Bracketology 8/5

[D-West & PO-Z]

Ridiculous I know.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

XU a 9 seed

Lunardi added:


"We touched a bit above on the Big East, which Villanova has dominated to the tune of a 32-4 league record (.889) the past two seasons. The good news for Year 3 of the reconfigured conference is that Villanova might be just as good -- count me among the Jalen Brunson fans -- while the likes of Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Marquette and St. John's all look as good or better than we thought in April. A lesser seed for the Wildcats could actually signify improvement for the conference overall."

[MuskieXU]

A 9 seed seems fair given the question marks we have. If Jalen and Sumner live up to their potential I would imagine we'll get a better seed than 9, but that has yet to be seen.

[X-band '01]

If St. John's makes the tournament this upcoming season, Chris Mullin will be Big East coach of the year.

[Murph85]

UC at 8. Wow. They must be ready to have one hell of a season.

[Xavier]

8 seed really isn't a hell of a season. I think UC will be a consistent tournament team as long as they stay in the AAC. I expect Xavier to be better than 9 this year. Kind of silly to say without seeing them play one bit but I think 7 seed is right around where I peg them.

[XMuskieFTW]

We will be a 5. It is written.

[casualfan]

If St. John's makes the tournament this upcoming season, Chris Mullin will be Big East coach of the year.

I think if St. John's makes the NIT Mullin might get run as BE COY.

Think of just about anyone who contributed to St. John's last year. Those people are all gone.

Harrison, Pointer, Greene and Branch all graduated. Jordan and Obekpa left.

Their best returning player from a statistical standpoint is Amar Alibegovic who averaged a whopping 1.5 pts and 1.5 boards in 8.4 minutes per game.

They added some solid recruits, but they are basically starting from scratch. New coach and for all intents and purposes a bunch of guys who have never really played together.

IMO they're going to be pretty bad year 1.

[XUFan09]

We will be a 5. It is written.
I've been of the opinion since the season ended that this next team will be a little worse offensively and much better defensively. In that context, moving from the last six seed to a five seed sounds about right.

[X-band '01]

Given that Xavier's OOC isn't as demanding as last year, you probably need a 10-8 or 11-7 record in the Big East to get to a 7 or even a 6 seed. As Georgetown showed last year, it is possible to get 12 wins (which included a split with Villanova and a sweep of Butler) in conference play and even get a protected seed in the NCAAs (they also had a neutral court win over Indiana and had a schedule that included Kansas, Wisconsin and Butler (in Atlantis).

[xufan2434]

I honestly expect better than a 9 seed with the talent on this team.. But I can't blame the spot. I really hope this is the year where Mack breaks out from all those mid season struggles where the team is trying to find itself and shows up to games asleep. Can't go through another season like that with the constant question marks and ups and downs. I know Big East season is tough, but he needs to find a way to get more than 2 wins in a row.

That is what's going to start separating them from the other programs.

[drudy23]

A 9 seed seems fair given the question marks we have. If Jalen and Sumner live up to their potential I would imagine we'll get a better seed than 9, but that has yet to be seen.

I don't get this. I see some young guys and some experienced guys that can play, but I don't see question marks. If that's the case, then every team would be a 9 with question marks, while hoping for potential to bloom. Our "potential" is better than a 9 seed.

I see us in the 4-7 range.

[casualfan]

I don't get this. I see some young guys and some experienced guys that can play, but I don't see question marks. If that's the case, then every team would be a 9 with question marks, while hoping for potential to bloom. Our "potential" is better than a 9 seed.

I see us in the 4-7 range.

I think it's fair to say we have question marks.

PG is obviously the biggest and I think it'd be fair to say we have some question marks down low behind Jalen and Jimmy.

They're not huge question marks, but question marks nonetheless.

[waggy]

PG is a pretty big question mark in my mind.

Looking forward to the season.

[SC in DC]

If ST John's makes the CBI (or whatever it is?) Mullins should be National COY!

[D-West & PO-Z]

If ST John's makes the CBI (or whatever it is?) Mullins should be National COY!

Or even the CIT.

[X-band '01]

If ST John's makes the CBI (or whatever it is?) Mullins should be National COY!

Doubt St. John's would accept such a bid; Colorado was the only major program that said yes to the CBI last season.


Or even the CIT.

Now that would be something since the CIT is only open to mid-majors and below.

[X-man]

Lunardi had Xavier as a 7 seed right after the tournament. It would be interesting to know what he views as the reason why Xavier dropped 8 spots in his Bracketology since then. He's a tool. Xavier will be no worse that a 6 seed next tournament.

