Kentucky Derby 2010

[BBC 08]

Alright, it's that time of year. Derby is only 9 days away. With it so close I thought I'd start the thread for any and all Derby discussion.

To get in the Derby mindset I urge everyone to read the following: The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved by Hunter S. Thompson (http://brianb.freeshell.org/a/kddd.pdf)

Pour yourself a mint julep and lets get this party started.

[bourbonman]

Awesome Act & Eskandereya exacta box. Watch out for Ice Box. Sydney's Candy may hang on for a piece.

Lots of speed in this one. Could be looking at a 22.4 and a 46 in the first splits. Race will fall apart for this speed setting up closers. Lots of studying to do.

I love taking the hat money all weekend, even if I don't get it in the Derby!

[golfitup]

I'll be in the infield this year. I'll be take Bluto's advice that day.

[bourbonman]

With the scratch of Eskendereya this morning, Looking at Lucky will be the new favorite. Fine by me. Let the masses focus on other horses and don't drive my value down.

I still like Awesome Act and now Ice Box even more. Am taking a strong look at Super Saver as well. AND Jackson Bend may now get into the race. This gorse has never been less than 2nd and has a great stalking style which will be good for this race.

[BBC 08]

Why they can win the Kentucky Derby...and why not (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100426/SPORTS08/4250338/1002/sports/Jennie+Rees+|+Why+they+can+win+the+Kentucky+Derby+ …+and+why+they+cannot)

[xavierj]

I like Sydney's Candy, Ice Box, Conveyance and have a feeling with Dean's Kitten. The Ramsey's might finally get a derby win.

One other thing. This is a rider's race so you have to put value on horses ridden by Mike Smith, Garrett Gomez, Calvin Borel, Desormeaux, Prado and Robby Albarado in this race. Just my two cents.

[BBC 08]

I like Sydney's Candy, Ice Box, Conveyance and have a feeling with Dean's Kitten. The Ramsey's might finally get a derby win.

One other thing. This is a rider's race so you have to put value on horses ridden by Mike Smith, Garrett Gomez, Calvin Borel, Desormeaux, Prado and Robby Albarado in this race. Just my two cents.

I second your comment on it being a rider's race. The only reason I bet on (and won) Mine that Bird last year was because Borel was the jockey.

[bourbonman]

Looking like Jackson Bend will definitely get in with Rule definitely out and Interactif looking doubtful. This is even with the filly Devil May Care going Derby and not the Oaks. Can't wait for the Post Positions on Wednesday.

[BBC 08]

Looking like Jackson Bend will definitely get in with Rule definitely out and Interactif looking doubtful. This is even with the filly Devil May Care going Derby and not the Oaks. Can't wait for the Post Positions on Wednesday.

I wish that was still being televised on espn.

[bourbonman]

I wish that was still being televised on espn.

BBC, it will be televised live on HRTV and on local Louisville stations WHAS, WLKY and WAVE from noon to 12:30 today. I will post it here as soon as I can get the Past Performances for the entries (which are available but I wnat them in post position order).

BTW, the draw has returned to a traditional pill pull and taking the connections out of the process. Therefore and entry will be drawn and the pill with a post position will be drawn and assinged to that entry. No more BS!

[bourbonman]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112526.html

Look for horses that can do the mud. 2 to 4 inches from Frday night through Sunday with most on Saturday.

[ballyhoohoo]

I like Sydney's Candy, Ice Box, Conveyance and have a feeling with Dean's Kitten. The Ramsey's might finally get a derby win.

One other thing. This is a rider's race so you have to put value on horses ridden by Mike Smith, Garrett Gomez, Calvin Borel, Desormeaux, Prado and Robby Albarado in this race. Just my two cents.

Desormeaux won me a ton of money last year

[ballyhoohoo]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112526.html

Look for horses that can do the mud. 2 to 4 inches from Frday night through Sunday with most on Saturday.

Looks like grass horses may not be the ones to pick. So long deans kitten and Stately Victor

[ballyhoohoo]

I like:
Icebox, Super Saver, Conveyance, and Line of David

[xavierj]

I have changed my thinking. I now am going with Sydney's Candy with line of David, Jackson Bend and Devil May Care. Really starting to like Line of David.

[SixFig]

Not gonna lie I pick horses based on who has the coolest name.

[BENWAR]

I have a daughter named Sydney that likes to eat candy.

Enough said!:D

[bourbonman]

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/pps/derby2010classic.pdf

Still like Ice Box (even with #2 post since he'll be saving ground anyway), Super Saver (loves the track) and Awesome Act (even with all the trouble he seems to get into). Not throwing out Lucky (but that post sucks), Jackson Bend (always 1st or 2nd) and Sidney's Candy (one of the speed horses will hold on for a piece and since he's outside I figure they will try to rate him a bit - trouble is he's NEVER done this AND his jockey has NEVER ridden at Churchill).

Now predicting 2 to 3 inches of rain on Saturday. Bring boots!

[yougotdbagged]

I will offer this advice, do not get sucked in to Lookin at Lucky or Sidney's Candy. Besides Giacomo, Santa Anita horses do not run well in the Derby. I also doubt Sidney's Candy can lead for the mile and a quarter. Now if it rains, that could all change because I prefer a stalker or lead horse in the mud. With that said, I really like the form of Jackson's Bend and if he can take a step forward it will pay nicely.

