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vee4xu
11-05-2012, 04:46 PM
We have pick the score for XU games. Here is pick the electoral college the day before the election.

My guess: Obama 281 minimum

If things go as trending, add Virginia and Colorado: Obama 303

Romney did have a chance in mid-October, but all sources point to it maxing out and trending BO

Chime in if you wish.

Snipe
11-05-2012, 06:09 PM
What are the contest rules? What are the tie-breakers? Is their a site where you can create your own electoral college map and then link to it here?

And what title and awards go to the winner. You can't have a contest without prizes!

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 06:12 PM
No rules and the prize is celebration drinks with you and your Obama neighbors.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 06:15 PM
Oh and if Mitt wins, then your prize is trying to figure out which Mitt will actually be President.

GoMuskies
11-05-2012, 06:36 PM
269-269

Snipe
11-05-2012, 06:38 PM
If Obama were to win the popular vote but they tied 269-269 and the House selected Romney you would have riots.

GoMuskies
11-05-2012, 06:39 PM
If Obama were to win the popular vote but they tied 269-269 and the House selected Romney you would have riots.

I hope your end of society shelter is ready to go then.

Snipe
11-05-2012, 07:08 PM
I got an Obama sign in my window to show solidarity with the occupiers. We also have guns and ammo and rations packed and ready to go.

xsteve1
11-05-2012, 07:29 PM
What if Obama was white? I'm not an Obama or Romney guy but I'd like to know if there were ever any hypothetical polls done. I got to think it wouldn't be close.

paulxu
11-05-2012, 07:32 PM
Snipe,
Assuming you haven't been listening to Dick Morris, how did you get Wisconsin and Minnesota into Mitt's camp?
I think the former is polling about +3 for Obama and the latter about +9.

Mel Cooley XU'81
11-05-2012, 07:35 PM
Well, I've got a PhD in Political Science,* so here goes.

Romney 275 - Obama 263.

* Thank you Neil Heighberger, Fr. Johnson, SJ, and Jon Moulton.

Snipe
11-05-2012, 07:55 PM
What if Obama was white? I'm not an Obama or Romney guy but I'd like to know if there were ever any hypothetical polls done. I got to think it wouldn't be close.

If Obama was White he wouldn't have gotten out of the primaries. Think of a lesser accomplished John Edwards. No Ivy League either. The thing I like best about him is that he is half black.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 08:00 PM
Despite who wins the election tomorrow between Obama and Romney, the real winners are the big donors. This has been a huge problem for me since summertime. The Citizens United decision said that corporations are essentially people. I invite you to look at the attached link from Pro Publica to review the bucks that have poured in from both sides. I am worried about democracy with this unfettered, unchecked money spending.

Dark Money (http://projects.propublica.org/pactrack/#committee=all)

GoMuskies
11-05-2012, 08:00 PM
What if Obama was white?

Obama's as white as he is black.

GoMuskies
11-05-2012, 08:02 PM
Despite who wins the election tomorrow between Obama and Romney, the real winners are the big donors.

How are those guys big winners? They spent a shit-ton of money, and because the other side could do the same each dollar was less and less effective. I'd say the only winners were ad salesmen.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 08:10 PM
Do you get to go visit the winner in the Oval Office by virtue of your support for whatever candiate you vote for? I'll bet (no pun intended) Sheldon Adleson gets to visit Mitt Romney if he wins. Or Mundy Katowitz of Media, Inc gets in to see President Obama for the $10 million he donated.

xsteve1
11-05-2012, 08:11 PM
Despite who wins the election tomorrow between Obama and Romney, the real winners are the big donors. This has been a huge problem for me since summertime. The Citizens United decision said that corporations are essentially people. I invite you to look at the attached link from Pro Publica to review the bucks that have poured in from both sides. I am worried about democracy with this unfettered, unchecked money spending.

Dark Money (http://projects.propublica.org/pactrack/#committee=all)

I really wish they would put some sort of limit on spending and put that money to good use.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 08:11 PM
Obama's as white as he is black.

Word. People forget this fact.

GoMuskies
11-05-2012, 08:13 PM
Do you get to go visit the winner in the Oval Office by virtue of your support for whatever candiate you vote for? I'll bet (no pun intended) Sheldon Adleson gets to visit Mitt Romney if he wins. Or Mundy Katowitz of Media, Inc gets in to see President Obama for the $10 million he donated.

Wasn't Clinton running a virtual B&B out fo the White House back in the pre-Citizens United days? I don't think these donors are getting greater access. I think it's just costing them more now.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 08:14 PM
I really wish they would put some sort of limit on spending and put that money to good use.

Citizens United (http://www.opensecrets.org/news/reports/citizens_united.php)

Start out by digging into this site. All of this stuff started in 2010 with the Supreme Court ruling.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 08:17 PM
Wasn't Clinton running a virtual B&B out fo the White House back in the pre-Citizens United days? I don't think these donors are getting greater access. I think it's just costing them more now.

