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dc_x
02-20-2008, 10:10 AM
Updated 3/3

Changes from last time:


Stock up-

Washington St. - from should be in to LOCK
Mississippi St. - from should be in to LOCK
Miami (FL) - from bubble to SHOULD BE IN
USC - from bubble to SHOULD BE IN
UNLV - from bubble to SHOULD BE IN
Illinois St - from bubble out to BUBBLE IN

Stock down-

Houston - from bubble in to BUBBLE OUT





Locks (23):

Duke (ACC), North Carolina (ACC), Connecticut (BE), Georgetown (BE), Notre Dame (BE), Louisville (BE), Marquette (BE), Indiana (B10), Purdue (B10), Wisconsin (B10), Michigan St (B10), Texas (B12), Kansas (B12), Stanford (P10), UCLA (P10), Washington St. (P10), Vanderbilt (SEC), Tennessee (SEC), Mississippi St (SEC), Xavier (A10), Memphis (CUSA), Drake (MVC), Butler (Horizon),

Probably in, but need to keep winning to be a lock (11):

Clemson (ACC), Miami (FL), Pitt (BE), Arizona (P10), USC (P10), St Mary’s (WCC), Gonzaga (WCC), BYU (MWC), UNLV (MWC), Kent St. (MAC), South Alabama (Sun Belt)


The 34 teams above should win the following leagues’ auto bids: ACC, BE, B10, B12, P10, SEC, A10, CUSA, MVC, Horizon, WCC, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC (14 auto bids)

These conferences will get the remaining auto bids: WAC, CAA, Big West, Southern, MAAC, ASun, Summit, Big Sky, OH Valley, Ivy [Cornell], AEast, BSouth, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, Morgan St (17 auto bids)


That leaves 14 spots for the bubble (65 – 31 auto bids – 20 at-large bids = 14 remaining spots). Obviously, conference tournament upsets will shrink the bubble, but let’s assume the chalk holds in the conference tournaments.

So here are the teams that are fighting for the 14 bubble spots:

Projected IN:

1. Kansas St (B12)
2. Oklahoma (B12)
3. Baylor (B12)
4. Texas A&M (B12)
5. Arkansas (SEC)
6. Arizona St (P10)
7. West Virginia (BE)
8. UAB (CUSA)
9. UMass (A10)
10. Illinois St (MVC)

Last 4 IN:

11. Maryland (ACC)
12. Florida (SEC)
13. New Mexico (MWC)
14. Virginia Tech (ACC)


Last 8 OUT:

15. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
16. Syracuse (BE)
17. Houston (CUSA)
18. Kentucky (SEC)
19. Southern Illinois (MVC)
20. St. Joseph's (A10)
21. Dayton (A10)
22. Ohio State (B10)

Other teams to consider:

23. Wake Forest (ACC)
24. NC State (ACC)
25. Oregon (P10)
26. Ole Miss (SEC)
27. Cal (P10)
28. Seton Hall (BE)
29. Texas Tech (B12)
30. Rhode Island (A10)
31. Villanova (BE)
32. George Mason (CAA)
33. Oklahoma St. (B12)
34. Creighton (MVC)


Projected as an auto bid from a 1-bid league, but would be IN if they did not win their conference tournament (“the bubble killers”):

Kent State (MAC)
South Alabama (Sun Belt)
Drake (MVC)
Butler (Horizon)

Projected as an auto bid from a 1-bid league, but would be a BUBBLE team if they did not win their conference tournament:

Oral Roberts (Summit)
VCU (CAA)
Davidson (Southern)


I will keep this updated through selection Sunday.

dc_x
02-20-2008, 10:11 AM
Here are my thoughts.

These teams should be out:

1. Syracuse – Only 2 good wins (St. Joes and GTown) and they were both at home.
2. Oregon – 15-10 overall and 6-7 in the PAC10 is not good enough. And they will lose twice more this week (@USC and @UCLA).

And I would replace them with these 2:

1. UMass – They are 7-6 against the RPI top 100 with 4 top-50 wins. They beat Syracuse on the road.
2. Wake Forest – They went 10-3 against a so-so non-can schedule, but all 3 losses were on the road (@ Charlotte, @ Vandy, @ Georgia). They beat a very good BYU team and are 6-5 in the best conference in the country with a win against Duke.

