few years the committee had the at larges done fairly early. I've learned the past few years that wins in the conference tournament hold very little weight. Just winning out the regular season is going to be considered mostly and the resume just is not there. The hope for me is to really build momentum to win 3 in 3. That's the only way we are getting in

Sort of. They do the first ballot...well...first, and that will probably get more than 30 of the at-larges in within the first hour of the process. They usually get to 36 on the second day, and then every time one of those 36 teams win a conference tournament they add another team. So, while most of the at-larges are in almost right away, they're still selecting teams as late as late Saturday night, and what teams do in the conference tournaments are considered just like any other games that were played during the season.


I can't imagine winning out brings our rpi or power numbers into the 50's or even the 60's. I just don't see an at large bid no matter what. Of course if someone can do any projections that would be great to see what we could go up to

The NET is too hard to predict, but our average efficiency rankings have gone from 112 to 93 (I think) over the last four games, which is a HUGE jump over the course of just four games at this time of the year. I don't know how much more they're going to improve because it is impossible to predict how efficiently we are going to play, but if it continues to go up at that rate it will raise the NET. The other thing you have to consider is that we have two games away from home, and then the conference tournament after that. The NET uses an adjusted record just like the RPI did, so while beating Nova is great, beating Saint John's (and probably Butler too) on the road will spike the NET more than a home game over Villanova would.

EDIT: Not that ANYONE cares about this, nor does it really matter, but when you hear the talking heads say things like "Nevada losing in the MWC is gonna knock Alabama (or whoever) out of the tournament" that's really not the case. The committee doesn't "knock teams out of the tournament." They just put teams in as spots become available. There are 36 spots, and they start off by picking 36 teams. Every time one of those teams wins a conference tournament and doesn't need a spot, they select another team.

[fellahmuskie]

There's always at least one head scratcher in the tournament. If we finish the season on a tear, I would be happy to be the team pissing off the so called bracketologists on selection Sunday.

[AviatorX]

Sort of. They do the first ballot...well...first, and that will probably get more than 30 of the at-larges in within the first hour of the process. They usually get to 36 on the second day, and then every time one of those 36 teams win a conference tournament they add another team. So, while most of the at-larges are in almost right away, they're still selecting teams as late as late Saturday night, and what teams do in the conference tournaments are considered just like any other games that were played during the season.



The NET is too hard to predict, but our average efficiency rankings have gone from 112 to 93 (I think) over the last four games, which is a HUGE jump over the course of just four games at this time of the year. I don't know how much more they're going to improve because it is impossible to predict how efficiently we are going to play, but if it continues to go up at that rate it will raise the NET. The other thing you have to consider is that we have two games away from home, and then the conference tournament after that. The NET uses an adjusted record just like the RPI did, so while beating Nova is great, beating Saint John's (and probably Butler too) on the road will spike the NET more than a home game over Villanova would.

EDIT: Not that ANYONE cares about this, nor does it really matter, but when you hear the talking heads say things like "Nevada losing in the MWC is gonna knock Alabama (or whoever) out of the tournament" that's really not the case. The committee doesn't "knock teams out of the tournament." They just put teams in as spots become available. There are 36 spots, and they start off by picking 36 teams. Every time one of those teams wins a conference tournament and doesn't need a spot, they select another team.

Am I off base to think a team’s own NET ranking in theory has very little impact on selection? As in the real use of NET is valuing a given teams wins/losses? Could be way wrong.

[GoMuskies]

Still only #85 in KenPom.

[X-band '01]

I would be happy to be the team pissing off the so called bracketologists on selection Sunday.

It's too bad BYU isn't on the bubble as a First Four team - that's a bracketologist's worst nightmare.

[xubrew]

Am I off base to think a team’s own NET ranking in theory has very little impact on selection? As in the real use of NET is valuing a given teams wins/losses? Could be way wrong.

That's what they've said. But, who knows? I used to try and guess the committee. Some years it's easier than others depending on who's on it and how you think they'll look at things, but I've now come to the conclusion that I am not capable of guessing what a committee of ten people is going to do. But, they've SAID that it's a data sorting tool and it's meant to give a better indication of the values of wins and losses.

[waggy]

Still only #85 in KenPom.

But February 10 they were #112.

[waggy]

And Sagarin has their recent play at #33.

[xubrew]

And Sagarin has their recent play at #33.

When you say "recent play" what does that mean? Does he do a ranking based on how teams have done in just their last few games?

[GoMuskies]

When you say "recent play" what does that mean? Does he do a ranking based on how teams have done in just their last few games?

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/2019/conference/

Column on far right. Even a #59 overall ranking isn't too bad and would have us within striking distance of at-large territory.

[waggy]

When you say "recent play" what does that mean? Does he do a ranking based on how teams have done in just their last few games?

From Sagarin rating page:




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become

more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN, and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

[RetireFiftyTu]

Not to mention KPI is 61 right now which is a metric based on your resume or what you have accomplished. Win the next 5 and crazier things have happened. Bummer that your performance in the last 10 games is no longer a thing.
Before the 4 game win streak vs now. Win 4-5 more and you never know.
NET: 106 ➡️ 84
KPI: 111 ➡️ 61
SOR: 132 ➡️ 75
Kenpom: 112 ➡️ 85
Sagarin: 83 ➡️ 59
BPI: 105 ➡️ 81

[paulxu]

We be sneakin' up...