[MuskieCinci]

Lunardi had Xavier as a 7 seed right after the tournament. It would be interesting to know what he views as the reason why Xavier dropped 8 spots in his Bracketology since then. He's a tool. Xavier will be no worse that a 6 seed next tournament.

Probably just more to do with other teams moving up for whatever reasons. Some guys like DSR came back to school after declaring, some other teams scored some spring commits.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lunardi had Xavier as a 7 seed right after the tournament. It would be interesting to know what he views as the reason why Xavier dropped 8 spots in his Bracketology since then. He's a tool. Xavier will be no worse that a 6 seed next tournament.

XU was also in the Way to early Top 25 and is not in the updated one today.

[XUFan09]

I really like the addition of Rashid Gaston for 2016-2017, but Xavier made no off-season moves for 2015-2016. If other equivalent teams did make such moves, there's a good chance they would leapfrog Xavier.

[gladdenguy]

I think by March this team can be really good after Mack figures out the 1 spot. It would be nice this year (for my heart especially) to be off the bubble and comfortably in.
I agree with Drudy. 4-7 range sounds about right with the ability to play with anyone and do some damage in the big tourney.

[XUFan09]

I don't get this. I see some young guys and some experienced guys that can play, but I don't see question marks. If that's the case, then every team would be a 9 with question marks, while hoping for potential to bloom. Our "potential" is better than a 9 seed.

I see us in the 4-7 range.
I would agree with this sentiment if the young guys were at any other position besides point guard.

Because of that, I think it qualifies as a question mark.

[bobbiemcgee]

I think if Sumner stays healthy, PG will be his after maybe some early stumbles. Can't teach speed and quickness. Love the length and build. Should be a very athletic/talented team and will get up and down better without Matt.(yes, I know we all loved him)

[Backyard Champ]

Personally, I think we are making the tournament, easy. Though I feel a lot of people are underestimating the loss of Stainbrook. Reynolds had flashes of greatness, but no where near consistent enough for me to say Xavier is top 6 seed.

Obviously that can change, but Stainbrook was a huge part of our offense last year.

[Juice]

Personally, I think we are making the tournament, easy. Though I feel a lot of people are underestimating the loss of Stainbrook. Reynolds had flashes of greatness, but no where near consistent enough for me to say Xavier is top 6 seed.

Obviously that can change, but Stainbrook was a huge part of our offense last year.

I'm kind of with you. I see this coming year's team being comparable to this past season's team in their overall finish but using a different style to get there. I see their ceiling as a Sweet 16 but their floor as a first round (actual first round not play in game) exit.

[LA Muskie]

If I was an outsider looking at our roster, I'd be thinking an 8-9 seed. As someone who follows our team more closely, I'd put it at 6-11.

[MuskieXU]

Personally, I think we are making the tournament, easy. Though I feel a lot of people are underestimating the loss of Stainbrook. Reynolds had flashes of greatness, but no where near consistent enough for me to say Xavier is top 6 seed.

Obviously that can change, but Stainbrook was a huge part of our offense last year.

Agreed on Stainbrook/Reynolds. Reynolds has all the potential in the world to pick up where Stain left off, but whether he can do that consistently while staying out of foul trouble is yet to be seen. If Jalen picks up 2 quick fouls or has an off game, can Farr and OMara play well enough to keep us in the game for extended periods of time? This is still a question mark.

Overall I will say the same thing I said about last years team. The team is still young and, due to a lack of experience especially at the PG position, will experience some unexpected bumps and bruises earlier in the year. Assuming Mack does his job (which he did fantastically last year) this team will come together in February and March and be a Top 25ish team with the potential to make a run in the tourney.

[X-Fan]

I see Myles playing absolutely out if his mind this season, and this team with a 4 seed.

[DC Muskie]

I wonder when we will start expecting to contend for BE titles, rather than bring up the idea that we have question marks.

It's college basketball. We will always be "young." We will always have "question" marks.

If this team ends up being an 8 or 9 seed, that would be hugely disappointing.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I could see as high as a 4 seed, I would be very disappointed with anything lower than a 9 seed. Honestly on a year to year basis I expect the Xavier program to be going for a top 7 seed.

The biggest thing that will hurt next year, especially initially, is that we lost our two best passers from last years team in Dee and Stainbrook. No matter how much Jalen breaks out he wont be able to do what Stain did in the vision/passing dept. So it is imperative that One or all of Sumner, LA, and Myles step up to lead the team at PG.