Ohio St’s resume is way too imcomplete right now. They only have 2 decent wins – Syracuse on a neutral court and Florida at home. They are 8-5 in the B10, but they have not beaten any of the top-4 teams in the Big 10. But 4 of their last 5 games are @ Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. They probably need to win at least 2 of those games.

XU '11
02-21-2008, 09:58 PM
UMass got a huge win over Rhodey Thursday. Coming into this week, URI was the team most solidly into the tourney (other than X of course), and UMass was a team squarely on the bubble. It would appear that this win could put UMass IN for the time being. However, URI has now moved onto the bubble with two consecutive home losses, but to very good teams. I'd say both URI and UMass are in right now with SJU and Dayton being on the outside looking in.

GuyFawkes38
02-21-2008, 10:06 PM
The A 10 should get at least 3 teams in the tourney (I now consider Umass a confortably in). URI and SJU are on the bubble. Maybe both teams can get in.

XU '11
02-21-2008, 10:20 PM
I still feel like Dayton has a shot. Their numbers still warrant consideration, and if they can be at least 6-4 in their last 10 (a loss to Xavier/St Joes + a loss in A10 semis for example), they will have a very good resume despite their current bad stretch. However, they obviously need to start playing some better basketball for this to happen.

Cheesehead
02-21-2008, 11:14 PM
It seems strange to believe that (3-4) A-10 teams could make the field depending on how things play out. What a remarkable turnaround. I could see UMASS and St. Joe's making it. I think Rhody is on the bubble now w/ these last 2 losses and UD is looking more and more NIT bound.

X-band '01
02-22-2008, 05:53 AM
UMass will be an interesting case in that St. Joe's swept them, but now they have a trump card with 2 wins over URI along with wins over Houston and Syracuse and BC on the road.

jdm2000
02-22-2008, 06:26 AM
I'd say Dayton is NIT-bound without a win in the A-10 tourney. Losing to LaSalle is a crippling blow--seven league losses already, and with games left against X and St. Joe's, they're looking at a sub-.500 league record. That ain't going to get it done.

jdm2000
02-24-2008, 10:09 PM
Huge win today for St. Joe's over URI. If UMass and SJU can finish strong, they can put themselves in good shape. Rams are in freefall. Ugh.

dc_x
02-25-2008, 02:59 PM
I updated this with the 2/25 Bracketology and 2/24 Bubble Watch from espn.com.

A few thoughts:

- When you actually look at the whole bubble, UMass and St. Joe's are both in decent shape. Look at the "Last 8 out"....there are some teams with really crappy resumes there.

UMass's remaining schedule is @Rich, LaS, @GW. They should be able to win all 3 and get to 10-6 in the league. They would be in great shape then.

SJU has a very favorable schedule, too - SLU, Tem, XU, @UD. I think a 3-1 finish to get to 11-5 gets the Hawks in.

- Don't count URI out. They finish with @GW, @LaS, UNCC. If they can win out, they could be ok.

- Count UD out. They are done.

- Ohio St is the one team that is in that I most disagree with. But they still have IU on the road and Michigant St and Purdue at home. I think they need to win 2 of the 3 to feel safe.

XU '11
02-25-2008, 03:17 PM
What fans of the A10 (not necessarily Xavier) should be rooting for:

2/27
Rhode Island over GW

2/28
St Joe's over SLU

3/1
Rhode Island over La Salle
Dayton over Fordham
UMass over Richmond
Xavier over GW

3/2
St Joe's over Temple

3/5
Dayton over St Bonaventure
UMass over La Salle
St Joe's over Xavier

3/8
Dayton over St Joe's
Rhode Island over Charlotte
Xavier over Richmond
UMass over GW

Which would give us:

Xavier 26-5 (14-2) (7 RPI)
St Joseph's 20-9 (11-5) (36 RPI)
Massachusetts 21-9 (10-6) (35 RPI)
Rhode Island 23-8 (9-7) (49 RPI)
Dayton 20-9 (8-8) (34 RPI)

We'd be looking very good for 5 bids. I know this isn't likely, but it's still a possibility, especially given how weak the bubble is this year.

dc_x
02-25-2008, 03:43 PM
Very optimistic '11. Especially the part about UD going 3-0.