[stammina0721]

If last 10 was a metric we would have a chance. I think the formula is pretty simple... Win 3 in a row in NYC and there are no questions... No one is playing tougher than us in conference right now...

[Xuperman]

Weak is an understatement. I mean Dayton is now on the bubble.....DAYTON!! They have ZERO quality wins unless you consider Davidson or SLU quality. And can someone please explain how San Francisco, St. Mary's and Utah St. are being considered for an AT LARGE? Basketball out west SUCKS! There is not a quality Non con win for any of those 3 and they all have some terrible losses. Is Lunardi actually putting more weight into these MID-MAJOR conference wins over wins in the BE? Can't see it. We're in with a 10-8 conference record.

[xukeith]

I thought 4 games ago, X could be on bubble if go 18-12.
Now I think X has to win out and bag 2 games in NYC.

[Xavier]

I really think an at-large is the best bet for this team. Must win out regular season. 18-13 going to BET, win one game and at 19-14 with a loss in semifinals. Would be a stretch, win 2 games and I think they are in for sure.

I think this team can win the BET but starters (Especially Naji) playing so many minutes gets a little concerning for that type of run.

[Murph85]

All the complicated tier match ups coupled with the other odious factors make estimating your chances of an at large bid a headache.

If we can win out the 3 games we probably finish in the top 3 as SH plays Marquet and Nova. We would have a win at Butler who are listed as in . How can the committee not take at least 3 from the BE and us not be one of them?

We just need to win and right now I don't think anyone but Marquette wants any part of playing us. Must admit, St.Johns is dangerous. We will need a big defensive effort in both games. I do not fear Butler.

[Masterofreality]

Obviously I dont know for sure, but the fact x beat absolutely no one in the non con and the big east is down a little makes me think we would have to win out in the regular season and win two games in the bet to get in.

This

[GoMuskies]

Why is Butler (15-13, 6-9 lost to Dayton!) still listed in the Bubble Watch and not 15-13, 7-8, 1-0 vs. Butler Xavier? Not saying we really deserve to be there, but if Butler is still there....

[XU '11]

Why is Butler (15-13, 6-9 lost to Dayton!) still listed in the Bubble Watch and not 15-13, 7-8, 1-0 vs. Butler Xavier? Not saying we really deserve to be there, but if Butler is still there....

They’re 30 spots higher than us in the NET rankings. Non-conference wins over Florida and Ole Miss are a lot better than anything we have.

[GoMuskies]

Still, they lost to Dayton!

[GIMMFD]

They’re 30 spots higher than us in the NET rankings. Non-conference wins over Florida and Ole Miss are a lot better than anything we have.

Yup, if we win out the next three it'll be interesting, really wish we could have capitalized on some of the games we let slip away, coming back to bite us now. But hey at least this team made the end of the season interesting, a lot more than I expected a few weeks ago. I wonder how high we'll get in the NET with a road win at St. John's and Butler, if that were to occur..

[X-band '01]

Alabama finally helped themselves with a win at South Carolina last night. Utah State won at home against San Diego State, and if they're able to beat Nevada at home, their case will get a little stronger as well.

TCU lost at West Virginia, Temple lost at Memphis and we've covered Butler - the Bulldogs aren't out of it yet, but they're going to now be more desperate against Nova, Xavier and Providence for their final three games.

[kellernr]

I havent watched St. John's play this year but I did see they only have 1 guy over 6'7 that plays very few minutes. Jones and Hankins should have a field day inside if our guards can make the entry passes.
The team needs to come out and pound the ball inside early.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[xubrew]

Why is Butler (15-13, 6-9 lost to Dayton!) still listed in the Bubble Watch and not 15-13, 7-8, 1-0 vs. Butler Xavier? Not saying we really deserve to be there, but if Butler is still there....

There are stupid people on the committee. Perhaps the bracketologists are factoring that in.

[XU 87]

Butler has a NET ranking of 52. X is at 84.

[GoMuskies]

Butler has a NET ranking of 52. X is at 84.

If that's all it is, then that's really a stupid way to pick out at-large candidates. Their non-conference wasn't as bad as ours but pretty much sucked as well. We're in the same conference as them for 18 games and have a better record and beat them head to head. For now, they shouldn't be a better at-large candidate than Xavier.

[X-band '01]

Their best noncon wins were Florida (in Atlantis) and Ole Miss and UC-Irvine at home. Xavier's only win away from home noncon was against Illinois in Maui.

Worse yet, Xavier is 1-3 in Quad 3 games because of the home losses to DePaul and Providence as well as the San Diego State loss in Maui.

[GoMuskies]

Don't misunderstand. I'm not saying our case is good. Just that theirs is just as bad as ours.

[xumuskies08]

Their best noncon wins were Florida (in Atlantis) and Ole Miss and UC-Irvine at home. Xavier's only win away from home noncon was against Illinois in Maui.

Worse yet, Xavier is 1-3 in Quad 3 games because of the home losses to DePaul and Providence as well as the San Diego State loss in Maui.

Those SDSU and DePaul games are KILLERS. Both in terms of metrics and because of how winnable they were. If only...

[XU 87]

If that's all it is, then that's really a stupid way to pick out at-large candidates. Their non-conference wasn't as bad as ours but pretty much sucked as well. We're in the same conference as them for 18 games and have a better record and beat them head to head. For now, they shouldn't be a better at-large candidate than Xavier.

In looking over Butler's resume, I don't understand how their NET ranking is 30 spots higher than X's.

