Are We Still Alive for a Bye?

[profson]

If

- VCU beats Temple
- XU beats BU
- UMass losses to BU or URI

then

XU and Temple (and maybe Butler) are at 10-6 and XU gets 4th place via the win over Temple (and win over Butler)

QED?

Don't shoot me if I am wrong. Need second opinion.

[X-band '01]

You're correct. Only UMass would have a tiebreaker over Xavier should the Muskies win at Hinkle.

It could happen - Butler's in a freefall right now.

[joe titan]

do not overlook LaSalle who now stands 11-4; would need to lose both remaining games

[GoMuskies]

We can't catch LaSalle.

[nuts4xu]

If we don't get the bye, do we have to host a game at the Cintas Center? Or is the format different this year with 16 teams?

[GoMuskies]

All 12 teams go to Brooklyn this year.

[nuts4xu]

All 12 teams go to Brooklyn this year.

And 4 teams don't make it at all, correct? This was my guess, thanks for confirming Go.

[GoMuskies]

Correct. Better still, there's a very realistic possibility that Dayton will be 13th if they lose at GW this weekend.

[DC Muskie]

In the past didn't someone update the tournament seeding? I could really use that information as I am too lazy to look it up myself and think about who will play who, where in the A10 tournament.

[GoMuskies]

xu95's thread from the A-10 Board doing just that.

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-10-conference/482546-if-season-ended-today-updated-through-games-3-6-a.html

[GIMMFD]

4 in 4 is what we're looking at pretty much.... #FEEDTHESTREAK

[A10fan]

X can easily get a 4th seed and the bye. Need the following:

Umass to lose to Butler tonight. Tough call but doable
X beats Butler on Sat. Tough but ..
VCU beats Temple on Sunday. Both teams have alot at stake.

That puts Temple, Butler, and X at 10-6 and X holds the tie breakers.

[DC Muskie]

xu95's thread from the A-10 Board doing just that.

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-10-conference/482546-if-season-ended-today-updated-through-games-3-6-a.html

So if I am reading that correctly, we would play SJU in the opening round?

[GoMuskies]

You have to go nearer to the end of the thread for the update through last night. Xavier would be the #6 playing #11 SBU if the season ended today. But there's basically zero chance of that seeding holding.

[XU '11]

If my tie-breaking skills are accurate, UMass's results mean nothing to us (in regard to getting the bye). If we win and Temple loses to VCU, we clinch the 4 seed. Here's why:

In that scenario, us and Temple both finish with 10 wins. We beat Temple.

If Butler beats UMass tonight, they would join us in that tie at 10 wins, but we would have beaten both Butler and Temple, so we clinch the 4 seed.

If Butler loses to UMass tonight, UMass could join the tie at 10 wins with a win over Rhody. In that case X, Tem and UMass would all be 1-1 against each other. So we go to record against the best team in the conference and work down. We don't know how #1-3 will break down yet, but it doesn't matter. LS lost to all 3 teams, VCU beat all 3 teams, but SLU beat Umass while losing to X and Temple. X and Temple gain the advantage and revert back to H2H where X clinches the bye.


This logic could very well be flawed so please let me know if it is....

[Masterofreality]

If my tie-breaking skills are accurate, UMass's results mean nothing to us (in regard to getting the bye). If we win and Temple loses to VCU, we clinch the 4 seed. Here's why:

In that scenario, us and Temple both finish with 10 wins. We beat Temple.

If Butler beats UMass tonight, they would join us in that tie at 10 wins, but we would have beaten both Butler and Temple, so we clinch the 4 seed.

If Butler loses to UMass tonight, UMass could join the tie at 10 wins with a win over Rhody. In that case X, Tem and UMass would all be 1-1 against each other. So we go to record against the best team in the conference and work down. We don't know how #1-3 will break down yet, but it doesn't matter. LS lost to all 3 teams, VCU beat all 3 teams, but SLU beat Umass while losing to X and Temple. X and Temple gain the advantage and revert back to H2H where X clinches the bye.


This logic could very well be flawed so please let me know if it is....

You are 100% correct sir. We have to win and VCU needs to beat Temple. Pure and simple.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

If my tie-breaking skills are accurate, UMass's results mean nothing to us (in regard to getting the bye). If we win and Temple loses to VCU, we clinch the 4 seed. Here's why:

In that scenario, us and Temple both finish with 10 wins. We beat Temple.