I do think we will be overall more athletic and quicker and I expect us to be better defensively. I also expect a big year from Myles. As always I predict early growing pains but I think this team has all the ability to be better than last years team.

[Xville]

How long are we going to go with the "we are young" story as a reason to why the team is up and down thru the season?

We are going to have 1 maybe 2 (the 2nd in very limited action) freshmen even in the rotation this year...the "we are young" diatribe is getting really old, and its time to close the book on it.

[XUFan09]

How long are we going to go with the "we are young" story as a reason to why the team is up and down thru the season?

We are going to have 1 maybe 2 (the 2nd in very limited action) freshmen even in the rotation this year...the "we are young" diatribe is getting really old, and its time to close the book on it.
I was about to say that it was true last year but definitely untrue this year. This might not be a veteran-laden team but it's also not young. Now, the point guard position specifically might be young (because I don't expect Myles to start there all season), but most of the remaining rotation is composed of upperclassmen and sophomores who played significant minutes last year.

[xufan2434]

To the people that are saying losing Stain is going to be under estimated.. I would say the progression of TB is being under estimated. He should be the best player on this team next year. Jalen has raw talent, but doesn't have the mental aspect that TB has. He's going to be a stud this year, and I agree that I'm expecting a huge year from Myles. Factor in Remy's defense and 41% shooting from 3 and this team is going to be solid. They aren't going to have to go through the block and kick out. The talent is on the wings and with the guards. Let them create. Also expect a nice jump, but probably with some slumps, from JP. All those young guys from last year are a year older and have confidence through the roof.. That goes a long way come March

[kyxu]

To the people that are saying losing Stain is going to be under estimated.. I would say the progression of TB is being under estimated. He should be the best player on this team next year. Jalen has raw talent, but doesn't have the mental aspect that TB has. He's going to be a stud this year, and I agree that I'm expecting a huge year from Myles. Factor in Remy's defense and 41% shooting from 3 and this team is going to be solid. They aren't going to have to go through the block and kick out. The talent is on the wings and with the guards. Let them create. Also expect a nice jump, but probably with some slumps, from JP. All those young guys from last year are a year older and have confidence through the roof.. That goes a long way come March

Exactly. We lost two key guys in Stainbrook and Dee, but don't forget that we have a lot of talent that will only get more experienced. We needed to run the offense through Stain because, with young guards/wings, we had to emphasize our strong suit, which was an experienced, skilled, and heady post presence through which the offense could be facilitated. I'm not expecting any kind of drop-off from last year.

[xu82]

Exactly. We lost two key guys in Stainbrook and Dee, but don't forget that we have a lot of talent that will only get more experienced. We needed to run the offense through Stain because, with young guards/wings, we had to emphasize our strong suit, which was an experienced, skilled, and heady post presence through which the offense could be facilitated. I'm not expecting any kind of drop-off from last year.

I'm trying not to think of it in terms of better or worse yet (though hopefully it's the former), but it will certainly be different. No one else does quite what Stain could do. But that's OK as they do different things. I hope the PG youth doesn't hold us back early, and fully expect to get better as the year goes on. Again.

[LA Muskie]

I'm a huge TB fan so I don't want this to come out the wrong way. But I have concerns about the trajectory of his development. He has well documented physical limitations and it seemed to me he struggled mightily once defenses game-planned him.

Macura may be less skilled, but with his athleticism and coaching I think a healthy JP could be the dark horse in terms of sheer offseason improvement.

Well...aside from Sumner, who probably doesn't qualify as a dark horse given the reports that have leaked out...

[XUFan09]

There's some truth to what you're saying about Trevon. I would argue, though, that the game-plan against him was much easier to execute because of his weight gain over the season. Now that he has a better understanding of what he needs to do to keep in shape, he should be able to maintain a leaner, more athletic build. I'm guessing those game-plans won't be nearly as effective then.

I do agree, however, that JP has crazy upside that often gets overlooked. It's hard to stop a guy with his playmaking talent and athleticism who can also knock down the three. He needs coaching, but like you said, the offseason could be really good to him.

[MADXSTER]

TB averaged 12 ppg and led the team in scoring. Very few freshman average over 10 per game. Did he drop off as the year progressed...yes but that is due more to tired legs than anything else. He was missing some open shots.

For a 1/4 of the season(just before the end of the regular season) Stain had a hard time finishing around the basket. That should not be forgotten.