Brew, any insights in addition to the above posts? Can neutral court wins over Florida and Ole Miss account for 30 spots?

[XU '11]

In looking over Butler's resume, I don't understand how their NET ranking is 30 spots higher than X's.

Brew, any insights in addition to the above posts? Can neutral court wins over Florida and Ole Miss account for 30 spots?

I've only been able to find one metric that ranks Xavier above Butler: Sagarin's 'RECENT' rating.

Some are closer than others. X is only one spot behind in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, while Butler is 29 spots ahead in Pomeroy. Strength of Record doesn't take margin of victory into account, while that's a major factor in Pomeroy. I'd guess that's playing a pretty big role.

[blueblob]

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-teams-auburn-syracuse-wofford-texas

[GoMuskies]

Nice find! Someone finally has us in the mix (and in the same category as a team that's lost 11 of its last 13 games!).

[SemajParlor]

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-teams-auburn-syracuse-wofford-texas

Hey now! Someone's doing their homework.

[X-band '01]

I should also add that a team like NC State better not find itself among the Last 4 In or First 4 Out on Selection Sunday. Their nonconference SOS is #352.

If you're keeping count, there are 353 programs in D-1.

[SkyWalker]

I think if we can win the next three regular season games and enter the BET as the third place team in the league, we should get some consideration for an at-large. Third place and a semi-final appearance gets us serious consideration for an at-large. With a loss in the finals, I believe we get strong consideration for an at-large. And a win in the finals, we are dancing for sure.

On the other hand, if we lose tonight, we are prolly in trouble unless we win the BET.

Stay Positive!

[HenryMuto]

Only 2 times in NCAA history has a team had 15 losses and got an at large bid. Ironically it has been the last 2 years. In 2017 Vanderbilt was 19-15 and got at large and in 2018 Alabama was 19-15 and got an at large bid.

Looming large is that stupifying home loss to DePaul. Win that game and X might have been able to survive 1 more loss.

I don't think they can loss another one this would mean 15 total losses after the conf tournament loss.

[HenryMuto]

Am I off base to think a team’s own NET ranking in theory has very little impact on selection? As in the real use of NET is valuing a given teams wins/losses? Could be way wrong.

For the most part you are correct but I think the worst RPI to ever get an at large bid was 78.

So I think your NET would still need to be in the 70's to even be considered I think a NET in the 80's = not even a look.

Honestly a NET in the 70s might not even get a look I think the NET needs to be in the 60s at the very worst but just a guess.

[HenryMuto]

Seeing what has happened these last 5 games it makes it that much more frustrating the losses that should have been wins.

The DePaul game stands out the most that game is probably going to be the difference between making the dance and not making the dance.

Also early season misses against Auburn and a bad early season loss to SDST.

A few weeks ago this team was in last place and I had given up I Mean how could you have not given up on this team ?

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

[GIMMFD]

Seeing what has happened these last 5 games it makes it that much more frustrating the losses that should have been wins.

The DePaul game stands out the most that game is probably going to be the difference between making the dance and not making the dance.

Also early season misses against Auburn and a bad early season loss to SDST.

A few weeks ago this team was in last place and I had given up I Mean how could you have not given up on this team ?

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Eh as annoying as it is, you can't sit back and focus on the losses, they're peaking now, which is really good, we have some bad losses, but playing like a team possessed, 5 in a row is a great feat. If we can win the regular season, I think the committee is going to have to look really strongly at X. It also helps we historically do alright in the NCAA Tournament as well, may be something that they also take into account. We control our own destiny, just win out as many as you can, and let the chips fall into place after.

[HenryMuto]

Joe Lunardi just made no sense. He just said the loss by Saint John's will cost them 1 full seed line because they lost to a bottom of the Big East team then his very next thing he says is "and now Xavier is on the bubble"..........wait you just said bottom of Big East team........they are in 3rd by the way .... wtf know your facts!

[X-band '01]

A team's history isn't factored in at all.

What is important is that the 5 wins in the streak haven't come against lightweights. At Seton Hall, Villanova and at St. John's are all Quad 1 wins now.

If the season ended tonight, Xavier would now be looking at the #3 seed and playing a potential road of Georgetown, Villanova and Marquette to win the Big East title. I'll definitely take that path.

[HenryMuto]

Eh as annoying as it is, you can't sit back and focus on the losses, they're peaking now, which is really good, we have some bad losses, but playing like a team possessed, 5 in a row is a great feat. If we can win the regular season, I think the committee is going to have to look really strongly at X. It also helps we historically do alright in the NCAA Tournament as well, may be something that they also take into account. We control our own destiny, just win out as many as you can, and let the chips fall into place after.

Still doesn't take away from the frustration.

[Xville]

Up 10 spots to 72 in kenpom...assuming we will be around there for net as well. Getting bubblicious

[GIMMFD]

Up 10 spots to 72 in kenpom...assuming we will be around there for net as well. Getting bubblicious

Not updated as of yet, but I think we'll jump up from 83 to the low 70s as well, beat Butler on the road and St. John's at home, and it could get really interesting to see where we end up for the Big East tournament.

[OTRMUSKIE]

We now have 3 quad 1 wins after tonight’s win. Tied with UC.https://m.herosports.com/ncaa-tournament/most-quadrant-1-wins-team-sheets-kansas-ahah

[Xville]

Still not in bubble watch. Espn can eat a bag of dicks.