If Butler beats UMass tonight, they would join us in that tie at 10 wins, but we would have beaten both Butler and Temple, so we clinch the 4 seed.

If Butler loses to UMass tonight, UMass could join the tie at 10 wins with a win over Rhody. In that case X, Tem and UMass would all be 1-1 against each other. So we go to record against the best team in the conference and work down. We don't know how #1-3 will break down yet, but it doesn't matter. LS lost to all 3 teams, VCU beat all 3 teams, but SLU beat Umass while losing to X and Temple. X and Temple gain the advantage and revert back to H2H where X clinches the bye.


This logic could very well be flawed so please let me know if it is....

Absolutely correct. I was wrong about UMass as well. Their results will have no impact with us

[XUFan09]

I don't feel too bad for them, but it sucks for UMass. They may tie for 4th place, but it's impossible for them to get the 4 seed.

[profson]

Butler and XU are equally motivated. The winner of that game on Saturday lives on to hope that it gets the last bye if VCU beats Temple on Sunday. Temple will be highly motivated as a bye is on the line for them. VCU will be highly motivated if La Salle beats St. Louis on Saturday as VCU, with a victory, would secure the top seed.

[BMoreX]

Taken from the A10 board:


Through 3/7

First Round Bye:
1. Saint Louis 12-3* (vs LSU)
2. Virginia Commonwealth 12-3 (@Temple)
3. La Salle 11-4 (@SLU)
4. Butler 10-5^ (vs X)

Opening Round Games:
5. Temple 10-5 (vs VCU)
6. Xavier 9-6 (@BU)
7. Massachusetts 8-7$ (@URI)
8. Saint Joseph's 8-7 (@Char)
9. Dayton 7-8### (@GW)
10. Richmond 7-8## (vs Duq)
11. St. Bonaventure 7-8# (vs Ford)
12. Charlotte 7-8 (vs SJU)

Going Home Early:
13. George Washington 6-9 (vs UD)
14. Rhode Island 3-12 (vs Umass)
15. Fordham 2-13 (@SBU)
16. Duquesne 1-14 (@Rich)

*beat VCU head to head
^beat Temple head to head
$beat St Joe's head to head
### based on 3-0 against other 7-8 teams
## based on 2-1 against other 7-8 teams
# based on 1-2 against other 7-8 teams (Charlotte 0-3)

If Xavier beats Butler and VCU beats Temple, Xavier will get the bye.

It's crazy to think a 7-9 team won't make the tournament.

[GoMuskies]

So best upside is 4th and worst downside is 8th. Not bad considering the kind of year it's been.

[MD Muskie]

I really hope that they miss out on the 8th seed because I heading up early in the morning on Thursday but still won't get into NYC until noon. and then i would have to somehow get over to Brooklyn from Time Square. Best case I would see the second half. I am really hoping for any game after the noon tip off.

PS has anyone figured out the odds of what each seed would be? Out of the 5 seeds we can still get, what is the most likely?

[chico]

If GW beats UD, is it possible for them to be left at home? It appears that way.

[GoMuskies]

If GW beats UD, is it possible for them to be left at home? It appears that way.

Yes. Charlotte has to beat St. Joes at home, and the Bonnies and Spiders have to beat Fordham and Duquesne (cannot remember who is playing who). Certainly a possibility.

[XU '11]

I really hope that they miss out on the 8th seed because I heading up early in the morning on Thursday but still won't get into NYC until noon. and then i would have to somehow get over to Brooklyn from Time Square. Best case I would see the second half. I am really hoping for any game after the noon tip off.

PS has anyone figured out the odds of what each seed would be? Out of the 5 seeds we can still get, what is the most likely?

I think...

#4 with a XAV win & TEM loss (25%) {18%}
#5 with a XAV win & TEM win (25%) {12%}
#6 with a XAV loss, MAS loss, & SJU loss (12.5%) {7.9%}
#7 with a XAV loss and a loss by MAS OR SJU (25%) {31.2%}
#8 with a XAV loss, MAS win & SJU win (12.5%) {30.1%}

Numbers in braces use game odds provided by sagarin...

[GoMuskies]

Those would be the odds if each game was a coinflip. Unfortunately, Xavier is probably looking at about a 25% win probability.

VCU is probably something like 70% to beat Temple, UMass is maybe 85% to beat URI, and SJU is probably 50/50 at Charlotte.

With that, I'll say

#4: 17.5%
#5: 7.5%
#6: 6%
#7: 37%
#8: 32%