Xavier lost two pieces but other teams have lost just as much if not more. Xavier will be just fine. I don't know how any Xavier fan cannot be excited about the upcoming season.

[LA Muskie]

I don't know anyone who said they weren't excited.

[xukeith]

Given this might be Reynolds last year, he did predict a Final 4 led by him.
So X better be a 2-4 seed.

[Always Learning]

Given that Xavier's OOC isn't as demanding as last year, you probably need a 10-8 or 11-7 record in the Big East to get to a 7 or even a 6 seed. As Georgetown showed last year, it is possible to get 12 wins (which included a split with Villanova and a sweep of Butler) in conference play and even get a protected seed in the NCAAs (they also had a neutral court win over Indiana and had a schedule that included Kansas, Wisconsin and Butler (in Atlantis).


And it was just a year ago some posters (not necessarily you) that our weak OOC would keep us out of the dance. It wasn't and it didn't. I can't understand anyone thinking (and this time it is you) that we have a "weak OOC. A Turkey Tournament has us playing the likes of Notre Dame, Wichita State, Iowa, et al and that is certainly an upgrade over UTEP, USC, et al, wouldn't you say?. We have UC, Michigan, Alabama and Missouri on tap. OK, pre-season strengths don't have 'Bama and Mizz heading to the Final Four, but schedules are made 3-4 years in advance. Gads, I remember just a few years back when there were posters hoping we could get WKU on the schedule as a real upgrade. Just like last year, our OOC will be an asset as the season goes along.

[XUFan09]

Given this might be Reynolds last year, he did predict a Final 4 led by him.
So X better be a 2-4 seed.
If the point guard question is resolved early on, I think X will fall in this range or just below it.

[drudy23]

There's some truth to what you're saying about Trevon. I would argue, though, that the game-plan against him was much easier to execute because of his weight gain over the season. Now that he has a better understanding of what he needs to do to keep in shape, he should be able to maintain a leaner, more athletic build. I'm guessing those game-plans won't be nearly as effective then.

I do agree, however, that JP has crazy upside that often gets overlooked. It's hard to stop a guy with his playmaking talent and athleticism who can also knock down the three. He needs coaching, but like you said, the offseason could be really good to him.

How on earth can those guys gain weight over the course of the season? It just doesn't seem possible with all the basketball they play.

TB's development is in his own hands. He has the skills...he work ethic will dictate his trajectory.

JP is a four year player, and he will get better every year. He will be a critical piece on this team...not the most talented, but super important.

[XUFan09]

How on earth can those guys gain weight over the course of the season? It just doesn't seem possible with all the basketball they play.

TB's development is in his own hands. He has the skills...he work ethic will dictate his trajectory.

JP is a four year player, and he will get better every year. He will be a critical piece on this team...not the most talented, but super important.
When you're burning a lot of calories, you crave a lot of calories and the Caf is all-you-can-eat. I can easily see over-portioning because your body is yelling at you to eat a lot. Combine that with the "fat kid gene" that one person amusingly labeled him as having (the same one Myles seems to have), and it's not crazy to think he could gain weight.

[MuskieXU]

How long are we going to go with the "we are young" story as a reason to why the team is up and down thru the season?

We are going to have 1 maybe 2 (the 2nd in very limited action) freshmen even in the rotation this year...the "we are young" diatribe is getting really old, and its time to close the book on it.

On second consideration, perhaps you are right. In the past we used to recruit players who would take a couple years before they could contribute in a meaningful way but thats really not the case anymore. We have the recruiting to be able to compete year in and year out regardless of how many juniors and seniors we have. The next step for the program is becoming a perennial Top 25 team and BE regular season title contender and in order to do that we need to cut out the horrible road losses.

[principal]

On second consideration, perhaps you are right. In the past we used to recruit players who would take a couple years before they could contribute in a meaningful way but thats really not the case anymore. We have the recruiting to be able to compete year in and year out regardless of how many juniors and seniors we have. The next step for the program is becoming a perennial Top 25 team and BE regular season title contender and in order to do that we need to cut out the horrible road losses.

And figure out how to beat Villanova.

[X-band '01]

And it was just a year ago some posters (not necessarily you) that our weak OOC would keep us out of the dance. It wasn't and it didn't. I can't understand anyone thinking (and this time it is you) that we have a "weak OOC. A Turkey Tournament has us playing the likes of Notre Dame, Wichita State, Iowa, et al and that is certainly an upgrade over UTEP, USC, et al, wouldn't you say?. We have UC, Michigan, Alabama and Missouri on tap. OK, pre-season strengths don't have 'Bama and Mizz heading to the Final Four, but schedules are made 3-4 years in advance. Gads, I remember just a few years back when there were posters hoping we could get WKU on the schedule as a real upgrade. Just like last year, our OOC will be an asset as the season goes along.