[XUGRAD80]

Not sure how often they update their brackets, but.....they have ST. John and SH listed as in, and Xavier out. Can’t beleive that wouldn’t change with Xavier continuing to win. But X may need the favorites in the smaller conferences to win their league tournaments and avoid upsets.

Heck...it’s just good to be able to realistically discuss it right now. Sure didn’t feel like a possibility less than a month ago.

It’s March....it’s Xavier time!

[Xville]

Not sure how often they update their brackets, but.....they have ST. John and SH listed as in, and Xavier out. Can’t beleive that wouldn’t change with Xavier continuing to win. But X may need the favorites in the smaller conferences to win their league tournaments and avoid upsets.

Heck...it’s just good to be able to realistically discuss it right now. Sure didn’t feel like a possibility less than a month ago.

It’s March....it’s Xavier time!

Think we need to win 4 more to feel completely secure. 3 may do it, but I’d rather not be sweating profusely on selection Sunday :)

[X-band '01]

Still not in bubble watch.

Shh. This is how you're supposed to sneak up on people.

[Xuperman]

CBB is the most entertaining sport on the planet...ok maybe 2nd to girls beach volleyball. But anyway, remember when we all looked at the last 6 games on the schedule with great apprehension..... 4 on the road and Nova at home. Well we flipped that script nicely didn't we. Perfect time to heat up fellas!

[paulxu]

We are 83 in the NET. Seemed to have only gained 1 spot after last night's win. That doesn't seem quite right.

[Xville]

We are 83 in the NET. Seemed to have only gained 1 spot after last night's win. That doesn't seem quite right.

Hasnt updated yet...probably will in an hour or so.

[paulxu]

Hasnt updated yet...probably will in an hour or so.

OK. Thanks.

[X-band '01]

The Pac-12 is officially the Conference of Cannibilization. Not only did Arizona State get blown away at Oregon, Washington found a way to lose at a Cal team that had lost 23 straight Pac-12 games going into last night. Husky fans are going to be reliving their recent nightmare of winning the Pac-12 regular season and still getting relegated to the NIT.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi updated his Bracketology this morning. Xavier has not yet made it into his first 8 out (putting us behind the likes of Dayton, Murray State, San Francisco and Furman in that regard). Big East has 4 in with Butler and Georgetown among the first 8 out (and Seton Hall playing in Dayton). St. John's has, for now, avoided the first 4 byes category. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I really think momentum for Xavier's case will accelerate among the punditry this weekend leading up to our game at Butler on Tuesday.

[GoMuskies]

The Pac-12 is officially the Conference of Cannibilization. Not only did Arizona State get blown away at Oregon, Washington found a way to lose at a Cal team that had lost 23 straight Pac-12 games going into last night. Husky fans are going to be reliving their recent nightmare of winning the Pac-12 regular season and still getting relegated to the NIT.

Juan Bid is looming.

[Xville]

X moved up to 71 in the net. Beat butler and st John's and they will easily be in the 50s....just keep winning.

[GIMMFD]

X moved up to 71 in the net. Beat butler and st John's and they will easily be in the 50s....just keep winning.

Yeah, winning at Butler and taking care of St. John's at home would really have to give us an at-large consideration, I'd like to win these two and then take care of Georgetown and Nova again in the Big East tournament, and see what happens in the finals. I think if we win these two and went to the Big East Tourney final, we'd get in on at-large depending on how the conference tourneys would go. Talk about making it interesting down the stretch.

[stammina0721]

I want it to be that way but I just don't think it is so. The only chance we have of an at large is if the committee is actually watching X play right now and not going purely off of numbers. Damn those loses to DePaul and SDSU are looking large now. Just gotta keep winning and pray for a miracle or two

[GIMMFD]

I want it to be that way but I just don't think it is so. The only chance we have of an at large is if the committee is actually watching X play right now and not going purely off of numbers. Damn those loses to DePaul and SDSU are looking large now. Just gotta keep winning and pray for a miracle or two

I think it's possible that they're watching, out of pure curiosity if anything, you know? If I were on the committee and I saw where a 3-8 team in conference just pulled 5 in a row including 3 Quad 1 wins, I'd be curious enough to watch. I think after the Nova game they probably got a couple committee members watching, and I'm sure a few are going to tune in at Butler. It's their job to pick the best field, I know each committee will have their guys that don't do due diligence, but if we can get just a couple people on this committee to look at the recent numbers and watch our play, I legitimately think we could get in as an at large at 20 wins.

[Xville]

I think it's basically a guarantee that we get an at large if we win the next 4 games. Bubble is garbage

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

I think it's basically a guarantee that we get an at large if we win the next 4 games. Bubble is garbage

Would you rather play Nova or Marquette in the semis? Also, who do you want to play in the quarters, if given the choice

[GoMuskies]

Would you rather play Nova or Marquette in the semis? Also, who do you want to play in the quarters, if given the choice

Nova in the semis. I'm not convinced we can beat Marquette. QFs I like Butler or Georgetown (maybe Creighton if that's still possible). Just want to avoid the Seton Hall or St. John's home crowd (and having to beat St. John's for the 3rd time in 14 days).

[AviatorX]

Would you rather play Nova or Marquette in the semis? Also, who do you want to play in the quarters, if given the choice

Butler/Georgetown and then Nova is definitely the ideal draw.

[AviatorX]

I think it's basically a guarantee that we get an at large if we win the next 4 games. Bubble is garbage

Agreed, if that's the case X will be white hot and have probably just lose the BE Final to Marquette. They'd be in (as ridiculous as it sounds).