Fair enough. I just think maybe they are getting the access because of the bigger bucks. They also want to write the legislation which really gets scary.

GoMuskies
11-05-2012, 08:17 PM
It did not start in 2010. It may have gotten "worse" then, but PACs are not new.

It's great fiscal stimulus coming from private money, too.

vee4xu
11-05-2012, 08:20 PM
It did not start in 2010. It may have gotten "worse" then, but PACs are not new.

It's great fiscal stimulus coming from private money, too.

Agree PACs have been around for a long time, Citizens United was passed in 2010 and this decision put PACs in hyperdrive with no dollar limits.

gladdenguy
11-05-2012, 08:49 PM
This is my cheat sheet for tomorrow

States to decide
Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10).

Obama States
California - 55
Oregon - 7 (62)
Washington - 12 (74)
Minnesota - 10 (84)
Illinois - 20 (104)
New York - 29 (133)
Maine - 4 (137)
Vermont - 3 (140)
Massachusetts - 11 (151)
Connecticut - 7 (158)
Rhode Island - 4 (162)
New Jersey - 14 (176)
Delaware - 3 (179)
Maryland - 10 (189)
District of Columbia - 3 (192)
Hawaii - 4 (196)

Leaning Obama
New Mexico 5 - (201)
Pennsylvania 20 - (221)
Michigan 16 - (237)

Romney States -
Alaska - 3
Idaho - 4 (7)
Utah - 6 (13)
Wyoming - 3 (16)
North Dakota - 3 (19)
South Dakota - 3 (22)
Nebraska - 5 (27)
Kansas - 6 (33)
Oklahoma - 7 (40)
Texas - 38 (78)
Louisiana - 8 (86)
Arkansas - 6 (92)
Missouri - 10 (102)
Mississippi - 6 (108)
Georgia - 16 (124)
Kentucky - 8 (132)
Indiana - 11 (143)
West Virginia - 5 (148)
Alabama - 9 (157)
South Carolina - 9 (166)

Leaning Romney
Arizona - 11 (177)
North Carolina - 15 (192)

X-band '01
11-05-2012, 09:06 PM
Obama 281
Romney 257

Snipe
11-06-2012, 05:45 AM
Romney's best numbers are that he is winning independents by a good margin. They say it all comes down to turnout, and I can't imagine Republicans in Ohio not turning out in massive numbers. With a good turnout and the independent vote, Ohio won't even be close.

xu95
11-06-2012, 07:52 AM
it is either going to be very close or a run away by Romney. I just don't see Obama winning by a lot. Oh, and Romney will win the popular vote.

nuts4xu
11-06-2012, 08:31 AM
Obama's as white as he is black.

Yes but he is black where it counts.

blueblob06
11-06-2012, 08:51 AM
With zero percent of precincts reporting, we can safely call at least half of America pissed off at the end of the night tonight.

GoMuskies
11-06-2012, 08:56 AM
With zero percent of precincts reporting, we can safely call at least half of America pissed off at the end of the night tonight.

My guess is slightly less than half.

MCXU
11-06-2012, 09:15 AM
Romney - 316
Obama - 222

GoMuskies
11-06-2012, 09:35 AM
My actual expectation is an Obama runaway in the electoral college. I think he will win virtually every "battleground" state by relatively narrow margins and take the popular vote by something like 49-47 (with Mickey Mouse running a strong third).

ArizonaXUGrad
11-06-2012, 09:36 AM
My guess is slightly less than half.

Public reps, I get 288 - 250 BO but who really knows. We will in about 12-14 hours.

That said ever since that horrid Supreme Court decision in 2000, this country has been amazingly divisive to the point of open anger from the extreme. I was much younger before 2000 so it's possible I just don't remember it right, but after 2000 presidential elections have become extremely personal for a lot of voters to the point where I have seen people take bragging rights.

To correlate it with us, XU had a tough offseason. I get that we need to stand by them through thick and thin and if we truly love our School we should stand by them when they make mistakes. I feel like people do the same with politicians. We stand by them even when they make the worst of mistakes. Maybe we just need to be a little less loyal to our politicians and their party affiliation and just vote for who is the right candidate now.

Seriously, Bush was in office for 8 years and he was probably the worst president since Nixon and this country is still here. I think we will be fine with whomever gets elected.

American X
11-06-2012, 09:38 AM
Romney 295 - Obama 243 (http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bsoy)

All eyes on VA which closes at 7pm ET - must win for Romney. If Obama wins VA, Willard is D.O.A.

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Ohio get Romney to exactly 270. All Eastern time zone - could be decisive early.

ChicagoX
11-06-2012, 09:50 AM
Obama - 290
Romney - 248

I think Romney edges Obama in Virginia, but it will be so close that by the time the state is called for Romney, the election will be over and Obama will have won.

vee4xu
11-06-2012, 09:55 AM
Intrade currently Obama 72.5% and Romney 27.5 %. That's up 4.3% for O and down 5.4% for R just today. Just less than 2 weeks ago O was 59% and R was 40%.