Just because a schedule has recognizable names like Alabama and Missouri and Wake Forest in itself does not make a demanding schedule. Those 3 teams have a distinct possibility of finishing near the bottom of their conferences. Auburn should be better than last year, but even that's not a given.

Stephen F. Austin and Murray State won't be known to the average fan, but those were 2 good wins that Xavier got last year. The closest school that there is on the schedule this year is Western Kentucky. Not exactly in the category of those 2 teams right now.

[Juice]

Just because a schedule has recognizable names like Alabama and Missouri and Wake Forest in itself does not make a demanding schedule. Those 3 teams have a distinct possibility of finishing near the bottom of their conferences. Auburn should be better than last year, but even that's not a given.

Stephen F. Austin and Murray State won't be known to the average fan, but those were 2 good wins that Xavier got last year. The closest school that there is on the schedule this year is Western Kentucky. Not exactly in the category of those 2 teams right now.

I call this the "Dad View on Scheduling". If you ask my dad he would be really excited seeing those names on the schedule and then would not understand that those teams will most likely suck and hurt our schedule. And then I would try to explain how much SFA would help our schedule and it hurt his brain.

[xufan2434]

I agree with just about everything that has been said about the scheduling. X is really missing that 1 marquee game to look forward to. However, it is formidable and clearly didn't hurt the team last year. If X can break the funk in the Thanksgiving tournament, then they play Alabama, Wichita, possibly Notre Dame/Dayton. That on top of playing UC and Michigan should do the trick. Just need to avoid bad losses again.

[mistabeecee41]

Addition by subtraction baby. Game moves faster without Stain. Sumner provides a scoring punch from the point position. Jalen benefits from more PT and post touches. We compete with Nova for the BE title and end up a 3-4 seed.

[XUFan09]

Addition by subtraction baby. Game moves faster without Stain. Sumner provides a scoring punch from the point position. Jalen benefits from more PT and post touches. We compete with Nova for the BE title and end up a 3-4 seed.
It's hard to overcome the loss of two of the best passers of the last decade. That said, this roster has a lot of scorers who should improve significantly. Myles really was coming into his own last year and looks poised for a break-out year, while Trevon and J.P. should make the sophomore jump. If Jalen is more consistent (I think he will be), that makes for a potent offensive lineup. Defense will be unquestionably improved.

[D-West & PO-Z]

It's hard to overcome the loss of two of the best passers of the last decade. That said, this roster has a lot of scorers who should improve significantly. Myles really was coming into his own last year and looks poised for a break-out year, while Trevon and J.P. should make the sophomore jump. If Jalen is more consistent (I think he will be), that makes for a potent offensive lineup. Defense will be unquestionably improved.

I felt like last year too JP had some pretty incredible passes. Hopefully he continue to build off that as well.

[XUFan09]

I felt like last year too JP had some pretty incredible passes. Hopefully he continue to build off that as well.
He definitely did. J.P. was good at the home-run pass, and Myles was good at getting inside the arc and creating for himself or others. Stain and Dee were good in similar situations too, but what set them apart was how good they were at the smart, subtle passes to get the offense going and the assists to the assist.

[MuskieCinci]

I agree with just about everything that has been said about the scheduling. X is really missing that 1 marquee game to look forward to. However, it is formidable and clearly didn't hurt the team last year. If X can break the funk in the Thanksgiving tournament, then they play Alabama, Wichita, possibly Notre Dame/Dayton. That on top of playing UC and Michigan should do the trick. Just need to avoid bad losses again.

I will go ahead and assume we defeat Alabama and end up playing Wichita State, who is probably a lock to be in the top 15. The ND/Dayton/Iowa game will also be a top 30ish opponent, as well as Michigan. UC has a chance as well to be pretty highly regarded. I assume your definition of a marquee game though must be fairly high like the Duke neutral site game or when Tennessee came to Cintas and they were top 5.

[XUFan09]

I call this the "Dad View on Scheduling". If you ask my dad he would be really excited seeing those names on the schedule and then would not understand that those teams will most likely suck and hurt our schedule. And then I would try to explain how much SFA would help our schedule and it hurt his brain.
Ha, I love this.

[xu82]

Ha, I love this.

Hey now, don't encourage him... He was hurting the man's brain!