[noteggs]

St. John's home crowd (and having to beat St. John's for the 3rd time in 14 days).

Holy crap good call.

[Masterofreality]

Nova in the semis. I'm not convinced we can beat Marquette. QFs I like Butler or Georgetown (maybe Creighton if that's still possible). Just want to avoid the Seton Hall or St. John's home crowd (and having to beat St. John's for the 3rd time in 14 days).

Agree.

[bleedXblue]

Both are tough match ups. I'll take Nova this year...........they seem a little more up and down......

[Masterofreality]

Both are tough match ups. I'll take Nova this year...........they seem a little more up and down......

I just see Marquette as Nova the last few years. They rain down 3's from all directions...by a LOT of guys.

[GoMuskies]

I've been looking at a lot of rankings, and to me the only ones that make sense this year are these by a genius named David Wilson. The NCAA Selection Committee should immediately adopt these as the SOLE criteria for determining a team's worthiness for an NCAA Tournament bid.

http://talismanred.com/ratings/hoops/divisioni.shtml

[GIMMFD]

I just see Marquette as Nova the last few years. They rain down 3's from all directions...by a LOT of guys.

Not to mention, Marcus Howard is almost unstoppable, the guy is an absolute monster. I agree though, Marquette have an incredible amount of shooters, and we just really don't match up well with that. Nova is looking vulnerable because Boothe and Pascall are gassed, I'd much rather try to beat them by slowing those two down than dealing with everyone on Marquette.


I've been looking at a lot of rankings, and to me the only ones that make sense this year are these by a genius named David Wilson. The NCAA Selection Committee should immediately adopt these as the SOLE criteria for determining a team's worthiness for an NCAA Tournament bid.

http://talismanred.com/ratings/hoops/divisioni.shtml

It has WVU at 50th tied with Butler, I don't even know how this guy remotely calculates his rankings lmfao.

[UCGRAD4X]

Nova in the semis. I'm not convinced we can beat Marquette. QFs I like Butler or Georgetown (maybe Creighton if that's still possible). Just want to avoid the Seton Hall or St. John's home crowd (and having to beat St. John's for the 3rd time in 14 days).

Gotta agree with this. I just worry that Wright is going to make sure these guys are tourney ready...been there done that and all.

It may be his super plan all along. Sneaky bastard. Straight out of the Xavier 'sneak up on 'em' approach.

[UCGRAD4X]

Ok. That being said...

Sure would be nice to beat Marquette at some point. The way we are taking it to teams, maybe this is more doable than we think given the reasent barage. The finals would be ok.

[paulxu]

I've been looking at a lot of rankings, and to me the only ones that make sense this year are these by a genius named David Wilson. The NCAA Selection Committee should immediately adopt these as the SOLE criteria for determining a team's worthiness for an NCAA Tournament bid.

http://talismanred.com/ratings/hoops/divisioni.shtml

That'll look even better once he updates it with last night's game.

[xubrew]

I think X is closer to getting in than what most people think. If they win four more I think they're in for sure, and they're all not just winnable, but probable. If they win three more, I think they're probably in. It's not a guarantee, but it's probable. X is an NCAA Tournament caliber team right now. They're actually a white-wearing-in-the-round-of-64 caliber team right now. The whole season matters, and it may cost them that it took so long to get there, but they're there. They can win the next four. They can win the next five, six, or seven.

Some fun trivia. Xavier has been to three Elite Eights. In the case of two of them, they weren't even being projected into the field on March 1st, AND they were coming off seasons where they had finished the regular season in the Top Ten, but had gone out in the Round of 32. X IS GOING TO THE ELITE EIGHT THIS YEAR!! All the indicators say so!!

[profson]

By definition an at large bid means we lost a BET game. It would be very difficult to get in with fifteen losses so as important as the number of additional wins is that two of them be in the regular season, that is Butler and St John’s.

[GoMuskies]

Xavier makes its first appearance on the Bracket Matrix today. Some dude named Jordan Schwartz is the first to put Xavier in the field. As a matter of fact, his entire First Four is Big East teams. A little cruel to Dayton to stage a mini-Big East Tournament in UD Arena, but I could live with it!

[UCGRAD4X]

I think X is closer to getting in than what most people think. If they win four more I think they're in for sure, and they're all not just winnable, but probable. If they win three more, I think they're probably in. It's not a guarantee, but it's probable. X is an NCAA Tournament caliber team right now. They're actually a white-wearing-in-the-round-of-64 caliber team right now. The whole season matters, and it may cost them that it took so long to get there, but they're there. They can win the next four. They can win the next five, six, or seven.

Some fun trivia. Xavier has been to three Elite Eights. In the case of two of them, they weren't even being projected into the field on March 1st, AND they were coming off seasons where they had finished the regular season in the Top Ten, but had gone out in the Round of 32. X IS GOING TO THE ELITE EIGHT THIS YEAR!! All the indicators say so!!

I like your thinking!

Perhaps since we will have come so far to get their this time....kind of like the rubber-band effect...it's been stretched so far....

FINAL FOUR!!!

[Xville]

I think X is closer to getting in than what most people think. If they win four more I think they're in for sure, and they're all not just winnable, but probable. If they win three more, I think they're probably in. It's not a guarantee, but it's probable. X is an NCAA Tournament caliber team right now. They're actually a white-wearing-in-the-round-of-64 caliber team right now. The whole season matters, and it may cost them that it took so long to get there, but they're there. They can win the next four. They can win the next five, six, or seven.