I want to point out that by next weekend there will probably be 1 auto-bid in the field. The Cornell Big Red just need a home Friday/Saturday sweep of lowly Dartmouth and Harvard to lock up the Ivy League auto bid. It will be the first time in 20 years that someone other than Penn or Princeton has won the Ivy league.

SpeX
02-25-2008, 07:48 PM
Let's just say UMass, St Joes, and URI win out. UMass and St Joes lose in the semi-finals and URI loses in the A10 championship. We would all probably assume that these three teams were pretty solid for at large bids and the A10 gets 4 altogether.

If a team like Charlotte runs the table and wins the tourney, don't you think one of the three teams above would be knocked off their at-large bid as a result?

I know the tournament committee claims not to look at the number of teams per conference, but I will never forget when Lamar Odom hit that damn buzzer beater to win the A10 in whatever year, and it virtually knocked X out of the tourney. If that shot did not go down, I am pretty certain X would have been in.

dc_x
02-29-2008, 02:50 PM
Updated with 2/29 bracketology. UMass and Xavier are the only 2 A-10 teams in. St. Joe's is close.

URI and UD are falling off the radar.

dc_x
03-03-2008, 03:57 PM
Updated on 3/3.

A few notes:

- Bubble Watch still has Arizona as "should be in", but Lunardi projects them as a 9 seed, so they are closer to the bubble.
- UMass is projected as a 13 seed, but is not one of the last 4 in. Must be some sort of seed reshuffling.
- Dayton moved up to the last 8 out group. The bubble is so weak this year, that if they can get Chris Wright back and look good, they could be in pretty good shape.

dc_x
03-11-2008, 08:57 AM
I am going to stop updating this - CBSSports has a bubble page that lays out the whole bubble - http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/bubble

jdm2000
03-13-2008, 08:27 PM
Good day today for A10 bubble teams. UMass just needs to keep winning and they'll be in. It's actually setting up okay for St. Joe's as well--if they beat us tomorrow, it could be all they need, given how many other bubble teams are losing right away. Even UD looks good on paper--but I think they're out.

waggy
03-13-2008, 11:35 PM
Loss to Charlotte really hurts UMass. Their RPI is now just 48 per RealTime.

jdm2000
03-14-2008, 06:05 AM
I clearly spoke too soon about UMass. Yeeesh. Today could be a win and they're in type game for St. Joe's.

jdm2000
03-15-2008, 09:16 AM
You know, as badly as bubble teams around the country have played, it's not impossible to think that the A10 could squeak four teams in--either X, Temple (winning tonight), SJU and UMass or X, SJU winning tonight, UMass and Dayton.

I think we'll get three.

Billy
03-15-2008, 12:15 PM
You know, as badly as bubble teams around the country have played, it's not impossible to think that the A10 could squeak four teams in--either X, Temple (winning tonight), SJU and UMass or X, SJU winning tonight, UMass and Dayton.

I think we'll get three.

UMass has absolutely no chance. Yes, their RPI is borderline...but they have zero wins against NCAA Tourney teams.

What argument could they make that they have the ability to beat any of the other teams selected?

vee4xu
03-15-2008, 12:22 PM
I see it as X, SJU and Temple no matter who wins tonight. After a rough start, Temple has played pretty consistently and was 11-5 in the conference. If Temple wins, it will be tough not to take SJU because they beat X twice in one week. That is huge despite bad losses to Duquesne and LaSalle. If SJU wins, Temple is a stronger case as runner-up than SJU and are pretty much a lock.

THRILLHOUSE
03-15-2008, 02:00 PM
I think UMass could sneak in since they were in before the A10 tournament and none of the other bubble teams did anything to make a claim that they should be in the tourney. Now I don't think it is very likely that they make it but they do have a little hope, and hope is never a bad thing. They will need to root against Georgia and winner of Illinois/Minnesota. Right now I am just happy that only thing we have to worry about is seeding because I can't remember a year with so many bubble teams.

BlueGuy
03-15-2008, 06:11 PM
I figured this would be a good picture to go along with this thread.
http://66.79.163.197/_images/articles/2008/03/14/299748332_7a11bc8747.jpg