[xavierj]

Isn't Joe talamo on sydneys candy? He has ridden at Churchill. They are now calling for dry conditions from around 11 am until after derby so track should be fair by post.

[ballyhoohoo]

The reason I am leaning towards Icebox is that he is a local horse who in the past has run very well at Churchill and likes the track. I like supersaver mainly because Calvin Borel and that the horse is bread for distance. If Calvin can stalk the pack and make his move watch out.

[bourbonman]

Isn't Joe talamo on sydneys candy? He has ridden at Churchill. They are now calling for dry conditions from around 11 am until after derby so track should be fair by post.

Talamo is a Churchill virgin.

While the rain may let up after the morning, the amount of rain they're forecasting (2+") will still impact the track even tough it's a track that drains well and they will seal it overnight.

I would prefer a fast track so the speed sets up as predicted and then falls apart for some good stalkers and finishers. But, there's time to rethink a strategy for my investment for the rain.

[xavierj]

Talamo is a derby virgin but has raced and won at Churchill. He was scheduled to ride in derby last year but horse was scratched. He raced on oaks day and derby undercard. Also raced in a stakes race last fall. He will also have mounts this week before he rides in derby.

[Emp]

The reason I am leaning towards Icebox is that he is a local horse who in the past has run very well at Churchill and likes the track. I like supersaver mainly because Calvin Borel and that the horse is bread for distance. If Calvin can stalk the pack and make his move watch out.

I love that distance bread! Sprinter bread is for wimps.

In other news, forget combing the Racing Form for mudders, its going to take a swimmer if the weather forecast holds up.

[BBC 08]

So I'm watching Oaks coverage today and one of the local stations is talking to out of town folks who came in for the weekend. One of the ones they spoke to was from dayton and when asked what is the big thing to do in dayton the lady quickly said that there is nothing there. It made for great television.

[bourbonman]

Track conditions not impacting the races so far in that it's not favoring speed, stalkers or closers. And just when we were convinced horses had to stay from the rail, Calvin Borel goes start to finish on the rail. Super Box on Super Saver, Ice Box, Awesome Act, Jackson Bend and Conveyance.

Good luck to all!

[BBC 08]

Hit $5 to win on Super Saver, $5 across the board on Super Saver and $1 trifecta yesterday. Made a great day even better.

[bourbonman]

Hit $5 to win on Super Saver, $5 across the board on Super Saver and $1 trifecta yesterday. Made a great day even better.

08, congrats. I picked up Prado as a cover bet late on Saturday and clipped the tri along with the Win, Place and Exacta. My day appears not to be as good as yours, but for a change the Derby played better for me than the other races.

What did you see in this race. Can't see Super Saver winning the triple, maybe not another of the next three, even if I was high on him for quite some time. Looking forward to seeing who enters what. Love to hook up with you at the track some time.

[Juice]

08, congrats. I picked up Prado as a cover bet late on Saturday and clipped the tri along with the Win, Place and Exacta. My day appears not to be as good as yours, but for a change the Derby played better for me than the other races.

What did you see in this race. Can't see Super Saver winning the triple, amybe not another of the next three, even if I was high on him for quite some time. Looking forward to seeing who enters what. Love to hook up with you at the track some time.

Is there any chance that Eskendreya comes back for the Preakness or Belmont? I saw him run in the derby prep race about a month ago and was very impressed. I think he would wipe the floor with Super Saver if he can get healthy.

[BBC 08]

08, congrats. I picked up Prado as a cover bet late on Saturday and clipped the tri along with the Win, Place and Exacta. My day appears not to be as good as yours, but for a change the Derby played better for me than the other races.

What did you see in this race. Can't see Super Saver winning the triple, amybe not another of the next three, even if I was high on him for quite some time. Looking forward to seeing who enters what. Love to hook up with you at the track some time.

Only reason I bet on Super Saver was Calvin Borel. He helped me break even last year by riding Mine that Bird to victory.

As for the trifecta, that was complete luck. I'm not even going to try to explain that.

[ballyhoohoo]

going in I liked Super Saver, Icebox, and Paddy O'Prado. I was to lazy to run to Turway to place a boxed trifecta on the three horses I liked. I usually bet $10 on a boxed tri. Well ****.

I did throw down $10 on super saver and $10 on Icebox to win. I made money on the day, just not as much. Stupid online gambling sites not having trifectas!

[Emp]

Track conditions not impacting the races so far in that it's not favoring speed, stalkers or closers. And just when we were convinced horses had to stay from the rail, Calvin Borel goes start to finish on the rail. Super Box on Super Saver, Ice Box, Awesome Act, Jackson Bend and Conveyance.

Good luck to all!

That's a pretty good call at 4:44 of race day, Bourbonman.

[bourbonman]

Can't see Super Saver winning the triple, maybe not another of the next three, even if I was high on him for quite some time.

Playing the horses all the time I'm sorry not to have a horse going for the Triple Crown. But I worked against him today and clipped the Exacta and the Tri. Good year so far. Have more than covered the cost of my ticket for the Breeder's Cup.