Some fun trivia. Xavier has been to three Elite Eights. In the case of two of them, they weren't even being projected into the field on March 1st, AND they were coming off seasons where they had finished the regular season in the Top Ten, but had gone out in the Round of 32. X IS GOING TO THE ELITE EIGHT THIS YEAR!! All the indicators say so!!

I'm here too..I think we are much closer than people think. We win these next two, and we are in the first four out category I believe, with the chance to play ourselves in the tourney during the bet.

[xu koop scoop]

If we beat Butler we'll be 5-4 in BE on the road & 5-6 overall on the road. See how many teams that are projected in have worse road records. Probably quite a few. Also, if we finish 10-8 in sole possession of 3rd place it helps. I'm sure we still need at least 1 BE Tourney win. They do look beyond KenPom & NET Rankings. That good road record might beat other similar bubble teams

[xukeith]

SJU and Seton Hall lose today.

SJU will be starving for a win at Cintas.
Both bubbles are bursting.(More Seton Hall)

[GoMuskies]

SJU and Seton Hall lose today.

SJU will be starving for a win at Cintas.
Both bubbles are bursting.(More Seton Hall)

Are you looking at women's scores or something? Hall plays later. SJU tomorrow.

[xukeith]

Are you looking at women's scores or something? Hall plays later. SJU tomorrow.

oops.
I looked at my phone at scores. I guess it was women!! lol!

[GoMuskies]

Butler, however, DID get pounded by Nova. That's a bubble that has to have essentially popped. Xavier can put the final needle in that mostly deflated mess on Tuesday.

[Xavgrad08]

San Francisco down by 9 to Loyola Marymount. 10 minutes left in the second half. Not sure if San Fran is still on the Bubble as they have lost the last two games.

[Xville]

Alabama lost, nc state lost, would be great for North Carolina to beat clemson...

[scoscox]

Is UCF safely in? I would think so right?

[BMoreX]

Is UCF safely in? I would think so right?

I would think after this win they would be.

[Xville]

I would think after this win they would be.

I think they pretty much were anyways but yeah I think assured of being in now. The top of that league is pretty darn strong...the middle and bottom is downright garbage though

[kellernr]

I think they pretty much were anyways but yeah I think assured of being in now. The top of that league is pretty darn strong...the middle and bottom is downright garbage thoughThey could lose to UC and Temple. Then lose thier 1st game in the aac tourney. Doubt that would knock them out but it could happen

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[kellernr]

Are we rooting for Gtown or Seton Hall tonight?

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[bjf123]

Are we rooting for Gtown or Seton Hall tonight?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

I’m wondering the same thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lloyd Braun]

Just win, baby.

I think Seton Hall has most difficult schedule ahead (Marquette, Nova) so I think we are rooting for them?

[kellernr]

Just win, baby.

I think Seton Hall has most difficult schedule ahead (Marquette, Nova) so I think we are rooting for them?Well they are going to overtime

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[AviatorX]

I’m wondering the same thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm rooting for whatever puts Georgetown and Butler on X's side of the bracket. Prefer to play them as opposed to St. Johns (again), Seton Hall or Creighton generally.

[Lloyd Braun]

Well they are going to overtime

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Utah... make that two.

[Lloyd Braun]

GT wins in 2OT. I think that would put them firmly in 4 seed if we can secure 3 seed and no major upsets occur...

Edit: nevermind St John’s hold tiebreaker with GT at the moment. I thought GT beat them twice for whatever reason.

[scoscox]

I'm rooting for whatever puts Georgetown and Butler on X's side of the bracket. Prefer to play them as opposed to St. Johns (again), Seton Hall or Creighton generally.

I'm a little leery of georgetown tbh they're dangerous

[GIMMFD]

I'm a little leery of georgetown tbh they're dangerous

Their freshman are getting better and better, definitely have a chance to be pretty good in the future. However, we are scorching hot right now, if we play like we have been the past few games, I'm confident we can beat almost anybody we step on the court with. A little confidence and momentum goes a long way.

[Xville]

We made it to lunardis next four out....got to think if we win next two, we are going to be in most brackets. Doesnt meant x can lose their first game in the bet, but they may be all x needs is that first one.

[xumuskies08]

I think that no matter where they come, 3 wins is the magic number.

Lose both Butler and St. Johns...have to win the BE tournament.
Lose one of Butler and St. Johns...have to get to the BE final.
Beat both Butler and St. Johns...have to get to the BE semi-final.

[bleedXblue]

I think that no matter where they come, 3 wins is the magic number.

Lose both Butler and St. Johns...have to win the BE tournament.
Lose one of Butler and St. Johns...have to get to the BE final.
Beat both Butler and St. Johns...have to get to the BE semi-final.

Agreed

I think 19 wins puts us right there. Greater than 50% chance of at large. Win 20 games.......I would put the probability around 80%

[D-West & PO-Z]

Man I am usually very optimistic but I would be surprised if 3 more wins puts us at greater than 50% chance. I think we get 4 and we are in. I am not super confident about getting in with just 3 more wins. I would put it at more like 25%. I would say 75% with 4 more. Maybe I am just being diswayed by a lot of what I am seeing out there. I dont get why neither ESPN or The Athletic have us in their bubble watch yet. Even though The Athletic talks about us extensively in their opening of the article. Wouldn't you think if 3 more wins gets us a better than 50% chance then we'd be more in the bubble watch conversation? It is good Lunardi moved us into his next four out though.