GoMuskies
11-06-2012, 09:57 AM
Intrade currently Obama 72.5% and Romney 27.5 %. That's up 4.3% for O and down 5.4% for R just today. Just less than 2 weeks ago O was 59% and R was 40%.

I thought about putting all the money in my sports book account on Obama at -300 last night. Seemed like a good bet, and I would have been okay with losing.

blueblob06
11-06-2012, 10:06 AM
I thought about putting all the money in my sports book account on Obama at -300 last night. Seemed like a good bet, and I would have been okay with losing.
I check my sports book every month or so to see the political odds. Very interesting to see how it changes over time. It was wild seeing the swings in odds for the Republican nominee as candidates joined the race, made mistakes, had straw polls, etc. A while back, I bet a few bucks on who Romney would pick as VP with I think 30 to 1 odds (didn't pick Ryan though). Gambling is the one way I've found that politics can be fun. Haven't looked in a while but last time I saw you could bet who would win individual states, pretty wild.

Edit: Just checked and odds are still up to bet the winner, here's what they have it at now...
Barack Obama -360
Mitt Romney +280

All other odds were taken down.

chico
11-06-2012, 10:58 AM
Fair enough. I just think maybe they are getting the access because of the bigger bucks. They also want to write the legislation which really gets scary.

I thought they wanted a say in who started, who should get kicked off the team and who the coach was.

Oh, wrong big money donors?

I agree with Go. Obama has a very slight lead in most battleground states so he'll win those, but the overall numbers will be very close.

xu95
11-06-2012, 11:11 AM
Seriously, Bush was in office for 8 years and he was probably the worst president since Nixon and this country is still here. I think we will be fine with whomever gets elected.


You have either forgotten the name Jimmy Carter or you are seriously off your rocker.

bobbiemcgee
11-06-2012, 11:25 AM
Bush was the worst ever. WH Harrison was better. OK, maybe a tie with the Peanut Farmer. Obama in a squeaker.

ArizonaXUGrad
11-06-2012, 11:47 AM
You have either forgotten the name Jimmy Carter or you are seriously off your rocker.

First off Nixon was an outright criminal and participated in elections fraud and Bush and his cronies outed a CIA agent. That is enough for me to call them the worst of the last 100 years.

Remember for Carter's misses on Iran, Olympic boycott, and the energy crisis, he had hits for Superfund, deregulation of the home brewer beer industry, and coming from the Energy crisis he promoted alternative sources of energy.

He might have had more misses than hits but at least he wasn't doing anything illegal. Remember also that Iran was ended the day after left office and Reagan was guilty of selling arms to Iran and letting Oliver North take the fall. Carter might not have been a strong president but you could argue he was our last without a major scandal. Well, Obama hasn't been caught doing anything egregiously illegal or terrible....yet.

ArizonaXUGrad
11-06-2012, 11:51 AM
Bush was the worst ever. WH Harrison was better. OK, maybe a tie with the Peanut Farmer. Obama is a squeaker.

It would be tough for Bush's fail to be out Nixon and Warren Harding but I think it's right up there.

vee4xu
11-06-2012, 12:11 PM
Lawsuit filed in Ohio over ballot counting software. Here we go!!!!!

gladdenguy
11-06-2012, 12:24 PM
Lets just call Nixon and George Bush the two worst presidents. I'm fine with that and most of us can agree on those two morons.

ArizonaXUGrad
11-06-2012, 12:24 PM
Lawsuit filed in Ohio over ballot counting software. Here we go!!!!!

Link? Good Lord.

gladdenguy
11-06-2012, 12:32 PM
Link? Good Lord.

http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/19336

paulxu
11-06-2012, 02:23 PM
deregulation of the home brewer beer industry,

This sounds like a good idea. But, since I'm not a beer drinker, he could have worked on the home liquor industry to really hit a winner.
(Not that we need it down here. Still some stills, as they say, back up in the foothills.)

ArizonaXUGrad
11-07-2012, 10:36 AM
This sounds like a good idea. But, since I'm not a beer drinker, he could have worked on the home liquor industry to really hit a winner.
(Not that we need it down here. Still some stills, as they say, back up in the foothills.)

Like I said though, a lot more misses than hits but in the end he seemingly was an honest guy. Stills are still illegal because the product and can serious damage to your health amongst other tax implications.

I am by no means defending Carter but I would put solidly ahead of Nixon/GWB but not ahead of GHWB.

We really need a Truman 2.0 or Eisenhower 2.0, you get the idea. What made Truman so great was that he was literally an outsider even in his own party to the extent that Roosevelt didn't even like him. I loved how he attacked defense contractors as a Senator.

ArizonaXUGrad
11-07-2012, 10:37 AM
This sounds like a good idea. But, since I'm not a beer drinker, he could have worked on the home liquor industry to really hit a winner.
(Not that we need it down here. Still some stills, as they say, back up in the foothills.)

Weird, computer double posted this.