[profson]

I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again. 19 wins is just one piece of the puzzle. Equally important is only one more loss, which means that the 3 additional wins would ideally include Butler and St. John’s.
As for the idea that the committee does not pay much attention to conference tournament games, this a mischaracterization. What may be true is that it does not give special weight to those and that in most cases the profile is already fixed. If we are on the bubble and play another bubble team in the BET you can rest assured that the committee will be paying attention.

[GoMuskies]

I’m not worrying about it too much. There’s going to be a lot of action on the bubble this week. If Xavier gets two big wins, things are likely to sort themselves out.

[xukeith]

Butler, however, DID get pounded by Nova. That's a bubble that has to have essentially popped. Xavier can put the final needle in that mostly deflated mess on Tuesday.

Not quite a final needle. lose in 1st round of BE tourney= kiss hope goodbye. Lose to St, John's= kiss goodbye.

[xukeith]

Doesn't the selection committee compare resumes of 3-6 teams, SOS, NET, home vs. road wins, OOC, etc.

They will reward a bubble team if that team won their conferences regular season.
Bottom line each Section Sunday is SOS, quality wins, bad losses. Oh that quad thing too. X needs at least 4 Quad 1 wins to be a bubble team. Just win out !

[noteggs]

3-4 weeks ago, in this article you could’ve traded the name of Butler with X (minus the first couple of paragraphs). Hope hanging of heads and cold shooting continues.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/butler/2019/03/02/butler-basketball-must-do-some-soul-searching-after-blowout-loss-villanova/3043544002/

[Xavier]

A lot of stuff can happen to other bubble teams but if X losses either of last two I think they have to win BET. 19-15 wouldn’t be in at all IMO

[xukeith]

Man I am usually very optimistic but I would be surprised if 3 more wins puts us at greater than 50% chance. I think we get 4 and we are in. I am not super confident about getting in with just 3 more wins. I would put it at more like 25%. I would say 75% with 4 more. Maybe I am just being diswayed by a lot of what I am seeing out there. I dont get why neither ESPN or The Athletic have us in their bubble watch yet. Even though The Athletic talks about us extensively in their opening of the article. Wouldn't you think if 3 more wins gets us a better than 50% chance then we'd be more in the bubble watch conversation? It is good Lunardi moved us into his next four out though.

Totally agree. Just compare resumes.

[GIMMFD]

I feel good with 20 wins, win these two, win the first of the BET, and hopefully grab a second in the BET. 19 would be interesting for discussion I think, it's nice that Lunardi moved us up to first 4 out, if the guys can stay hungry and win against Butler and Johnsie at home, I'd like to think we would be at a legitimate 50/50, and then the Big East Tournament is to solidify things. Let's hope the rest of the bubble collectively shits their pants as well moving forward.

[GoMuskies]

Is this going to put Creighton back on the bubble? Think they'd like to have back that last second idiocy from their first meeting with Marquette in Omaha?

[JTG]

Tuesday makes me nervous. Win that, and I think Sat will be a given. Basically I hate playing Butler, even though we've had pretty good luck the last few years. I'll sleep better once we get past Tuesday.

[bjf123]

Tuesday makes me nervous. Win that, and I think Sat will be a given. Basically I hate playing Butler, even though we've had pretty good luck the last few years. I'll sleep better once we get past Tuesday.

Agreed. I don’t have a good feeling about that game.


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[Xville]

Agreed. I don’t have a good feeling about that game.


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Yeah as good as x is playing, and as crap as butler has been, I still dont feel good about this game at all.

[markchal]

Yeah, I don't have a great feeling about Butler either, but I think it's because we can't possibly keep up this pace. Also, because Butler seems to be the least intimidating team during this run (we will still be underdogs right? They are at home and ranked 30 spots higher). Still, as much as I wish this team could've put it together a couple weeks earlier, I feel a lot better about the future thanks to the last two weeks. I think it definitely takes 20 to get in, and I don't love having to beat either Nova or Marquette in NYC, but at least we have a reason to watch.

[JTG]

We do have a very big advantage inside, providing we don't get screwed by the officials. And it's their Senior nite.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi has 5 Big East teams among the last four in through second four out. If we win twice this week, we HAVE to be ahead of St. John’s, no?

[AviatorX]

Is this going to put Creighton back on the bubble? Think they'd like to have back that last second idiocy from their first meeting with Marquette in Omaha?

Or throwing an alley oop to Goodin up 2 with the shot clock off at Cintas...

[D-West & PO-Z]

I feel good with 20 wins, win these two, win the first of the BET, and hopefully grab a second in the BET. 19 would be interesting for discussion I think, it's nice that Lunardi moved us up to first 4 out, if the guys can stay hungry and win against Butler and Johnsie at home, I'd like to think we would be at a legitimate 50/50, and then the Big East Tournament is to solidify things. Let's hope the rest of the bubble collectively shits their pants as well moving forward.

Lunardi has us in next four out from what I am seeing and it was updated today. So he has us at 6th out.

He has Georgetown and Creighton as 7th and 8th out.

[Xville]

We finally made bubble watch on espn. Essentially says what most have said.....win next two, win 1 in bet, and that may get it done.

[Xville]

Looking at the teams from the Last Four Byes to the next Four out, there are a lot of completely mediocre teams vying for 8 spots. Maybe it is because I haven't paid attention to the bubble the last couple of years but geez its a collective group of blah...Glad to be one of those blah teams though :)

[X-band '01]

Rob Dauster at NBCSports.com has St. John's safely in, Seton Hall Last 4 In, Xavier/Georgetown First Four Out and Providence/Creighton Next Four Out.

Only Butler and DePaul not mentioned.

[dethwing]

Looking at the teams from the Last Four Byes to the next Four out, there are a lot of completely mediocre teams vying for 8 spots. Maybe it is because I haven't paid attention to the bubble the last couple of years but geez its a collective group of blah...Glad to be one of those blah teams though :)

It's always like that. A mix of mediocre big conference teams with not great records and some decent small conference teams with sparkling records and very little quality.

[GoMuskies]

I'm sure this won't get anyone super excited....but the only people I can find who bother to do NIT projections currently have Xavier as a #3 seed hosting Utah. I'd have certainly been thrilled with this two weeks ago.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2019/3/1/18246359/nitology-penn-state-nittany-lions-nit-at-large-bid

[SemajParlor]

Being cautiously optimistic here. There is always a few at large spots lost due to tournament winners that weren't in before. I think it's going to take more than 2 and 1 in the BE but let's see. It's amazing this is even a discussion.

[muskiefan82]

Wow. It is entirely possible that EVERY Big East team could be in the NCAA and NIT tournament. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Has any conference ever done that?

[Snipe]

Xavier is now in 1 of 102 brackets in the bracket matrix.

It’s a start.

Bracketmatrix.com

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm sure this won't get anyone super excited....but the only people I can find who bother to do NIT projections currently have Xavier as a #3 seed hosting Utah. I'd have certainly been thrilled with this two weeks ago.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2019/3/1/18246359/nitology-penn-state-nittany-lions-nit-at-large-bid

Does the lower seed host each round until Final 4 at MSG? So if X won that and the 5 seed won they would host another game at Cintas?

[GoMuskies]

I think that's right. Can't say I've paid enough attention to the NIT in the past decade to know for sure, though.

[STL_XUfan]

Xavier is now in 1 of 102 brackets in the bracket matrix.

It’s a start.

Bracketmatrix.com

Everyone knows that this Jordan Schwartz guy is the best bracketoligist in the game.

[paulxu]

Big East


On Friday, Bubble Watch doffed its (totally rad, definitely still-in-style mesh Von Dutch) cap to Xavier, perhaps the only team in the country making a genuine last-ditch out-of-nowhere bubble push. At least the Musketeers, winners of five straight, were (are!) keeping things interesting. A few days later, that honor applies just as easily to the wider Big East bubble. Georgetown is in the mix! Creighton is back from the dead! St. John’s refuses to make life simple! Ditto Seton Hall! Butler finally fell off the bubble for real! Anarchy! ANARCHY!

https://theathletic.com/850473/2019/03/05/bubble-watch-welcome-to-lock-purgatory-now-please-take-a-seat/

How can a team with a 6-12 conference record (Indiana) still be on the bubble?

[xudash]

Big East



https://theathletic.com/850473/2019/03/05/bubble-watch-welcome-to-lock-purgatory-now-please-take-a-seat/

How can a team with a 6-12 conference record (Indiana) still be on the bubble?

As it has been explained ad nauseum over the telly, due to their stack of impressive Q1 wins.

[GoMuskies]

Because of who they've beaten in winning those six games.

[bobbiemcgee]

"Lock it in" just picked X as their longshot favorite to win the BET @ 14 to 1.

[stammina0721]

"Lock it in" just picked X as their longshot favorite to win the BET @ 14 to 1.

Those a really good odds. I want that action

[xubrew]

I think X is closer to getting in than what most people think. If they win four more I think they're in for sure, and they're all not just winnable, but probable. If they win three more, I think they're probably in. It's not a guarantee, but it's probable. X is an NCAA Tournament caliber team right now. They're actually a white-wearing-in-the-round-of-64 caliber team right now. The whole season matters, and it may cost them that it took so long to get there, but they're there. They can win the next four. They can win the next five, six, or seven.

Some fun trivia. Xavier has been to three Elite Eights. In the case of two of them, they weren't even being projected into the field on March 1st, AND they were coming off seasons where they had finished the regular season in the Top Ten, but had gone out in the Round of 32. X IS GOING TO THE ELITE EIGHT THIS YEAR!! All the indicators say so!!

I'm sometimes amazed at just how many things I say end up being wrong. I take FULL responsibility! Had I not said anything X would have won.

[Xavier]

Well- now they have to get the auto bid. Too tough a hole to climb out of

[bjf123]

The bubble might be weak, but it just popped for us.


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[Snipe]

So I guess we might as well just win the whole damn thing.

I am going to Madison Square Gardens.

The rest is history.

[xumuskies08]

I, for one, still think there's a shot at an at-large bid. A small shot, but a shot nonetheless. Winning the next 3 is a must. Beat St. Johns to keep the .500 streak alive, beat whoever the #6 seed ends up being, and beat either Nova or Marquette in the semis. Then, provided a good showing in the title game, I think the door is open. Muskies would have 15 losses, yes, but they would also have the Q1/Q2 wins to stack up against any other bubble team, plus the NET/Kenpom rating would presumably be up in the low 60s or high 50s.

I think the auto bid is far more likely, but I'm not buying the "our bubble has popped" talk quite yet.